Dangerous55019

Although I should point out, just a few miles further west than I am currently @Frosty.. Lol.

I've got me eye on it @karyo Its currently the other side of the Clwydian Range... But I can see the dark skies.

Ahhhh... Edison Lighthouse - Love Grows... A true 70s classic song Sorry, off topic there (ish) but I've just driven into work listening to Gold on the cars MW/AM radio, and there were quite a few sharp sferic crackles on the old wireless... So something's about. I'm probably picking up that storm that's over Snowdonia at the moment. Its very warm and muggy here at the moment, but still with that notable southerly breeze. Plus the sun has just come out... Oh boy is it hot in the sun!

Afternoon @karyo The wind is very warm here but dropping... And the hazy sun is getting hotter... Fingers crossed that this could all come together for us. Afternoon @Supacell Ahhh yes, I remember that day very well, this was the legacy of the previous nights storms that I saw before heading off to work... And yes the sky was really that colour, it was an incredible sight. Plus we even managed a high elevation storm later on in the evening as well. Here's hope for something even better today.

Skies are just dull and grey here at the moment... The sun is trying to burn through... Its warm, but nothing exceptional... Its also really quite breezy. We really need the sun to break though this grey crud, thus allowing the heat and humidity to build, and then hopefully... For some reason this setup is reminding me of the 22nd of August 2015... Nothing really cleared around here until 14.00 in the afternoon... It was a very hot and humid afternoon... But then oh boy did it go bang in the evening.

I didn't want to clog up this forum last night, as there was so much going on... But last night whilst out with the dog, I saw the first signs of instability in the atmosphere over these parts. Certainly no guarantee of a storm, but a good and encouraging sign.

Morning all WOW!! What a day yesterday turned into for you folks down south! I hope that everyone is safe and with no damage to report, although I have read about and seen whats happened to those poor folks in Coverack, Cornwall. Today the main interest moves north wards, as normal I'm using the Cape and LI charts from the 00z run from GFS. Fingers crossed that everyone who wants a good storm today gets something (myself included) As always check the Skew-T charts, storm radar, and of course this forum. But good luck to everyone with this today, and lets hope that this delivers.

Morning all For what it's worth, here is my daily look at the Cape and LI charts from the 00z run on the GFS for today. Now although this doesn't cover my area, there is a lot of potential further south. I'm starting off todays look at the charts from 09.00 this morning and carrying on up to midnight. As with always on these things please use the Skew-T charts for your area, watch the sky, and storm radar, and also this forum... As once again it'll come down to Nowcasting once things start to kick off; which hopefully they will. For those of us further north, tomorrow is the main interest, and I'll try and post something up later about that, plus I don't want to confuse it with todays fun down south But good luck to everyone with this today and hopefully you'll get the good show that we all want

*Bows* Thank you @Letitsnowyorkshire Its my favourite season as well Personally I can't wait for the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness to begin again.

Afternoon all I'm a bit short on time today, so hence a short post... Right as normal, I'm using the 00z run for consistency, and I've cherry picked these two charts... Now the one thing that strikes me looking at these (or certainly the top chart) is the stupidly high Cape and LI figures forecast for Northern France (Cap in place?) but when you look at the storm risk charts, its looking like the English Channel could be the prime place to be! So for Tuesday, being as its only tomorrow, I'd say anywhere along the South coast (from Cornwall to Kent) could hopefully get a really impressive light show. And finally, I have cherry picked this chart for Wednesday... This shows the storm potential moving northwards. I personally think that these will be home grown storms, whether or not these will be homegrown MSC or Super cells, I dunno. But I do think that for the rest of the UK that Wednesday shows the most potential. I'll post tomorrow when hopefully the details will finally start to get nailed on, but I'm really hoping that this could be the big thundery breakdown that we're all craving. Sorry if this post seems rushed only I'm typing at one hell of speed here, and I do hope that you're all able to read this at the same speed as I've typed it. Lol

Thank you @Nick L I second everything you say there, autumn is a truly beautiful season, hence its my favourite time of the year.

Morning @seaside 60 We had loads of misty mellow days here last year, and it looked and felt wonderful I just hope we get more like that this year as well.

