snowspotter

My altitude is under 300 feet . There was some transient snow on the top of the downs . All we’re getting is cold rain . Quite frankly I’d rather have warm rain

Haha yeah right . ‘A very wintry month’ I’d say a very tedious month . I’m about 20 miles from Heathrow and I’ve seen a few struggling frosts and no snow at all. We’re now in mid January. It’s hardly 1991/1987 or 1979 is it ?

let’s dust down the sledges

To be honest I’ve given looking at this site a miss for three or four days . Just checking my phone for updates on the basic 10 days it generates to get an idea when it looks remotely interesting. It’s actually quite pleasant ignoring all the rubbish posted on the mod thread . I am still working on the basis that quite frankly the south east is set for a load of crud for the next 10 days . Wake me up if things change . I’m sticking my neck out here that winter is not going to occur down here

Crikey I’m looking outside in Reigate can’t see the hill . Wonder how much up there . Suspect it will be gone by lunchtime ?

I can see a basic chart for sea temperature on this site under data . Can’t see an anomaly chart though . Is there one we can see that backs up the ‘warmer than normal’ sea comments ?

Personally I’m not worried at all about lack of snow yet. The pattern is set cold so it’s only a matter of time . 1947 didn’t even get going until third week of January . So we’re way ahead here . 1962 only got snowy around Boxing Day . We almost had an ice day here so going well in my opinion

My view for what it’s worth is that the cold is only just starting and starting to build . It’s looking quite exciting as we head into the coldest month for the first time since about 1987 !

Must confess surprised how cold it is today -1c on the car at 12noon . Here is my car dashboard photo

Right seems to be a line of precipitation building in a line on the South Downs . Wonder if there is snow in it

The overall picture does not look good to me . Failed with the snow today and the immediate future looking decidedly average for us in the South East . Uppers far too mild for am easterly unless you enjoy cold rain. Maybe mid January we might get some colder air . Until then its no snow I feel.

My phone app looks alright . These things change quicker than a Day 10 chart

I’ve still not got over the last chart from the same source that predicted 25cm of snow in Surrey early December . To be honest it’s a load of rubbish

Blimey the shower that is currently over Reigate just had some snowflakes in the lamp post light . Technically that’s about an hour short of a white Xmas in my book !!

Hmmm well the latest BBC news 10 day weather outlook just said a bit chilly but nothing too cold. More a bit chilly . Hardly the stuff of legends compared to what is being discussed in the mod thread. At least we are promised a frost tonight hoorah

Right so .......10 day charts showing cold not materialising . Xmas about 5-7c no snow . 15 pages of desperate people on the model thread throwing toys and getting excited /depressed in a 24 hour period and the netweather CET running at +1.02c in line with the Met Office forecast . Did I miss anything or are we on the cusp of a bitter winter ?

With all due respect the vortex was over there in December 1962 around this time so I wouldn’t get too upset . (Responding to Howie)

It’s on the Met Office link as a huge area of positive temperature anomalies for the entire winter period shown in red especially Northern Europe and Siberia

Absolutely nailed there . If you compare the GFS at 8 days there is literally no similarity . Ridiculous really . Not a lot of point commenting after that really is there

I’ll keep this quick . Mountains of analysis on the mod thread. I agree the pattern looks different this year but my gut feeling is that we are heading back to a wet period of mild to average temperatures. I just can’t see a cold spell ever getting close . I think global warming is making it more and more difficult to get the correct set up . I reckon I could log off for a week and come back and we’d still be 10-14 days away from potential . Reality will likely be December gone and mild and wet overall . Much as the met office predicted .

It’s started here already Steve down to 6.4c since last post

Well it’s dropping here slightly from 7.2c to 7.0c

Without posting loads of charts I have to say the eastward progression of the high pressure placement , shunting the cold air for weekend east of us is quite frankly entirely predictable. Just obvious really . After many a year watching the models they are still totally useless in these situations . You have to seriously question the credibility of the GFS however many upgrades it has had . When was the last time closer to the time the high pressure moved more favourably towards Greenland ?

I had reasonable hopes for this winter but this is probably it ! Not exactly a 1963 experience is it ? Good luck all for next 24hrs . You never know we might see some falling at least

Quick question (not sure right thread) Whats the mildest winter 3 months CET for DJF? Using the Netweather CET average should be 5.1c + 4.2c +4.2c = 13.5c /3 = 4.5c. So far we are at 6.37c + 6.89c +6.97c = 20.23c / 3 = 6.74c ! Basically an Autumn! I feel we may have 'tipped' into a new era of climate change here I really hope we haven't. Just interested how this winter sits in the overall numbers. I can also see its been very wet!