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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    Possible White Christmas on the 12z _GFS!!!
  2. mountain shadow
    Slightly disagree with Gibby's summary of no lowland snow in the model output. The models do point to a chance in the North and West as nearer the Arctic air although it is precarious as mentioned. Still at least it gives something to look for.
  3. mountain shadow
    The possible synoptic pattern for Scandi trough and Greenland heights has been in the model output for a good while, the delaying factor was the persistant russian high pressure. If we were facing a northerly toppler we would normally expect it to shunt eastwards as we approached t+0. Perhaps with the possible west based -NAO we will see it move more neutral and deliver a bullseye. Answers in the morning?
  4. mountain shadow
    Over 1600 feet. Wont be worrying too many then.
  5. mountain shadow
    I agree Matty but only If you live over 750 feet or so in the North east of Scotland.
  6. mountain shadow
    Not sure anything has changed from yesterday. Block holding on stopping the pattern moving forward yet delivering little. We continue to wait for stratospheric influences to assist although this might be mid to late January if at all
  7. mountain shadow
    Agree with the comments about a zonal January however this doesnt mean no snow. If a portion of the PV drops into Scandinavia we will have a heck of a lot of cold air within touching distance which any height rises towards Greenland will assist with. Grasping for any straws i know.
  8. mountain shadow
    Its back to looking longer term for snow and the portion of the PV dropping into Scandinavia looks mighty good. Maybe it will come off this time.?
  9. mountain shadow
    Looks like it is all eyes to the stratosphere to deliver in mid to late January.
  10. mountain shadow
    No Matty, i fear that were in for a Christmas blowtorch all be it temporary. The North east may see something but for the rest of us miserable. The block to the north east has done for December.
  11. mountain shadow
    Its time we wish the block to head east to allow pressure to fall over Scandinavia and increase the northerly potential. Maybe the pub run will give a bit of Christmas cheer.
  12. mountain shadow
    The Christmas northerly has been showing for three days now. Looking good.
  13. mountain shadow
    Possible Christmas northerly is the form horse now.
  14. mountain shadow
    Certainly not writing of a Christmas northerly. Models starting to pick up on the strat warming so will be even more chaotic.
  15. mountain shadow
    Subtle signs continue of a brief northerly around Christmas Day again. One to watch.
  16. mountain shadow
    Im not great at reading these charts but are there subtle signs the vortex will be displaced to Scandinavia? Not a bad place to be.
  17. mountain shadow
    Well, we can forget about an easterly this year and welcome in the Euro high. The only crumb of comfort is that the pattern is mobile and both ECM and GFS hint at a northerly toppler for Christmas Day.
  18. mountain shadow
    Pretty sure there has been nothing across Ireland.
  19. mountain shadow
    Cant help feel this is all very fragile given the lack of any proper northern blocking. Maybe with the PV the other side of the hemisphere is the key driver.
  20. mountain shadow
    Here we go again..... If the 00 hours continue this in the morning we could see another change in the EC32 and much head scratching at The Met Office.
  21. mountain shadow
    Something positive to discuss at the very least.
  22. mountain shadow
    Are we into negative figures out of ten yet Nick?
  23. mountain shadow
    Buriedundersnow. We have Seen a ridge to Greenland but it was very weak with the jet running underneath. Looking for this is pointless. We need to wait for upstream patterns to change perhaps courtesy of a SSW with any impact on these islands in 4 to 6 weeks or so
  24. mountain shadow
    A sobering summary from Gibby. All hopes then clinging to a SSW at the beginning of January. If it occurs then the lag time will take us to mid/late January. In the meantime, nothing expected anytime soon.
  25. mountain shadow
    Amazed at the positivity in here, where there is none. Seems hopes are being hung on the amplification of a an Atlantic trough, but what is going to drive that amplification? The MJO.....nope A local wave breaking Event.....nope Hate being negative but there is no model output or teleconnections pointing to proper Greenland heights.
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