mountain shadow

Nought here, all dying out around South Antrim.

All very blah at the moment, precipitation dying out before it get this far south and east, need a little more Northerly element to the wind. The night is young however.

Should turn more readily to snow now the sun has gone down. Showers are starting to pep up and look a lot more hefty in the Atlantic.

Agreed Steve. After circa 8 years on here and using our own experiences and knowledge of GFS over that timeframe, it is undeniable fact this model is inferior to UKMET and ECM in UK weather modelling, particularly in potential winter blocking scenarios. Anyone saying otherwise has not been around the past ten years.

Smithy, You have already been banned under two previous user names and your swiftly on route for the hat-trick. Hopefully a bit of snow tonight for some, nothing major but hopefully a wee teaser for the winter ahead.

Even Ian Brown is in on it. I refer to my post a wee while back and nothing has changed. Looking good for a more prolonged cold spell.

Summer Sun. When you show them charts, can you also the predicted temp chart as showing the temp difference from normal does not show the full picture. For example, two degrees above normal in Northern Russia at this time of year would still be below freezing. Thanks.

No let downs, just variations on the cold theme. After the initial northerly, probably turning drier but staying cold, bitter nights. After that, reload northerly I reckon.

A great chart to dream about that one! Will it be there in the morning though?

Defintely buying a snow shovel this weekend.

Is it my imagination or did I have a post disapear? Anyhow, pretty stunning early winter weather on offer next week. Initially the North west, North and North East of the Island to benefit but tentative signs that that winds will become more North Easterly giving Eastern counties more of a chance later in the week. Now obviously it is still mid November so a bit of height and darkness will benefit more and I can't see those right on the coast getting much. Some hard frosts on offer as well across the Island, snow or no snow.

Cracking wintry output at the moment. Fingers crossed the 0z ECM op was an outlier and the 12z comes back on board. Frosty, your dancing man is going to need a coat, hat and scarf!

What height are you above sea level again Pom? I think your definitely the highest on here.

Frostyjoe is far more appropriate, and we'll keep calling you it regard less. Slight model wobble this morning in terms of the longevity of the cold spell, but still looking good for some early season snow next week.

Popping out for a snow shovel this weekend for sure Winter is a coming.....

Ukmo atlantic high at least is negatively tilted at T+144, so the cold air would hang around longer than the GFS

Hope not. My washing machine froze up and boiler packed in! Save the best stuff for Xmas.

What the low heights over Europe also do is retain the colder air on its North East flank so that if we do get a second bite and perhaps an Easterly the cold air is hopefully already in place to move West.

What's' happened to Watcher? To busy head banging and playing snooker no doubt. Hopefully the impending Arctic outbreak will wake him from his slumber.

I really hope you get snow on Coleraine's mountain soon Frostyjoe if only to temper your enthusiasm a tiny bit.

Polar Vortex on the move to Scandinavia in November according to the 12z GFS. Believe it when I see it. Incidentally, is this potential cold spell still being driven by the Aleutian High?

Chiono has always said from day 1 that a warm stratosphere merely increases the probability of HLB, no more, no less. In the same way a colder stratosphere decreases the probability of HLB but it ain't impossible. Getting way off topic..

That's not a Greenland High Barry, just an Atlantic ridge which would topple. Still better than nought.

Liking that NASA forecast. Well above 2m temps in the Greenland local, indicative of higher pressure with WAA on the Western Greenland side of an Atlantic ridge with CAA on the UK side. Whilst I see no early signs of a prolonged winter spell, i think we will be looking for Northerlies for our snow this Winter rather than Easterlies.

That remains the only positive Ian. If it continues, probability increases of a northerly as pressure rises behind any low pressure moving East. A mid latitude block west of the UK is not a bad starting point.