snowspotter

Bit of a flop . Your having a laugh ! Spent night down near Brighton kept awake all night by strong winds and lashing rain . Just driven up via Gatwick airport fields absolutely flooded cars in a field submerged and main roads flooded in parts and we’ve not even had all the rain yet !

I didn’t bother looking at charts for 10 days after Steve Murr said winter over . Had a glance a day or so ago and I see everyone was on the northerly bandwagon . Now it disappeared and we are back to the new norm . According to the net weather CET we are about 4c above average 4c for gods sake . Personally I have not seen a single day below a max of 7c this month and no sign yet of a frost . It’s more like October

Can I ask a fairly straight forward question?. We are often told here by certain posters not to compare each GFS run but compare each like for like run. .i.e the 6z with yesterdays 6z etc. Each model run uses I am understanding different parameters? As such they will vary enormously in the mid to long run especially . So.........my question is .......is it possible to compare say the last run with the days before to get a balanced view of subtle changes? And if so where can you show this? I can't seem to see you can on netweather or any of the other sites. I am happy to be pointed in the direction of a link?. Franky the wild mood swings in here are systematic of the model run variability so It think this would be a good thing to compare and might even bring some sanity yo this site Anyway when's the easterly coming?

I have to question the netweather CET if I am honest . Try telling Joe Public that August is a scorcher 2.42c above an average August . Bearing in mind in simplistic terms taking the average maximum and minimum predicted for the next 10 days we would be looking at about 16c max which bearing in mind I am in the south east surely means the CET must come right down . I don’t buy this low diurnal range of temperature . I can’t even think we have had a warm first 10 days of August : something must surely be wrong

Right I'm sticking these charts in here . Courtesy of Meteociel. I'm not smart enough to calculate the area covered by -28hpa but to my eye there looks less with recent decades. I've picked todays date from last 7 decades on todays date . Is this just a trick of the eye? to me there looks a lot less in recent decades of really cold air in Arctic regions hence what I was banging on about

I'm gonna post some charts in the general winter discussion thread , just what I think

No not at all . In fact I include the USA. One polar vortex outbreak in USA does not equal a cold winter. You may as well pick out Siberia . Question overall has the USA and Canada had a colder than average Winter? I'm looking at overall northern hemisphere cold distribution and there is less of it to go round

Well I suggest this thread is retired. The climate has changed to such an extent that I would go so far as to say the models , particularly long range are now not really of much use . I was looking at historical northern hemisphere winter charts the other day and I am of the opinion that the cold air has diminished over arctic areas . Consequently (my gut feeling) there is simply less colder air to make it to our latitude . If for example temperatures in the Arctic are say 3c warmer than it doesn’t take much science to realise that whatever airmass arrives will be up to that warmer. Result clearly obvious in recent summers particularly. The signals were pointing to a cold winter and northern blocking yet there has been none. At best that means the models are seriously flawed at worst the planet is in serious trouble and they are not picking up on it . With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen. I seriously think this winter has had it now . The next two weeks look like nothing.I suggest people give up on it . I for one a massive snow lover have realised this and I am now looking forward to spring . How about a hunt for spring thread ? Having posted this the 6z will probably bring the beast in at 144hrs !

I find it very annoying that Basingstoke less than 50 miles away gets pounded by snow and here in Reigate sod all .

I am not sure what mind bending drugs people are on at present but I am looking at the charts and thinking that all I can see is a continuation of pretty much nothing. No HLB , nothing at all YET from the SSW and we are basically at the end of January . No snow at all for southern areas. I will personally eat my hat and buy a pint for members on here if the channel low delivers for the SE. I'd put it at about a 1:50 chance so I have already written it off. In the meantime we are heading into February. I think a dose or realism is needed in here .

Just looked at archive don't remember it being particularly impressive. I was thinking for a real proper one of a week or so you probably need to go back 25 years plus

Quick question , when was the last year we had a blocking anticyclone to our north east in January that lasted a reasonable length of time? I can't remember one!

First post of the winter from me. Early morning cuppa looking outside back door and a few snowflakes blowing past

Apparently an old lady from East Kent phoned the met office and bbc to say there’s snow coming . Don’t worry it isn’t rest assured the experts say it’s gonna be dry all afternoon

Blizzards imminent them . Keep eyes peeled on that precipitation over channel. Anyway enjoy what you have outside today.

I don't get this cancel flights in advance bit . surely they plan with de-icer . Flights would never leave Scandinavia and most of central europe all winter! .Just a case of de-icing surely? Maybe its just me but surely a massive met office can get something within 12 hours correct? Anyway they never take down warnings when its clearly obvious they are not going to happen so that needs to change

Latest forecast here is 'turning dry in many places with some brightness by the afternoon ' expect that area of snow over Belgium to hit us this afternoon!

Not if you live where I do

I'm talking about the South East warning not Lincolnshire. i.e the 1 out of 3 mess up !

Just to remind people here is yesterdays forecast. If you think they got that right then you must be a top spin doctor

Why - because they have messed up massively . They are presumably responsible for the warnings leading to about a 100 cancelled flights from Heathrow for no reason!. I'm sure the holidaymakers are in Nicks court here. I'd be fuming. 60 miles out at 12 hours notice is pathetic and woeful.

Reading the south west thread looks like some parts have got 15cm. West of us = more in an easterly hmmm. Time to give up methinks ! Still wandering how the met office are so c&&p with their 12-18hour text forecasts. Honestly they are appalling really . And that’s the govt weather dept . I will be writing to my MP demanding action ?. Reigate morning report about an inch max on bins and cars . Not life threatening . What’s with the cancelled Heathrow flights ! That’s surely a joke

How come the met office are so pitiful in their forecast with all their super computers . The forecast today was light snow this morning (actually the heaviest we had all day here not settling though) . Drying up north of London then heavier snow in southern counties afternoon and night . Well it’s not materialised here at all . And I am in the amber warning zone . Nothing here now . What a complete and utter shambles and waste of time . I am a massive snow fan . I just want this lot to bugger off now back get on with spring . I literally have a dusting if that down here . It’s embarrassing telling friends and family about these situations as you look an idiot ! Roll on spring

I see that comments are all over the place on snow potential for the South East . All a bit of a yawn really isn't it? I even see a comment that a beast from the east will deliver to the west i.e Devon Somerset but actually miss the south east out. How the heck does that work. Bearing in mind I got sod all here last time I will not be impressed if the models can't even get a grip with 36 hours to go. How can they suddenly shift north at such a short timescale unless they are(lets face it we know ) pretty sodding useless at detai edited as loads of weird characters appeared presumably a filter for swearing (pretty tame to be honest) odd

Moderate snow here in Reigate