mountain shadow
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's three GFS ops runs in a row that is keen to bring in a Northerly of sorts just before Christmas. If the scrooge 0z shows the same then it is time to take notice. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The next two weeks are expected to be mundane. It's after that things may get exciting and that's two GFS Ops in a row with a UK high moving North. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Christmas week again looking promising. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pub run is trying to match just that -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
mountain shadow replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
They say, it's darkest just before dawn. Right now, it's pitch black. The models get worse and worse and I fear Christmas is a bust. -
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
mountain shadow replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
So, the Met Office favour it remaining mild and wet, so, they don't see what some of our teleconnections people see. That is, there must be a predicted teleconnection that may fail. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If memory serves me correctly, once we got inside t+240 the models were pretty much solid on this occurring. If the projected wave signature is as large as forecast then hopefully we'll see a similar countdown. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mid December 2010 redux. Yes please. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pub run on the move here. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Indeed. I think we would all take a return to mild if the cold is to return around Christmas. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
mountain shadow replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It's been a complete failure snow wise for the whole island of Ireland this cold spell. Some nice frosts but not much else. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks fantastic to me, with a proper ridge into Greenland. It's quiet because loads are getting snow in Wales, England and Scotland. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
An Atlantic in full control is one where we see South Westerlies blasting all the way to Russia, we are not seeing that here. -
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That cold pool is saying NO to any Atlantic incursion. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wouldn't normally touch the Icon with a barge pole but I'll guess we'll see shortly if it has any further support. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
mountain shadow replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I'm not seeing a return to mild at all just less cold.