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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    Northward expansion of the Hadley cell due AGW overriding all the favourable teleconnections again it would appear.
  2. mountain shadow
    If there is no move towards developing the Atlantic ridge tomorrow then we can forget about Christmas. An awful days model output.
  3. mountain shadow
    Incorrect. This is just a ridge from the Azores High. A Bartlett is an area of HP extending across the Atlantic and needs to last weeks. The MJO is moving into favourable sectors which will support ringing towards Greenland, even if the are temporary.
  4. mountain shadow
    Not even bugger all, it's worse. Polar North Westerlies replaced by mild South Westerlies. Horrendous ECM.
  5. mountain shadow
    I hope your £150 isn't resting on the JMA!
  6. mountain shadow
    Beautiful. Lovely diving trough. Exactly what we're after
  7. mountain shadow
    That was exactly my thinking too. The ECM Op has consistently underplayed the ridge.
  8. mountain shadow
    East Coast of Scotland in for another battering
  9. mountain shadow
    Depends where you live of course and I doubt Cork gets much snow at the best of times. As ever, the further North you are with height would see plenty.
  10. mountain shadow
    Well, we know who to blame when it all goes Pete Tong.
  11. mountain shadow
    Potentially blizzard like for you on Christmas Day then Dennis. I hope that's the case.
  12. mountain shadow
    Where in Norway do you live Dennis?
  13. mountain shadow
    Christmas starting to look interesting particularly from an Ulster perspective.
  14. mountain shadow
    ECM setting up for a Christmas Northerly like the GFS. I think we're back in the game for the big day
  15. mountain shadow
    Dog with a bone the GFS.
  16. mountain shadow
    I disagree. When looking for potential cold to hit, the area I look at for an indication is around Newfoundland or 'short wave hell alley' I call it. If I see low pressure their then the chances of cold are remote. The t+240 ECM has a building 1035mb high pressure building which may suck up our mid Atlantic HP. Yes, it's a low chance probability but desperate times.
  17. mountain shadow
    That is actually 4 days before Christmas and isn't the worst chart as the PV is on the move from NE Canada towards Scandinavia. It offers a small chance of a ridge as it moves which may allow an Arctic incursion around Christmas.
  18. mountain shadow
    The only smidgin of interest is the day 10 ECM which shows the PV on the move from NE Canada towards Scandanavia, this may allow a ridge around Christmas to Greenland. It is of course a 30-1 long shot.
  19. mountain shadow
    Indeed, weren't most of the seasonal forecasts prior to this showing negative European heights though?
  20. mountain shadow
    Sure, that can't be right, the tele connection gurus are offering a January to remember, all the teleconnections are lining up, no? EQBO, Canadian Warming, el nine, favourable MJO.
  21. mountain shadow
    Very flabby though JS, needs to sharpen up a lot more to have any chance of sustainability.
  22. mountain shadow
    It wasn't just the models though, the tele connection gurus were on board too, but they are jumping ship as expected high amplitude MJO passage in now looking unlikely for reasons unknown.
  23. mountain shadow
    Well, looks like another 'teleconnections ' let down is on the cards. I wonder what unknown unknown will be wheeled out as excuse?
  24. mountain shadow
    6z setting up for another cracker here!
  25. mountain shadow
    Impressive inter run consistency from the GFS. Hopefully it continues..
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