mountain shadow

Thanks for the update Corinthian. Just had a look at the surface pressure ensembles for Vienna and Madrid, remember we want the pressure to be low in these locations as an indicator that the cold air might be advected Eastwards. Vienna is currently at 1020mb, the good news is, there is decent support for pressure to drop fairly significantly over the next ten days, which backs up Corinthians snow forecast for the Eastern Alps. Madrid, however, is not as clear cut. Pressure is also around 1020mb at present there but there is more divergence in the ensembles although the majority do drop pressure there and a couple significantly. All in all, positive signs for cold and lets hope the 12z's steady the ship.

In the million and one thing that need to go right to get a cold easterly, I feel the missing element is a North Italian low and an Iberian low which would assist in the bringing the cold West and stop the Scandi Ridge from sinking. Perhaps Corinthian is around to give his guys views on any potential low pressure around North Italy/Southern Austria?

As I've said on numerous occasions the GFS may have the flatter pattern correct but only through default as that is what it is programmed to do. The ECM is miles better and that is backed up by the Professionals as well as the Stats.

Not a sniff of snow, waste of a weather warning.

snow mentioned for Eastern higher parts tomorrow. '-)

So will be interesting to see whether the ECM Op goes with the Met or GFS later, no doubt will be somewhere in between.

Obviously your referencing the GFS and not the UKMet? As mentioned numerous times on here, the GFS will always flatten the pattern and is best ignored unless it agrees with the ECM and/or Meto output. The UKmet looks decent enough to me.

High pressure over the pole should push the jet South overtime, lowering heights in Europe.

You know we're struggling for cold charts when Frosty is having to dig out charts from the GEM! Sadly, we are now looking towards late January for anything prolonged cold wise.

Pretty desperate 12z GFS for cold and/or snow away from high ground. Wet and windy to continue at least until mid month based on this one run. All eyes continue to look up to the Stratosphere for any hope for the second half of winter.

Nick, I'm guessing we dont want that Newfoundland trough phasing with our main low and instead hope it runs up the West of Greenland? http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131230/12/180/h500slp.png

Out to six days so far on the 12z GFS and its wet and windy. Looking from the NH view, it looks promising for a colder spell with heights pushing towards the Pole,Northern Greenland and Scandi with the core PV shifting back to central Canada. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131230/12/144/npsh500.png

Decent height extension towards Svalbard on the UK Met run, almost within reliable too. Whenever their are heights in that local, The Murr will be posting soon, I hope.

Mental out there. Much worse than the pre Xmas storm.

That record low PV temp is surely a good thing? . When it goes, it should quickly according to GP.

If you reckon this is square one..http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131225/12/npsh500.240.pngthen is suggest you learn how to read weather charts.

When is the storm due to hit then..... ;-)

Wind picking up in North Down, stormy night and stormier day to come.

A few snow showers already, hopefully more later. Then comes The Storm....

Latest Met forecast looked decent for snow showers tomorrow. Then comes the storm..

Pretty incredible having a PV section virtually over the UK. Pub run further south, central pressure still around 928mb.. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131220/18/87/h500slp.png With snow too..

927 by my reckoning!!

Crikey.. Getting into the reliable timeframe, and 928mb low just of the NW of Scotland. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131220/12/93/airpressure.png

Slight covering this morning and icy despite the winds. Fingers crossed for some decent snow showers today.

Great post. Had a light covering this morning. Hopefully heavier showers will penetrate this far East in NI later on.