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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    My summary of the overnight runs is a delay to the cold arriving and the depth of cold has been watered down. Still time for change but for Southern areas especially the risk of snow has lowered. Still time for change though as the models struggle with the strat warming.
  2. mountain shadow
    Some unusual and rare physics playing out here, and the models are still a couple of days away from a concensus on the Northerly plunge. It will happen though, of that I'm sure.
  3. mountain shadow
    If an op run produces a run out of kilter with expectations then we should rely on the ensembles. If it has a lot of support then there may be trouble ahead.
  4. mountain shadow
    Strange one from the ECM, lets wait for the ensembles before panicking.
  5. mountain shadow
    What a run that was, a thing of beauty.
  6. mountain shadow
    Been a long time since we've seen a stonking pub run like this.
  7. mountain shadow
    And there's your GFS folks, a day behind the rest. Pure cannon fodder of a model.
  8. mountain shadow
    ECM looks fine to me if you like a higher risk of snow with colder air sinking South against Atlantic Air pushing from the South. Better than the GFS dry UK high offering for sure.
  9. mountain shadow
    I discount the GFS as it is completely different to what the better performing models are showing plus the recent Met Office update. Historically it is known to be days behind on its output.
  10. mountain shadow
    You therefore think the GFS Ops are correct then and the best performing models and the latest Met Office forecast are wrong about Northerlies and snow and ice then? Brave call.
  11. mountain shadow
    Important to remember that we only look at the GFS because of the amount of free stuff it gives us. If the UKMO and ECM provided the amount of free stuff as GFS, we would rarely use it at all.
  12. mountain shadow
    As BOOM from the Met Office as you can get!
  13. mountain shadow
    Good old GFS, no wonder it's a cannon fodder model now. What is it now? The 5th or 6th best model.
  14. mountain shadow
    It looks like a Greenie blocking high to me, ok, the core of the heights aren't over the plateau but Greenland is a big place.
  15. mountain shadow
    Completely disagree Mike. The ECM Ops transition to a Greenie High is as clean as a whistle in my opinion. I just don't want any further delays.
  16. mountain shadow
    Well we're down to t+216 now and the good ship Greenie High is getting closer with the 14th/15th still being the cast off date.
  17. mountain shadow
    I'm actually happier with this run as it gives a lot more snow IMBY than previous runs which were dry North Easterlies for me!
  18. mountain shadow
    Well, if we're talking widespread snow by day 10 on the ecm det, then it is underwhelming. Where it goes after that remains open for question. If you live on the NE of Scotland and England though I would say it's decent.
  19. mountain shadow
    Those poor Cornish though!
  20. mountain shadow
    Eh?
  21. mountain shadow
    Not because it's West based but because of orientation.
  22. mountain shadow
    Charts are rather underwhelming snow wise at the moment away from Eastern counties of Ireland with winds from a NE quadrant. Much colder of course though, we need some instability.
  23. mountain shadow
    Mainly dry with high pressure close by. Much colder with low single figure temps and overnight frost. Maybe some East Coast graupel.
  24. mountain shadow
    I utilise the block function, means you can by pass the wallopers.
  25. mountain shadow
    The ECM Op at day ten made me chuckle. A big fat Greenland High yet it still manages to put us in South Westerlies although it is rPM air. Lots to play for though mid month, we just need to catch a break
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