snowspotter

Think you may be right. I may be being unduly pessimisitc , charts are not a disaster by any means and I am in a favoured area.

I have been looking only occasionally the last few days but the impression I am getting is that the high pressure is flabbier and heading more over us. Thus any easterly has in effect been diluted and there are no very cold 850's to tap into. All in all a coldish mainly dry spell , cloudy with a few snow showers in the east but nothing major . After about mid month its a warm up and then I think we will be looking to spring. I've notcied the ensembles on the GFS have been warming up the last few runs . Not looking good if you like cold and snow

Fair enough but cold spell is on its way now I would say barring last minute drama. Not bothered about an easterly yet. 'Looking for the easterly' - the new headline for this winter everyone is using. Get the cold here first and well see what decvelops.

Indeed. The 96hr ECM looks good to me. I reckon there will be some upgrades by tomorrow , just a hunch.

Why bother wasting your time looking at a model that has clearly got problems and letting it irritate you> look at the ECM and UKMO only would be my advice until its sorted (if it ever is)

I can honestly say this easterly wait and the comments on the model output can become exceedingly tedious. One minute everyone is up and posting charts 10 days out and that its 90% certain the next 12 hours the west is going to win and the easterly is put back (again) . Whats the point in saying that its nailed or 90% certain or posting great charts and then the following morning being all glum saying its not. Been on this site years now . To be honest I only now glance at the discussion on the model output. Basically the models are not up to it . They can only pick a trend and to be honest they are not often that good at that. Anything mnore than 5 days and they invariably are inaccurate so to discuss details on them is a complete waste of time imo. As for the current spell a nice cold weekend . Further ahead who knows but my cynical money is on no real easterly of note. If its does arrive I think everyone will be so fed up of waiting for it they will just shrug their shoulders or be moaning about its demise in three days ! . I think we have been talking about it since mid January now !!!. Its becoming like a broken record ! Roll on summer when I can get out more and not be drawn to the GFS !

Well if the latter stages of the GFS verify then I think its normal service has resumed. PV to our northwest , flattened jet and no northern blocking. To be honest we had a great cold spell followed by a slowly declining high pressure to our east. In the overall scheme of things I suspect the cold start to January will be balenced out from now on. A lot of straw clutching going on but sometimes I think you have to be realistic and accept we have had a good winter for cold but that its now likley to return to average. Maybe a few frosts though. The overall trend is there to see in my opinion. No raging atlantic in FI but a pretty average looking set of charts ( if you like cold) . My money is NOT on the ECM solution but I would love to be proved wrong, we need height rises over greenland to show again. Also the high pressure to our east has been a bit irritating recently not moving anywhere and keeping us in no mans land 8 days and counting now without temp dipping below 0c. 15 consecutive nights prior to that below zero!

There seems to be something a bit more interesting on the 7.40 radar link coming into East Kent , i.e a bit of heavier stuff

Currently light snow on and off here. hardly any melt. Decided to make the most of the slightly stickier snow and start work on a large snow dalek , beats going to the gym for some exercise and helps clear the paths at the same time ! Have come back in and confirm dewpoint -0.8c down from -0.5 a bit earlier. Temp 1.8c something coming in on radar later perhaps

Indeed same here in Reigate. My weather station currently showing a dewpoint of -1c and temp 1.3c . still looks ok out there

Just refreshed the European radar link and there seems to have been a gap in data for a while east of the Netherlands . The latest shot shows a very large mass of precipitation heading out of the low countries .

Dewpoints look ok to me and you dont need 528 dam or less in a continental flow for snow (at least thats my understanding think you can go to 540 and still get snow)

My cousin has been moaning about the fact that he has slush/wet snow of close to 1 inch near the coast whereas inland I have 7 to 8 inches in Reigate where we got blitzed.I'd be interested to know whats down there close to the sea

seem to have got very lucky here so far. been tipping it with snow here for about 1 and half hours. My mate says raining in Brighton , I told him this is slightly milder air which (I think should go by about midnight) , hope so as my dewpoint has crept up from -2.5 at 8pm to -1.1c now. hoping it holds tight below 0c until the colder air mixes in !!! thus preserving all the snow

yeah think so , we should get some soon , we are right on the edge of the current band , just need it it edge east a touch

My temperature here is 0.1c dewpoint -2.3c If it rains here I will be shocked and just a tad p****d off to put it mildly Been off sick for two days and was looking forward to this , at least we now appear in the extreme area now !!!!

Morning Steve , yes looks promising. Looking at the radar looks like we are being attacked from the south and west and north ! That area to the south in the channel looks to be ver so slowly creeping northwards ! Currently -5c here

I wouldn't be concerned , the radar as of now already is showing snow just above Nottingham and the 18z shows none there even at 6 hrs from when it was run !

Right this will be interesting - here is the Met Office forecast issued at 15.28 Headline: A severe frost overnight with snow for some. This Evening and Tonight: Continuing very cold with a severe frost. Thickening cloud will bring snow showers from the north later in the night. Some accumulations are likely, more especially over hills. Minimum temperature -4 °C. Tuesday: Rather cloudy with snow showers or longer spells of snow at times, these giving further accumulations over hills. Very cold with a severe night frost. Maximum temperature 2 °C. Updated: 1528 on Mon 4 Jan 2010 I will be interested to see how accurate this proves as basically they are saying snow in northern part of region within 12 hours from now . Bearing in miond this forecast changed quite a bit from this morning I would be surprised if it is remotely accurate. I will take my hat off to them if its close . Personally down here in Surrey I would not be surprised to see it arrive more towards the evening if at all ! . Maybe I am being pessimistic BUT having said that things have been put back endlessly or not materialised recently regarding stalled /failed troughs and occlusions . It would be nice to think JUST ONCE that this forecast is accurate !! p.s. I do however expect some snow before the weeks out !

Without being rude I have to say there are some ridiculous posts on here about lack of snow showing on the 6z. Cold High with easterly flow plus low pressure to our south is going to mean snow. I find it rather annoying to be honest. Plus its cold out there in case you have not noticed and looks like that for at least 10 days plus. If people hang on to every single run they will end up nervous wrecks and manically depressed Cold is here and snow will follow

If you look at this loop you can see area of cloud moving down just to north and west of london. http://www.sat24.com/images.php?country=gb&sat=ir&1220913684609 Radar currently showing a few light flurries developing on this.

Interesting that the temperature here has just dropped from 4.2c to 2.7c in less than 35 minutes. Cold front I suspect. Might slow down the thaw a bit

Unfotunately we have heavy rain. Was hoping the rain would be lighter and showery which would have given me a fighting chance to keep some until xmas day. I would say it will all be gone by then which is slightly disappointing. Cannot complain too much I suppose bearing in mind 6 days snow cover already . Looks like another cold one brewing after brief warm up. Currently chucking it down here nad temp slowly going up 3.9c at moment

last night we had snow but the temperature rather irritatingly struggled up to 0.5c for a few hours after midnight, I suspect all my powder snow will now be crusty and iced up. ! Temperature has fallen when cloud disappeared , currently -2.5c. We managed about 1cm by looks of things of snow. Still looks like another lovely day here ahead. Just hope temps do not go up too much in next few days or the snow will be gone

What a great day out there. snow everywhere and -4c. Ice day here methinks with more snow later tonight. Gonna try and get out there and enjoy some walking into Reigate to get some last minute xmas shopping! . makes a change not having to do it in the pouring rain and mild muck. <_< I was half thinking of getting some old skis I have in the loft out but would probably break a leg as they have not been serviced for 5 years and will probably have seized up bindings .