mountain shadow

Aye, was meant tongue in cheek. Precipitation moving West to East now, i wonder if it will be at all wintry on the Northern edge.

Now, theirs an interesting debate on this forum!! Or not, as the case may or may not be..

Nice one Neiller, any settling? I'm at work in Belfast. Just dry and cold down here.

Save your money Essex Winter, very remote chance of snow in the South. Better chance in the North and West. I think even New Year might be pushing it as well for low level snow in the South. Maybe into week 2 of January before any possible colder snowy weather is in place,

Already had four days with falling snow and two days with laying so far this Winter. Nothing major of course, but a damn site better than last year.

Yup, just a case of seeing what falls out the sky. What an improved Winter so far though. Have had 4 days with falling snow and 2 with lying (barely), so not all that bad.

Is this a sign of change in the extended NAO forecasts?. Yes, all but one is positive, however, there is a marked dive towards the end across the suite. I would take any model output showing a strong Azores High in FI with a large pinch of salt at the moment. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Hopefully a potential cold spell beginning around New Year finally creeping into view.

Aye Neiller. Proper stuff now.

Sleety/ Snowy mix of the worst kind. Just to wet.

12z GFS similar to UKMet. Pretty much the same pattern as we are now. Winds primarily from a North Westerly direction, temps below average with mainly snow on the higher hills. As a positive, no sign of the Azores High moving into mainland Europe.

Well, i'm not sure what the Met Office snow forecast is based on, but they are well wide of mark. The precipitation falling is all rain, not even sleet, never mind snow. They are probably automated and not very accurate. At least I know to ignore in the future.

Just not amplification in the flow Neiller to bring in a more Northerly component. Things are just not Northerly enough and too Westerly for low lying snow. Looking at the Black hills to the North of Belfast, snow appears to be lying above about 180mtrs. The Met Office still have Carryduff down for some heavy snow, but will it stick or will it even snow? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcey4hbv7#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1418169600

Very windy and bitterly cold out there. No snow here as yet.

Thanks Matt, your comments confirm my thoughts from yesterday. Certainly no tropospheric positives in the model output at the moment.

The warnings are back up Neiller, sometimes they go missing when their updating. Liking the Carryduff forecast... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcey4hbv773z Heavy snow tonight and wintry right through until Sunday.

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas.... https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81289-white-christmas-2014/page-8#entry3083927 Will it still be there at T+0?!!

Well, it is certainly to early to call it accurately, but based on the current tropospheric signals as John alludes to above, there is nothing to support low level Southern snowfall for Xmas, but of course things can change.

To enforce the reality of no longer term cold spell the NAO forecasts remains positive throughout across all members. Any short potent Notherly/North Westerly will be determined upon how far North and West the Azores ridge can get. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html I would say the chances of white Christmas in the South are pretty remote with Northern and Western areas best in with a shout based on the latest output and potential of brief topplers. Looking further ahead with the likely SSW towards the start of January, the downwelling can take a couple of weeks or more and then a further lag before it can impact our wee islands. So perhaps a lengthy cold spell might occur from mid January onwards.

Ronan, a short wave is simply an area of lower pressure which forms within the long wave pattern. Had a sugar coating of snow last night. Currently Baltic outside.

I've had heavy sleet and snow showers today. Hoping that as the sun goes down any showers might settle.

Well, THE MODELS showed the chance of sleet/snow today for my local and it did indeed snow today, and the last time I checked I don't live up a Scottish mountain.

Winter certainly arrived today. The Mrs said there was some sleet/snow a wee while ago, not much, but the first for what 20 months or so! Long may it continue, Baltic outside..magic. Pomeroy, if you find out, let me know!

Deepest fi of course, but here's hoping the semi permanent PV lobe in Southern Greenland is on its way out. Proper upper heights into Greenland and longer term cold spell would surely follow.. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141205/06/384/npsh500.png In the meantime some decent cold snaps for the North and West. Wind chill currently below freezing in the Provence.

I was enjoying it until the bit in January about a cold England but milder Ireland and Scotland. :-( Would be an unusual synoptic that.

Well, I suppose it depends in what part of these islands you live. With a modelled persistant North Westerly wind for at least 9/10 days with entrenched polar air at times and severe gales, it will not feel like Autumn in this neck of the woods. For me, Winter is best from the North.