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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    So at only 4 days we have zero concensus between the top three models. You couldnt make it up. Shannon Entropy indeed.
  2. mountain shadow
    So which is it? Any chance of a chart rather than one liners?
  3. mountain shadow
    Well the GEFS are split down the middle. So no concensus in the GFS at a short time scale.
  4. mountain shadow
    So, we can add thr Pro's against the GFS ops as well.
  5. mountain shadow
    Well we will know what the Met think on there T+120 fax soon enough.
  6. mountain shadow
    ITSY. The models dont care whether they are right or wrong. Its GFS Ops v ECM, ECM ens, UKMET. Cannot be right, surely?
  7. mountain shadow
    Clearly a chance for snow across the island next week. As usual, northern and eastern areas would do best however the south and west could see significant snow as the Atlantic moves against the cold block. Hopefully tonights GFS joins the Party.
  8. mountain shadow
    A good sign surely that the GFS has moved somewhat and prolongs the cold. On the poorer side the Iceland based high appears fragile with more of a mid Atlantic based high which would allow energy over the Top and sink or topple the ridge. A step backwards i feel so far and await the ECM with fingers crossed.
  9. mountain shadow
    Ian Ferguson introduced the phrase a couple of days ago and basically means the models dont have a clue and any solution is possible.
  10. mountain shadow
    Surely the vortex modelled in the 6z is completely at odds with what we should expect given the ongoing SSW?
  11. mountain shadow
    Lol at the GFS ops. After being faultless it suddenly throws out a stinker but it unlikely to be right now. ECM is stonking.
  12. mountain shadow
    We might experience a contintental climate for a week or two. Could be very exciting!!
  13. mountain shadow
    Incredible output, especially good for England which could see major travel disruption if these charts start to varify.
  14. mountain shadow
    If tonights models come off we will all see snow. The only question is how much.
  15. mountain shadow
    Spot on. The after 10 always has the latest updates from the met.
  16. mountain shadow
    Get your sledge out Ian!!
  17. mountain shadow
    All wait with baited breath for the 12z ECM. Crank up the servers for 6pm!!
  18. mountain shadow
    Ian enjoys the snow as much as the rest of us i believe. He is however an advocate of what can go wrong will go wrong which is why he is right more often than wrong
  19. mountain shadow
    I do feel for Ian Brown, he gets lambasted for saying the ECM op is more likely to be correct, yet when Ian Ferguson says the METO are saying the same he is lauded and everyone agrees with him.
  20. mountain shadow
    Regardless of what any output is showing until i see it on an ECM operational run im not believing. The last two operational runs from the best model is not supportive of big Greenland heights. Lets not get ahead of ourselves......yet.
  21. mountain shadow
    Why are Ian Brown and others being critised for saying the cold snap this weekend will be brief and not sustained?. Seems to me that this agrees with the METO and last two ECM ops. No prolonged snow and cold likely until towards the end of the month more likely given expected propogation timescales from the SSW
  22. mountain shadow
    Can those anomaly charts really be so wrong though? Drawn by Professionals i believe.
  23. mountain shadow
    That ECM is a big blow. Its the best model and two op runs in a row have flattened the pattern. Add on what MOGREPS is showing and i think we could be on a failed snowy spell again. That doesnt of course mean that we dont see better impact from the SSW in February .
  24. mountain shadow
    Caution people, caution.. :-)
  25. mountain shadow
    Basically, they dont have a clue and neither does anyone Else.
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