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Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    This was exactly my observation. ECM bigged up that it will be right despite the fact it keeps delaying the return of the Atlantic. Perhaps an indication that Its upstream modeling is not to be trusted
  2. mountain shadow
    I would say that further north and east you are the better but still marginal as ever. Need more information on upper air temps, wet bulbs etc...
  3. mountain shadow
    All snow now but not settling.
  4. mountain shadow
    First few flakes of snow have arrived, very sleety mix. Poor output this morning it has to be said for the island.
  5. mountain shadow
    Told you Pom always got snow.!! Just rain at the moment in Carryduff.
  6. mountain shadow
    Not quite Sundog. ECM ops run as poor as you can get, however pretty much everything else prolongs the cold. Another 12 hour wait for consensus.
  7. mountain shadow
    The 18z GFS ensembles certainly show that it is cold enough for snow over the weekend and into early next week but there is just not enough precipitation.
  8. mountain shadow
    The first thing you need to look for when looking for snow is precipitation and that is the big missing thing aside from the front moving down on Monday which will see a short lived band of rain/sleet/snow at higher levels.
  9. mountain shadow
    Unfortunately based on current output there is 0% chance of any disruptive snowfall to low levels across ireland over the next 5 days. Maybe a few cm's of snow for higher ground but nothing much. Ah well, maybe the SSW will provide more opportunites later on in the month.
  10. mountain shadow
    The ECM kinda follows what GP was suggesting. Cold and snow followed by less cold followed by reload mega style from the North East.
  11. mountain shadow
    It wolle be cold enough for snow next week but will there be precipitation. As for Sunday into Monday i'm going watch the lamposts and see what happens.
  12. mountain shadow
    Pomeroy always gets snow up on Waltons Mountain! Really is hard to call for Sunday and Monday. Some altitude will help for sure.
  13. mountain shadow
    Well the ECM at the close does Show a very mild set up and just shows why we should not expect a very prolonged cold spell. As deep FI shows that despite a very fragmented PV, a section of it ends up over Greenland and drives a zonal Jet.
  14. mountain shadow
    Rock solid ECM. Even if we take a blend of output a minimun 5 day cold spell is likely.
  15. mountain shadow
    What we are seeing now is the initial impact of the SSW. The full effect will be towards month end and hopefully better.
  16. mountain shadow
    Granted things look better across the water as they are nearer the colder air, however there will be wintry/snow showers around and if the cold air stays around we could have some heavy snow as the atlantic moves against the block. The lack of proper high latitude blocking is a worry however with the SSW reducing the power of the Jet stream we could just about get away with it.
  17. mountain shadow
    Your right Watsy they have gone, wonder where? Although I appear to have something called a warning point?
  18. mountain shadow
    Your looking at the wrong models then Sandra. Both tonights GFS and the ECM would bring plenty of snow it Ireland
  19. mountain shadow
    Huge upgrade on the 18z Ops run, snow pretty much everywhere across the islands. Sure, some would miss out and some get loads, but at least the snow train is coming...
  20. mountain shadow
    Bitterly cold night followed by a channel Low...
  21. mountain shadow
    Well the GFS and UKMET are poor this side of the Irish Sea for snow. The ECM on the other hand is a peach. The Irish Met have a tough call on which to follow.
  22. mountain shadow
    The increasing concern particularly in the West is the lack of proper blocking allowing the Atlantic to encroach more. Really hope the models are underplaying the SSW influence and you would logically expect the output to improve the further we get from the SSW start date. Comment has to be given on the Performance of the GFS ditched the big easterly option first and picked up the short wave influence as well
  23. mountain shadow
    What is clear is that any upper level heights at higher latitudes is not going to hallen. No sign yet of a -nao
  24. mountain shadow
    Remember the GFS Ops also disagrees with around 1/2 of its ens. at day 4, so does,t even agree with itself. The updated NAE is a big bonus and with latest data from the 12 o clock input surely the GFS Ops will come on board
  25. mountain shadow
    So, millions if not billions spent on super Computers, numerous forecasters with degrees in meteorolgy and not one of them can say what the weather be like in four/five days time? Is the Met Office worth the money we pay in taxes?
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