mountain shadow

Anyhow... Snow pushing West to East on Tuesday. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140209/18/36/prectypeuktopo.png

Time to close this thread down for Winter 13/14 I think. A decent shout I think for no SSW this Winter in the early forecasts has born out although I don't think anyone forecast such a pronounced Eastern Canadian PV for the whole Winter.

jaffa cakesssing down, howling wind and roaring gale lets hope Winter has a snowy sting in its tale!

Certainly no sign of any snowy cold of any duration in the GFS 12z Op. Yes, the small risk of transient snow on the back end of weather systems but that's it. Unfortunately it's a continuance of what we are having although perhaps slighly less wet and windy. In response to Mucka, i see no evidence of any amplification at H500 level and no sign of any HLB affecting our side of the hemisphere. Any cold and snow is resulting from the PV finally running out of steam, but it remains at home in NE Canada.

Can we keep to the models please...???

2nd of Feb and not one post on the pub run? I guess it was wet and windy.

Tamara, your post regarding the PNA confuses me. It seems to say that neither a positive PNA nor a negative PNA assists in bringing cold air to here. Therefore isn't the PNA phase irrelevant to our weather?

Did it really snow last night? Wet as ever here.

Well Damian. The precipitation was very heavy but no evaporative cooling and I have decent altitude.

Heavy Rain here at 450 feet. No sleetiness at all.

Recretos just written off any chances of the strat helping us now, indeed the strat warming is actually going to aid the PV over NE Canada!! Record wet Winter?

Well, that is a pretty impressive warming and Strat forecasts are meant to be more reliable and that isn't exactly that far into FI. Maybe a small chink of hope to look for in the 12z.

I stand corrected, maybe get one decent snowfall this winter then!! and hopefully a blizzard at that!

Hi Neiller, the fact that any snow will be brief, and laying snow confined to high ground indicates a weather warning will not be necessary, that is, it's not going to cause any disruption. The Wind and Rain warning is sufficient.

Well the UKmet only mentions hill snow for Northern Ireland so rain for low level areas and although I live on a hill, will I be high enough?, unlikey. Pomeroy and Coleraine Mountain will get a blizzard no doubt. Aside from that weather warnings out for rain and wind for the weekend. In terms of any prolonged cold, we continue to look up to the Stratosphere and hope and pray.

Rain rain rain rain rain rain rain..

Oz summary. Wet and windy.

Has thon fruitcake Madden explained why the ice flows haven't turned up yet?, or is he simply going to say that he meant Winter 2014 and not Winter 2013?

It may be the 6z showing a split but it is literally all we have to cling on to.

that's three big guns thrown in the towel for this Winter... Hugo, Ferguson and Murr. I'm holding of until Chiono says so.

0z summary... Wet and windy. The end.

Torrential rain this morning, almost Summer like intensity. Bring on the snow!

In all my years in here, I don't think I have ever seen the UKMO wrong at T+96, so I'm confident that we will see the Easterly. Ithas also handled the evolution rock solidly to where we are now and the ECM seems to be performing less well since its upgrade. It's a pity we no long see the verification stats for our part of the hemisphere as I'm sure the Ukmet model would be well ahead. As for the GFS, it's North Atlantic mobile bias continues and should be ignored completely with this type of blocking scenario. The ECM ensembles will be better guide than the ECM Op.

If that's a bad ECM I would like to see a good one. The summation of the model output today is for a battleground of air masses over the UK, where the snow falls is still up for debate, and at the very least temperatures will be below average.

Hard to believe it's a year since your Dad passed away Pom, nice of him to send a snow shower to cheer you up though. Certainly interesting next week after Sunday's storm. How far West will the cold air get, will the Atlantic be held at bay, still to close to call for me.