The EC32 backs up my thoughts yesterday of no cold and snow until at least mid January. Thats half the Winter.
Precious little in the output to offer encouragement. At least moderating will be easier as their will be no one posting.
It is zonal, although of a colder variety. The weather will be Atlantic driven, that to me is zonal.
Chiono mentioned a possible SSW in around ten days, it can then take a further 21 days to impact us, if at all.
That takes us to mid January.
Well the Met Office have written off cold and snow until the 8th of January. What a turn around.
The models are wet and windy for the foreseeable with perhaps slight height rises towards Greenland although Not currently strong enough to bring Arctic air.
The waiting continues and could well take us into mid January before our next shot.
The Pro,s are speechless because they forecast the longwave pattern. They have no way of forecasting the shortwaves so have to sit dumbfounded like the rest of us.
The Pro,s are speechless because they forecast the longwave pattern. They have no way of forecasting the shortwaves so have to sit dumbfounded like the rest of us.
So we hope that the models are wrong tomorrow and the anomaly Charts are right.
Will we learn our lessons this time that model watching is pointless past 72 hours/
Kind of shows as well that despite there super computers and super boffins The Met Office have about as much a clue as the rest of us.
They chop and change as much as the models.
So in summary. Model watching is pointless. The anomaly forecasts are pointless. The strat forecasts are
Pointless as none of them can pick up on small features which can scupper the whole pattern.?
Great charts this morning.
Cold and snow for more eastern areas initially followed by the potential for more widespread significant snow as the Atlantic tries to push in.
Some areas will stay cold throughout.
Agreed , too early to say where the snow will be. All dependent on wind direction and strength.
Best chance for widespread snow will be as the Atlantic pushes in against the block in around ten to fifteen days. Will make the Run up to Christmas interesting.
If the ECM tonight is at leadt half way between the UKMET and the GFS then i think we will be able to say that the easterly is locked in and the ensembles will start to lose the milder options.
Cold this morning, already back in the colder uppers.
Still hoping for a little something tomorrow night with perhaps a second bite at the weekend.
We could be in the freezer after next weekend.
The ridge to Greenland would merge with the Scandi high giving an easterly.
In time the PV is expected to shift over to Siberia away from Canada allowing the Scandi high to retrogress to Greenland for a northerly. Shades of 2010.