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sundog
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Posts posted by sundog
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42 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:
Was certainly here in the east of Ireland. 1962-63 and later 2017-18 were sunnier for the UK as a whole, I believe England had its 2nd sunniest behind only 1999-2000. A very frustrating season indeed. Though I wasn't on the scene back then, I've read back about all the hype surrounding it and the "October Pattern Index" which 2014 was very negative and provided hopes for the winter AO/NAO. 2014-15 was one of the most positive NAOs on record in the end. Least it was more seasonable than some of the warmth we've seen. Think your region had a fair amount of snow from the NW'ly on 1st March 2015. Remember a rare mention of Dublin and snow by Peter Gibbs on the BBC forecast as the Six Nations was on in the Aviva that day.
Can't remember early March 2015. The first few days of Feb were the coldest of the winter. Cold snap with frost.
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Was winter 14/15 the sunniest on record for parts of the UK and Ireland? It was a winter that for all the pm air I was always waiting for something more substantial to happen which never did. Frustrating.
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7 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:Given the abnormal warmth we've had recently, I think many of us will take it.
Given the potential size of the cold pool, -6 to-8 uppers would be sufficient for some to see snow, even in October. Plus further to that it' be nice just to have the frosts and a generally cold feeling run up to Halloween and bonfire night.
Agreed I'd take anything thats going at this stage. Beggers can't be choosers for coldies these days. Cold weather adds a lovely ambience to late October/ early Nov imo.
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2 hours ago, MattStoke said:
Even on the warmest ensemble members, a clear downward trend in temperatures following this warm spell.,
Each spring and autumn there is often a point where we have a seasonal switch from warmer to colder conditions or vice versa. Perhaps this is it. Although, with so much anomalous warmth still to our south, it would be foolish to completely rule out the odd warmer spell.
I often think the switch over times of the year are around mid April and mid October.
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Was in Rome for a few days. Flying home yesterday evening crossing the Alps. Probably the only snow I will see over the next few months.
Considering how warm Europe has been recently I was surprised to see any at all.
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1 hour ago, Don said:
It's looking more likely that winter 2023/24 will be added to the very warm September/mild winter list, yes!
Unfortunately it looks like that. I really think this winter will be utter dog s##t. Thankfully I have other hobbies other then weather that will help take my mind off it, to an extent anyway.
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The warm September curse ...ready to strike again........
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There are plenty of deniers out there. Any articles or posts I see on Facebook about climate change have plenty of comments saying it's all nonsense etc. These type of comments then can get over 100 likes etc. Really makes me dispair.
There are plenty of deniers out there. Any articles or posts I see on Facebook have plenty of comments saying it's all nonsense etc. These type of comments then can get over 100 likes etc. Really makes me dispair.
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15 minutes ago, Ajsnowy said:Gfs from next Tuesday onwards looks great for a return to wet and windy weather.
Pathetic attempt of a heatwave trying to hold on for that week.
Pathetic attempt? What do you expect in October????
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1 minute ago, jonboy said:
Agree sleepy.
What people aren't doing is looking at the cause of these extremes they just go co2 driven climate change when it's clearly not. This is water vapour in the stratosphere driven as a result of hunga tonga.
Back to normal in a couple of years.
I admit that eruption could have something to do with what's going on this year. In a few yrs we will find out more I suppose.
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13 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Ah stop with the dramatics, parts of Scandenavia be getting snow end of the week and Iceland, oh no might be another ice-age coming
Perhaps I'm being a bit ott ,but time will tell in the end what happens with the climate.
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11 minutes ago, AWD said:
Worth noting that whether folk “wish” for a particular weather or not, it has no bearing on what the weather actually does. The weather will do what the weather wants to do, regardless!
True of course, but I certainly don't wish for it. Wonder how much the hunga tonga eruption is having an effect on all these temperature records being broken across the planet lately? That combined with climate change and El nino .Parts of Australia having a record start to Oct aswell I see.
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Warmest september on record for a number of countries in Europe, record heat in Spain for oct, likely for France today. I see little to rejoice about. People need to be very careful what they are wishing for.......who knows what's in store much further down the road.
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April 2010 was a very sunny month, cool at times, especially at night.
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If we get a decent winter this year I will be stunned. I'm just not buying into the seasonal models. Also very warm Septembers in recent yrs being followed by poor winters is the hill I will die on........
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23 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
I couldn't care less what leaders, celebrities etc say. The data shows the global climate is warming at a faster rate than can be explained by natural factors. I can see that for myself. That's all that matters. The fact they do whatever they like regardless, is a different topic.
Very true however these people do damage to the climate change debate. So much so that there are many people out there that think its all some kind of conspiracy or hoax to make more money for the rich and powerful.
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3 minutes ago, razorgrain said:
It seems to be a year of contrast so far. Cold anomalies and warm anomalies. I think they had some record cold in south Australia and snowfall in South Africa.
Yes they did have some very cold conditions at some point. But Australia's winter was still their warmest on record as a whole.
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If there is one thing I fear this winter apart from lack of any real cold in this part if the world is serious storm potential and flooding. Warm Atlantic, El Niño, on going warming climate etc. I fear Dec in particular could be a total s#ht show. I think storm potential going into this winter needs to be taken very seriously. Perhaps I'm being a bit OTT and be completely wrong in any case.
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"But if they do come up from the south again ?" ( anomalous warmth) ....and again and again and again..........
Wouldn't be at all surprised if this coming winter is a complete dud.
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1 minute ago, SunSean said:
I actually don't mind frost haha. Give me an ice cold sunny day over grey and wet any day
Frosty weather is one of my favourite weather types. Certainly better then cloud and rain.
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29 minutes ago, SunSean said:
No more model watching for me until next Feb/March I think. All I see is constant Atlantic troughs and low pressure dominance. Doesn't interest me at all so for me personally, I'm hoping the rest of this year goes pretty quick and 2024 will have an abundance of sunshine and high pressure!
......and frost.
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Used to get the first max below 10c during Oct, now its usually the first half of Nov .
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4 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
How about 8 months of horrible dull chilly weather. Dark. Wet. Cold. That enough ?
You will get your hot spells which are becoming more frequent overall. Can't say the same regarding cold spells.
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Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Last week there were a couple of posters that were contradicting about the current warm spell. Now we have others that are contradicting the coming cold spell