snowspotter

So glad I didn't get sucked into the model thread this time . When people post charts showing -18HPA air etc it raises false hopes . I was waiting until Sunday to even look what was panning out . To be looking at every run from a week back is almost always going to end in disappointment . Still time for upgrades by end of weekend but we know the likely outcome will be the opposite probably !

You need netweather to have a coldies only thread !

All the talk of front loaded winter seems like a load of hogwash. At least it's dry . Although I suspect the Atlantic will soon fire up and bring storms . I can't see any sign that things are going to get better at all

Those anomaly temperature charts will no doubt be blue in the summer!. I really can't get that excited by a positive chart in February as it will just mean dismal gloomy weather. I'd rather a climate with seasons not the same old dross all year. This winter needs to be consigned to the bin. Get a high pressure over us and some sunshine

Sorry we might end up with the coldest February ever , just speaking from experience! not saying we wont get snow and maybe even a reasonable fall but I mean ice days etc. does seem the whole climate is just very warm this year globally. Mild is milder then normal etc

Anyone based in the South at least can forget any meaningful snow after Mid-February. So I think bearing in mind the current set up it is time to call this winter over for us Southerners. Sure we may well get some snow but not anything long lasting on the ground. I am basing this on the fact that I am 52 years old and there has not been one really cold snowy spell down here after Mid February . In fact the only one early February is the 1991 epic. If you want a week long snow on the ground you might need to head to high ground up North or maybe USA/Canada, The Alps or Scandinavia. If your in Dublin , Cornwall or the Isle of WIght I'd give up ! I always think Mid February is the cut off down here due to stronger sunshine etc. I dont see the point in a March Easterly that just provides days of snowfall and bugger all on the ground other than a bit on the downs

Your having a laugh look at some of the videos on that US site >> Heres one >.http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47720-123-24-randytastic-blizzard-obs-accums-pics/page-39

I know where your coming from but realistically when was the last time the lizard peninsula had any sort of cold spell . I struggle over here so it must be pretty rare for where you are !

I cannot quite understand why over on the model thread people are putting so much energy into each run when clearly they are all over the place. There is zero continuity over the last four GFS runs which should tell you everything you need to know about taking each run as gospel. The other models are the same to be honest Also if I had a pound every time someone said either ECM, GFS or UKMO had won , picked up the trend, got egg on face etc I would be pretty rich by now . NONE of them have got much right at all as its not a default mild pattern , same every cold spell !

I'm sorry but the GFS must have lost the plot to develop a low like this in 15 hours. Its almost like it has just thought it up to try and smash the heights to our east . It cannot be plausible surely

Heavy snow here settling on grass and cars

indeed how much snow was there on Reigate Hill guess its all gone now?

heavy snow here just about settling but wet . North downs I suspect a good covering by now

Dewpoint and temp have just dropped 0.5c in last hour . Looking more like snow now and a big blob on radar about to hit!

Eastnor Road near garden centre . snowing here now but you can probably see that :-) I suspect that slight height will mean all snow up there

looks like wet snow sleet here. I'm guessing north downs , thinking Box Hill Reigate Hill will be less marginal due to elevation

dunno I'm in Reigate . Missed the earlier snow as work in London but pleased to see it settled ,had to scrape car in Redhill after getting off train. Think we might get lucky later

Just to confirm that here in Reigate the dewpoint on my weather station has started to drop from +0.1c to -0.5c in last 45 minutes . Problem is temp +3c and little precipitation

I have a question on the modelled output we have this winter. In marginal events such as we have would the result say 40 years ago be any different to what we are currently seeing ? . What I am thinking is if we had an identical pattern then would the temperatures be lower?. January CET average 1961-1990 was 3.8c whilst 2001-2014 is 4.7c i.e substantially warmer. I appreciate different synoptics are possibly the main cause? but is there an element of 'warming' in the output difference between the two. Its a question that bugs me when we get patterns like this. Cant help but feel that if it was 1960 todays rain in the south might have been snow.

Just had about a minute of snow here to confirm snow drought over

I think we can safely say the OPI is down the pan. Absolute rubbish from the models , the GFS upgrade may as well be binned for all its consistency. I actually think they are worse the they were 5 years ago

No chance mate a repeat of 1947 is on the cards you wait and see

We've been spoilt last few winters . This one is destined for bin. raining and stormy all the way. Total rubbish. 26th January and not a single flake of snow down here. although news did day possibly a wintry shower tonight. Almost February , one more winter month and that will be it. All rather depressing

I see absolutely nothing to get excited about with regards to anyone looking for cold south of the Midlands. Here in the South East I would say absolute zero chance of anything snowy. Frankly any talk of snow to me seems like hope only. As for comments in the model thread of snow fest there are obviously a lot of people who have not a clue about the models. I've been on this site for years I am almost tempted to write off this winter. With the strongest jet for years there seems little hope to me of anything materialising especially if this latest spell just gets swept away as I suspect it will by a westerly regime. Looks to me like tonnes of cold rain . sorry folks !.

Just had a light snow shower here in Reigate, thicker cloud around now,was some sunshine earlier