snowspotter

I did post a while back for someone to show the number of cold winters following a warm September and there was radio silence . So unless someone can prove otherwise maybe it’s a bit harsh just to say total BS to this persons comment .Now if you show me a number of cold winters following a warm September then fair play I will accept it . But not seen anything yet ! I haven’t the time to go back on 100 years data myself

I’d like to check but I probably won’t be about in 30 years . Maybe the speed record will be remembered

Agreed . Some good points here . I think we can safely put a nail on the coffin of winter 2021/2022 . The model discussion thread for winter seems to have died a complete death

I’ve already closed having a pointless argument buddy . The curious case of Benjamin button ( is it a major storm ) is done have a great evening on here debating it

Blimey I’ve created some angst here lol. Hyperbole is hyperbole it’s not measured in deaths and I told you so comments . I’m just going by the damage in comparison with what people were going on about . You won’t be talking about this storm in 30 years will ya ??? End of

Absolutely. But it wasn’t the storm it was built up to be on here was it? That’s my point

Oh no I love a good weather forum been on here since 2003 . Just saying it’s been hyperboled too much . Let’s be frank some people actually believe stuff on here and panic at every opportunity. I’m just posting reality

Don’t think I did either but there’s 144 pages of drama on here

My take on this is ….a storm yes but not really that intense (thank goodness) a few trees down here . Fence panels down ( like they always are - should invest in concrete posts !) . Is it worth all the hyperbole ??? No ….. reading on here in the build up you’d think a hurricane was coming . A flaw of the forums acting like the daily express . Basically whipping things up . Compared to 1987 (and 1990 January) a walk in the park . Incidentally just done one . 1987 I couldn’t get out of my village in Surrey , went for a cycle and got caught up in telephone cables . This doesn’t even come close !

I don’t think there is going to be a sting jet on this system . Met guy on radio 5 just said so

15 million trees came down in uk in 1987 as they were still in leaf . Not saying there will not be damage but a comparison is not really realistic

Blimey there is a lot of hyberbole on here about this storm . There is absolutely zero chance of anything even remotely like the 1987 storm down here . I think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves like when blizzards are predicted and paralysing snow and we end up with1cm .

I haven’t gone through the entire data set ! But believe some have and can anyone show me one winter where a warm September is followed by a cold winter ? I could be wrong but I think , for example , Gavs weather vids (and believe me he leaves no stone unturned !) picked up on the comparisons of warm September = mild winter . So I think it’s more than a statistical quirk .

How’s the hunt for cold thread going ? I think naming it that has put a complete jinx on things . We’ve had one morning on 3/12 with a dusting of snow . That’s it ! Nothing at all since . I think this is safely going down as a disaster of a winter . And now to cap it all when the PV should be relaxing it’s gone all autumnal . I think climate change has well and truly screwed us . Looks like the Feb CET is similar to an average April . Do we actually have winter anymore ?

Just checked my weather station stats. Since the ridiculous warm start at end of December early January we have had a some cracking frosty starts and some cool day with sunshine after the December gloom. I am quite enjoying it to be honest to put things into perspective here are the number of days I've recorded with minimums below 0c ( have missed out 2021 ,2016, 2021 as lost some data) So far this month 11 days which compares really well already since 2010 with totals as follows :- 2010 -19 2011 - 7 2012 - 11 2013 - 15 2014 - 4 2015 - 11 2017 - 16 2018 - 2 2019 - 15 2020 - 4 I'm confident we might end up with a record beating 2010 so best January for frosts since at least 2010!!

Any reason the 18Z is not updating on Netweather when it is on Meteociel? . Whats the point in paying for 'extra' if it doesn't update.

Shall I come back in 10 days then for the 'hunt for (yeti) cold'

Ok . I’ll look at it this way . I thought it was an average anyway bearing in mind it’s predicting averages for the whole month of say February.

I’d like to be convinced if there is anything to be taken from it when it fluctuates so much . Maybe I’m not an expert

Yeah it’s supposed to ! But it changes weekly from one extreme to the other so like the poster above intimates it’s a load of rubbish

Sadly I am beginning to think this winter , that seemed to promise so much may be heading down the crap route . Every January we seem to end up here hoping for a late January feb cold spell. I watched Gavs winter forecast again yesterday and he did say mid January to mid February the best chance for cold BUT also said a chance this could be overidden . If we don’t see anything in the charts long term in next 10 days I think it’s time to call it a bust as that would take us to mid to late January

Haven't we seen something like this 282hrs chart somewhere before!

Blimey never thought I'd see the day when New Years Eve on the GFS showed a maximum temperature in London of 15c . Let that sink in bit . 15c in the day in the heart of winter. I'm really quite concerned what is happening with our climate. Thats just ridiculous. And to think the same model was showing an ice day 36 hours back. I think that sums things up.

Honestly I haven't seen charts like these before they just look totally different to anything I've seen in last 15 years absolutely bizarre pressure systems

Are you prepared to put money on this forecast ! I’m not too confident on the altlantic barrelling in for a mild new year GFS seems to suggest a snowstorm and easterlies Unless I am going completely mad