Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

mountain shadow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    11,186

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    Im liking the anomaly charts, it would good to see them better manifested in the models!!
  2. mountain shadow
    But surely any snow within 6 days was unlikely anyway given the SSW was only today. We really shouldnt be looking for any widespread snow for another 2/3 weeks given propogation time.
  3. mountain shadow
    You will note that as we approach the reliable time frame the cold and snow is pushed back. Not a good sign. When i said that yesterdays ECM was too fast i expected the change to a slower evolution today and i fully expect the 12z ECM to follow the GFS tonight. I do think thr cold and snow will come just not as quick as some would like.
  4. mountain shadow
    Im with Ian on this one. The ECM seems to quick for me. A couple of days ago the MJO was going no where in area 4/5 and suddenly has jumped forward to favourable phase 7/8. Just seems to fast.
  5. mountain shadow
    Cheers S4. This is what kicks it all off so comforting that its not delayed.
  6. mountain shadow
    Evening all. Is the SSW still modelled to kick off officially on Sunday?
  7. mountain shadow
    99% of us would also agree as missing out is the norm for the British Isles. What we have is something to offer us hope. Nothing more, nothing less.
  8. mountain shadow
    I'm not unduly worried about the MET update today. Things are still very much up in the air (pun intended) and it's only Thursday they will have the EC32 update overnight.
  9. mountain shadow
    A pretty stunning day 10 chart, very rare. Trying to kurb my excitement now after the December debacle.
  10. mountain shadow
    I think all hopes are now pinned on the SSW for the 6th. Of course it can take 2/3 weeks for any impact to come through which maybe why the models are currently poor. On the other hand if the propogation is quick we may see a quick change in the output.
  11. mountain shadow
    Dodo. No it wasnt. It was due to a local wave breaking warming event from the bottom up.
  12. mountain shadow
    And to further complicate things we may well be looking at a multiple warming due to different waves. Not simple this strat warming by any means.
  13. mountain shadow
    Another improvement in the GEFS today. The FI 0z had 2 cold runs, the 6z had 3/4 and tonights 12z had 5/6. Baby steps, but maybe the pub run will give a cold Ops.
  14. mountain shadow
    The 0z GEFS had two cold runs in FI, the 6z has 3/4. A good sign and hopefully an Op run picks one up soon.
  15. mountain shadow
    I notice a couple of very cold GFS ensembles at the very end of FI. With Steve's possible target date for cold arriving around the 14th it will interesting to see if the colder members start to increase as we get nearer this date.
  16. mountain shadow
    Well, with strat warming being the buzz term this Winter it couldnt pick a better time to show its trueworth given the very poor cold prospects. It will certainly make for a learning experience watching the propogation over the next month.
  17. mountain shadow
    As awful an output for cold as ever. Whilst there are signs of a split vortex, it looks like a lobe will be setting up near Greenland which is never good. Not writing off January but unless we see changes soon we might well be.
  18. mountain shadow
    Steve, i think most are aware that a stratosphere warming event increases the chance of cold for the Uk but does not guarantee it. That increased probability gives us something to work off at the very least.
  19. mountain shadow
    Very similar to where we are now, unfortunately pattern matching is up there with astrology.
  20. mountain shadow
    The hunt for cold continues. Nothing on the 0z offer anything. Flat and zonal.
  21. mountain shadow
    It would be difficult for the azores high to influence with a negative AO. A negative AO would push the jet stream further south which in turn would keep Azores high further south. Sobering to note how negative the AO has been yet delivered nothing.
  22. mountain shadow
    The AO is going very negative, only a matter of time before we can tap in surely. Meanwhile it will be colder in the North and West with chances of snowfall. The biggest concern has to be the rainfall, its just going to keep coming.
  23. mountain shadow
    Gibby, the GEFS clearly Show good potential for snow in the North and West just not cold rain.
  24. mountain shadow
    Well tonights ECM was better for cold than the 0z so a small step in the right direction. The GFS normally handles northerlies better, we will know soon enough.
  25. mountain shadow
    Not a bad GFS run. Big -AO with copious cold air spilling into the Atlantic. The Azores high is not a player. Very seasonal.
×
×
  • Create New...