mountain shadow
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Everything posted by mountain shadow
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If you went mild and wet every winter, you would right 80 percent of the time. Its an easy call to make.
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Mushy, those anomaly charts show above average heights to the North of the Uk though, do they not?. This would what we should expect if we want a Northerly or Easterly? In terms of the ECM consistency, I have never known the ECM to be wrong after so many runs showing the same thing. Yes, the ECM throws up the odd BOOM chart, but normally a one run thing. As ever, more runs required.
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From what I'm reading the update after each run is irrelevant, they must be, as even the swing from yesterday is much more positive than it should be as we it should be very stable by now? I mentioned away back at the beginning of the thread that it isn't how the OPI begins at the start of each month, but how it ends. The OPI getting less and less negative is a clear sign the vortex is getting itself together. I have to say though, i'm bamboozled by this.
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Problem is for the OPI now, is that with such a negative figure (2nd lowest ever recorded in the series), it would be back to the drawing board for long range forecasting if we get three months of mild mush.
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Met office Contingency planners forecasts
mountain shadow replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hardly great probabilities being forecast though. Proper Winter to kick in post December 20th would suit most people down to the ground. -
Cheers Steve, So a split vortex with portions in S,Greenland, Siberia and around S Alaska with above average heights over the pole. Thanks MS
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Steve, is there a particular area along/North of 60N that you are drawn to?. Other than than anomalies, where are you looking to see the vortex? Thanks
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Thanks BFTV, things beginning to stack up in favour a colder than average North Western Europe for Winter.
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Given that El Nino is now likely, does that present a higher than average chance of a colder than average Winter in NW Europe?
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I'm not surprised, after all long range model forecasts are bound to favour westerly patterns in their programming. No way they would ever predict a three months of -AO and -NAO in October for Winter.
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Well, by my understanding of the OPI, this is nonsense, otherwise we might as well just measure the index on the 12z on the 31st October.
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You can see the work that has gone into it and there are enough brains on here to see that there may be something in it. It could be we have a very negative OPI, in which case we will not have long to wait to see if it verifies to a cold winter.
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More than half way through the month and the decently negative OPI continues. Can't help but feel a wee tinge of excitement.
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I would class a 1030mb high pressure over the pole at the end of October as pretty strong, not weak.
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Its hard to see how the OPI could be anything but negative by month end. The question is how negative.
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Cheers guys.
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BFTP or anyone else for that matter. I was trying to improve my knowledge and looked up the QBO on Wiki, it seems to imply that an Easterly QBO is bad for North West European cold winters? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation Is there something amiss here?
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Ahh, another winter approaches and the early signs are good.. - easterly qbo - High latitude blocking already evident with the Polar Vortex fragmented - Northern hemispheric volcanic eruptions - low solar activity even though we are at peak in cycle Still all to play for, but I'm feeling confident we will get a couple of stonking snowy spells this Winter.
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Getting towards month end on the GFS and there is precious little sign of a renewed Polar Vortex. Keep this up and a record low OPI could be possible.. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20141010/06/384/npsh500.png PV very fragmented.
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Erm, well the OPI measurement stops on October 31st?, so unless we have an NPI, i dont think it matters.
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Is that a predicition for the Winter CET based on the latest OPI!! :-0
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This is similar to my thoughts Saltire, that surely how the OPI is trending towards month end that may be more important than how it begins. Only time and further research will answer that I suppose.
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Snow on snow over the Christmas holiday would do me just fine.
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I'll be more than satisfied as long as Mr Murr's sausage makes at least one appearance this Winter.
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Of course your allowed a joke, just don't say it aloud.
