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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. I dont doubt that the NW is nearer to the PFJ but it is as far away as you can get on those mean charts as you can get. I wouldnt expect much in the way of the Atlantic from there but they are mean charts and can be deceptive.
  2. Where is the erosion of fine weather from the NW on those mean charts Frostie? The mean PFJ is backed up away to Iceland is it not?
  3. Well the ECM mean thinkness chart is the opposite of what i would have expected to see having just read the METO update. Who knows.
  4. Nice wee thunder storm at the moment after a miserable bank holiday.
  5. Quite awful awful output today for anything settled or warm. One thing is for sure the fact that both the ECM and GEFS ensembles have for some time being pointing towards the Azores ridge becoming a key player yet they have not even come close to fruition. What is the key player here driving the persisting UK trough?
  6. Cloudy and cold again. Must be on for one of the coldest Spring's in NI on record.
  7. It might be dry but still cloudy, cold and depressing.
  8. Looks like an about turn from the GFS overnight Settled next week particularly for the West then cooler again and wetter for all as thé trough moves down from the North.
  9. Undoubtedly the ECM has strenghtened the Azores ridge along the lines of what the GFS has been showing for a few days. Yes the ECM goes unsettled again later in its output, but this is a step change this evening and a big straw to clutch at. Western parts couls be looking at a nice 3-5 day warm settled spell at a minimum. Much needed I can tell you.
  10. Well for once lets hope GFS is right as these islands are in desperate need of some warmth.
  11. Well the GFS looks brilliant for Ireland after Saturday, lets see what the ECM brings.
  12. When will we get some prolonged warmth!! Baltic again today.
  13. It means it's not very pronounced, a low amplitude MJO means a weak MJO so it's impact on large scale synoptics is less.
  14. Desperately poor outlook for a warm settled spell, the odd brief couple of days of drier weather here and there, but the outlook remains unsettled.
  15. GFS 0z horrendous for any dry Spring warmth. Unsettled throughout with the British Isles stuck under à mean trough due to extensive blocking to the North.
  16. Still drinking! Need something to take my mind off the depressing weather. Seems we could be locked into this unsettled spell until at least the end of the month.
  17. I'm not convinced BFTV. The danger is that the heights over Greenland and Scandanavia link up leaving the British Isles sitting in the trough underneath with thundery downpours resulting. Desperately need the heights to be more mid latitude to give us some warmth.
  18. To be fair Gavin an increase in temperature's has to be expected given how suppressed they are at the moment. Whilst the High Pressure build to the East is again being modelled we were in the exact same situation at the start of the month when a block was programmed to be in place now. Will need to wait another couple of days before I think about getting the deckchairs out.
  19. What a miserable day for my 40th birthday!! Thankfully a large bottle of my favourite Whisky Highland Park has been given as a present by my lovely wife so I can drown my sorrows in style!
  20. Yes Gavin, brief interludes of drier conditions is all we can look forward to at the moment based on current output.
  21. A miserable cyclonic looking ECM for the next ten days. Winds mainly from the North West, showery and below average temps. Looks to raise pressure over Scandi. which would improve things for the West.
  22. ECM similar to GFS. Mainly settled but thundery downpours also likely next week.
  23. Gone is the dominant high pressure next week on the GFS 0z op. as à thundery low pushes East mid week.
  24. GFS 6z onboard the High Pressure express kicking in on Saturday. Next week is looking warm and settled Islands wide.
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