Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

mountain shadow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,186

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    Probably right by default though as it always ramps up the PV. The biggest failure for me is the GWO/EAMT/MT teleconnections which really sucked me in to a proper snow cold spell of a couple of weeks or more.
  2. mountain shadow
    Chicago looking good too.
  3. mountain shadow
    What I find interesting with the MJO is that when it gets into so cold favourable cold sectors for us, that we just get a mid latitude block or brief cold spell like next week. Yet, now that the MJO is moving into unfavourable sectors for cold the NAO goes rock solid positive for weeks. The opposite never seems to occur.
  4. mountain shadow
    And with the lag time between the SSW reaching the troposphere expect a cold March but not cold enough for snow.
  5. mountain shadow
    And yet the models show rain for that trough on Tuesday. Further North the better with altitude.
  6. mountain shadow
    Apologies, the Northerly is still there for Scotland and parts of NE England.
  7. mountain shadow
    My perspectives only a short 48 hours ago was that we would see a proper Northerly with widespread snow showers followed with a high probability of a major snow storm for Central and Southern England, this was to be followed by renewed Greenie blocking. Instead, we've seen the Northerly disappear completely along with the snow storm with mild and wet now more favoured for next weekend. Maybe I've misunderstood the posts by the teleconnections gurus, but it doesn't feel the cold spell offered.
  8. mountain shadow
    Awful runs, absolutely awful. Three or four days of mostly dry cold and then back to mild and wet. Whoopity doo.
  9. mountain shadow
    Yes, I think The UK and Ireland only makes up about 0.1% of the earth's surface, so no matter what the grand synoptic look like, they can easily miss the UK due to a shortwave in the wrong place.
  10. mountain shadow
    So, despite favourable EAMTs, MTs, GWO orbits, MJOs and a weak PV, the long awaited cold spell is now a cold snap with snow pretty much only in Scotland and favourable high ground in the North West. Here's hoping February delivers.
  11. mountain shadow
    As alluded to in previous posts, snow looking more likely in counties Donegal, Antrim and Derry, North of Loch Neagh.
  12. mountain shadow
    I think unlikely, the flow doesn't look great. You however will see big streamers looking out into the Irish Sea.
  13. mountain shadow
    Runs getting crapper by the hour. Snow showers for Northern coastal areas, a trough on Tuesday which will be rain for most as we're in the mild sector, then the Atlantic moving swiftly in next weekend. Two months of snow chasing in the bin.
  14. mountain shadow
    So, three weeks away then. Brilliant.
  15. mountain shadow
    Rain for Northern Ireland and the North West apart from the tops of the Pennines? Doesn't look pleasing too me I'm afraid.
  16. mountain shadow
    Jeezo, is this really what we've chasing for two months? Decent enough for my Scottish brethren but for the rest of us a real led down snow wise.
  17. mountain shadow
    I hear you, but emphasis is more on ice than snow away from the North Derry and Antrim coasts.
  18. mountain shadow
    No one is arguing that synoptically things looks great with rare Arctic air making an appearance and bitter cold is a certainty. What is currently frustrating is the lack of snow falling for 75% of the population. Things could change of course.
  19. mountain shadow
    Mainly ice I suspect away from the North Coast. I fear I will be radar watching seeing snow showers dissipate long before they reach here.
  20. mountain shadow
    Ireland is in the warm sector of that front, the 528dm line(dotted line) is sitting to the North. The 528dm line is generally the snow line, so probably rain or sleep and snow confined to high ground.
  21. mountain shadow
    And shows that even by Tuesday the 528dm line is still only half way down GB and doesn't cover Ireland at all. I think there will be a lot of disappointment next week away from Scotland and North East England.
  22. mountain shadow
    Edit: in fact i see very little evidence of any snow at all bar a few scattered showers along the North coast.
  23. mountain shadow
    I see zero evidence of prolonged snow for the North in the model output.
  24. mountain shadow
    There is no blocking at days 9/10 though. Pretty much all input I've seen shows the cold being swept away next weekend. It will take a marked change in output to change that now.
  25. mountain shadow
    And the 18z GFS says Tuesday!
×
×
  • Create New...