mountain shadow
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Everything posted by mountain shadow
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Next week doesn't look anything special snow wise at all now away from the North East. Bits of snow here and there then a quick return to wet and windy with some transient snow as the mild moves back in. Still time for change of course, but it all looks a bit meh to me despite the positivity of the background teleconnections.
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We're not really getting a Northerly though, the shortwaves between Scotland and Iceland have put a dampner on that.
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Looks a sleepy mix, probably high ground only. Will probably be looking out the window to see what's falling.
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Dire for Ireland then.
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Yes, we're in the mild sector. Might change if we're lucky.
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12z update before the ECM. UKMO- dry and cold, very little snow GEM- mainly dry and cold, perhaps some snow in a weeks time GFS- Dry and cold, no snow at all. Looks crap to be honest.
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UKV, which is a higher resolution model, has this Monday into Tuesday!
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Yes, the overnight UKMO is better with the NNW flow.
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If we ignore the GFS and GEM I would say the overnight runs are a little better for us as the ECM and UKMO have more of a NNW flow. I have no idea about precipitation amounts though.
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There has to be a flooding concern for Southern areas, if there is a very heavy snowfall followed by heavy rain and a rapid melt of the snow.
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Looks like a brief cold spell anyway now, hardly worth the drama.
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So, the straight Northerly is now in the bin. Looks like we're coming to a solution now 1. Poor Northerly with snow confined to NE Scotland. 2. Then mostly dry for a day or so before somewhere gets impactful snow 3. Snow quickly gone as Atlantic returns. Hardly worth the build up.
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At least England, Wales and Scotland have snow coming. The latest GFS has pretty much no snow for us until next Friday and even then it's a brief affair.
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Well, even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and if the GFS does turn out to be right, its through chance. It's still the fourth best performing model after the ECM, UKMO and GEM. Hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.
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Poor ECM and GFS for Ulster tonight with a failed Northerly and no snow about. The trough on Monday night is rain for us as we're in the mild sector. UKMO and GEM are better. More runs needed.
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The only saving grace, is that this run is completely at odds with the teleconnections and professional forecasts. Its in the bin for me.
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It's actually dry for most of the North away from Eastern Scotland.
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Well, this is a dire run for 80% of the population and even those who see decent snow from the low, it will quickly melt. Hopefully an outlier.
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We're not in the hunt anyway Boofer. Norn Iron looks mainly cold and dry with just the odd flurry.
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Those troughs are not necessarily snow bearing, could simply be bands of cloud. They would weaken significantly as they travelled South.
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12z GFS has no decent snow until a week Friday and even then it turns quickly to rain. Thankfully the UKMO and GEM look much better synoptically.
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I'm still not convinced yet, still looks very dry.
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Much cleaner transition to the Northerly than the GFS or ECM.
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Yes, but it's a pretty snowless run for most as a consequence. Some snow was meant to arrive Monday for many, now we're back to a week away at least outside of Scotland.
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I think it's just a generic all NI thing. He didn't specify a place
