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mountain shadow

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Everything posted by mountain shadow

  1. mountain shadow
    The main thing for settling snow is dew point temps of 0 degrees or less.
  2. mountain shadow
    Have a look at the first page on the main model thread. There is an accumulation chart on it. Big Lad. Dont worry about the milder day tomorrow, it will cool down quick enough
  3. mountain shadow
    A few charts in the main model and Scotland regional thread showing snow for eastern down in Friday/Saturday.
  4. mountain shadow
    The weather warning just doesn't make sense. It's says that the rain may turn to snow for a time over hills indicating that it will then turn back to rain. That's just wrong. Ulster will be getting colder and colder throughout Friday as we bring in the colder dew points which means the rain will turn to snow and stay that way if the precipitation hasn't moved on.
  5. mountain shadow
    The weather warning says rain but the computer says snow. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/carryduff#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358467200
  6. mountain shadow
    That weather warning is already wrong based on the 12z UKMET and 12z GFS and they have clearly ignored the 12z NAE, would love to be able to speak to someone at The Met Office, I just don't think they spend the time looking at the Northern Irish weather to care. Much improved runs this afternoon, Ireland gets a continental climate at day5 http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130116/12/120/0degisotherm.png
  7. mountain shadow
    There both still excellent, the GFS just less good but still cold. It's great when we can argue about different sizes of cold rather than mild/cold.
  8. mountain shadow
    Much better run from GFS, the next low does disrupt and would turn more readily to snow, the UKMO is even better. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130116/12/114/prectypeuktopo.png
  9. mountain shadow
    Disagree, the 12z is slower at bringing in the precipitation and tilted better to draw in the colder dew points. You can see this clearly on the NI charts where the 6Z had rain where as the 12z now has the snow backing west into eastern Ulster.
  10. mountain shadow
    UKMO further west as well. Now with the GFS pushing this system in next, will it slide underneath?, this time the cold is embedded across Ireland.. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130116/12/84/h500slp.png
  11. mountain shadow
    Much better guys and gals. Snow chances increasing through the weekend!! http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130116/12/75/prectypeuktopo.png
  12. mountain shadow
    Yes Neiller, both 12z NAE and 12z GFS give eastern Ulster snow, but its so close..
  13. mountain shadow
    Definetly much better, it has shifted west but not quite enough yet.
  14. mountain shadow
    Early days in the 12z, It looks a little slower but more importantly tilting more favourably.
  15. mountain shadow
    Noticed Neiller, eastern Ulster in the firing zone again... Up, Down, Up, Down...
  16. mountain shadow
    Met Office Web forecast has Carryduff down with Heavy Snow through Friday afternoon and night.
  17. mountain shadow
    It's the dew points which are the problem. We dont get the colder dew points cutting beneath the rain to turn it to snow. One possible plus might be evaporative cooling if the rain is heavy enough. Its something the models would find hard to predict. We really need it backing West though.
  18. mountain shadow
    Terrible, terrible runs this morning for Northern Ireland. Models have firmed up on pushing the front through to quickly before the colder continental air has time to get across the irish sea. Looking for a 100 mile correction back west on the 12z.
  19. mountain shadow
    It shows potential but thats about it. Will wait for the 12z before getting the Prozac My only hope is that the models are underestimating the block and backs things West a 100 miles.
  20. mountain shadow
    As predicted Northern Ireland removed from Weather Warnings by The Met Office. Virtually the whole of England, Scotland and Wales to get our snow. :-(
  21. mountain shadow
    The only reason im on here is for snow. And their is nothing worse than having snow forecast only for it to be given to someone else.
  22. mountain shadow
    Massive turn around though Pomeroy in six hours. On current output it is a rain only event for Ireland. Unless we see a westward correction on the 12s, its all over. Indeed i would say low lying areas have very little chance of snow at all I fully expect NI to be removed from weather warnings this afternoon. Well Pi**ed off
  23. mountain shadow
    The automated and Kirkwood forecast appear to come from the 6z NAE which pushes the Atlantic in quickly. This is opposite to the overnight GFS, ECM and UKMET run which bring a snow event to the North. We will get an idea of The Met Office thoughts later as the Weather Warnings are updated. Lets see what the GFS 6z brings
  24. mountain shadow
    Very poor NAE for Ireland, North and South. The front doesnt appear to be pivoting as much meaning the Atlantic wins out quickly. Still different from the overnight ECM, UKMET and GFS which brings snow to NI at least. Still time for change.
  25. mountain shadow
    Just caught Carol Kirkwoods forecast on the Beeb showing rain only for NI with all the snow pushing across the Irish sea which is opposite to what the GFS shows. So even with only 48 hours until the event were still none the wiser. But that Kirkwood forecast has certainly dampened my spirits.
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