Morning @MP-R Ahh yes... The clapped out remains of hurricane Bertha in August 2014... yes, it did stir the atmosphere up a bit. Lol Personally I've got no problem about September having become an extension of summer, as with the shorter days, and the misty starts to the days, there is a different feel to things when compared to say July... Its like enjoying the last gasp of summer before things really change. I remember those cloudscapes of October 2014, they were indeed stunning. Plus I agree, more frost late autumn, and a few more gales come November time. And, and just for good measure... Here are a few of the misty, foggy pics that I manage to take last year... I do hope we get more days like this in the coming autumn... Forgive the pun, but I'm getting all misty eyed thinking about it. Lol

Evening @summer blizzard 2014 was a lovely autumn around these parts, and I distinctly remember that in August (yes I know that's a summer month) that once it had gone 18.00 in the evening, a noticeable cooling freshness descended... It was like autumn reaching out... And as I say, the autumn that followed was lovely 2009 was also pleasant autumn around these parts as well, as was 2005 ... BANK! Evening @stainesbloke Seconded, thirded and fourthed with everthing you've said there.

After a bit of a grey start, I have to say what an absolutely beautiful summers day it turned into Now I know many will disagree with, but I found it perfect, almost clear blue skies with just a few odd bits of cloud around, loads of pleasant sunshine, and plenty warm enough, without the crippling heat... If the rest of summer 2017 carries on like this then you shall hear no complaints from me.

Morning all Well here we are once again, staring down the barrel of yet another potentially thundery breakdown... So for consistency I am again using the latest 00z run from the GFS... Lets start the ball rolling on this coming Tuesday... The one thing that strikes me looking at these charts is that it looks to be an extremely promising event for the South West of the UK, but as always please check the Skew-T charts on the day as this could all still change. But at the moment, its looking good And now onto Wednesday... Now then, I've covered all of Wednesday with these charts... Now then, the one thing that strikes me looking at these charts is that there is quite a discrepancy between the Cape/LI charts on the left and the storm risk charts on the right. But this is still five days away, so I'm not too concerned about this at the moment, as potential showing is potential showing. As always check the Skew-T charts on the day and also use storm radar, now casting, praying to the weather gods etc nearer the time. But fingers crossed that this could hopefully be the 'BIG' thundery breakdown that so many of us are craving.

Just been out with the hound (yes I know it 05.00 in the morning), but I have to say how much noticeably darker it is this week when compared to this time last week! ... And yes I know it's cloudier as well... Just another sign of the small changes on the run towards autumn

Evening @Don I see where you're coming from, but remember these are long range forecast models, and as such they could be right, but they could be wrong. Just look at how the GFS along with the ECMWF, and the UKMeto model all disagree at a much closer time scale. I have seen these long range models hit a certain weather event smack on the head... But have got the forecast for the month as a whole totally wrong. As I say, this is only for a bit of fun to see what might happen this autumn... Plus as we all know, Mother Nature can catch everyone, and every thing out. So personally I'd say don't worry about it, as everything is still all to play for as regards this coming autumn.

Evening everyone Right... Last night I had a look at what the CFS V2 was forecasting for this coming autumn, so I thought this evening I'd have a look at what the Canadian Cansips model is showing for September to November... This far out it is only for fun, but hey, isn't that what it's all about? September... So again, this model is showing the same as the CFS V2 and going for a nice warm and settled September... Hopefully providing those pleasant misty mornings and evenings, as the days get shorter. October... So October is showing a very weak area of low pressure over the bulk of England and Wales, but on the other hand average precipitation, with ever so slightly above average temperatures... Probably due to the NW/SE angle of the jetstream. Certainly not a washout, but possibly q bit blustery from time to time... And after all this is October we're talking about And finally November... Sooooooo, for November, it shows a notable area of low pressure, just off the west of Ireland, with average temperatures, and below average rain fall... I'm wondering is this model has picked up on a couple of big storms that could rattle in interspersed with high pressure... Blustery followed by find settle and hopefully a few foggy misty days? ... I'll take that

Evening @CreweCold Ermmmm... You've actually posted charts for December 2017 and January 2018... And this is the Autumn thread. Lol

After the dull grey wetness of yesterday, this afternoon has provided some surprisingly good convection. Unlikely to go bang around here, but still nice to see.

Evening everyone, as promised here is a look at what the CFS V2 model is showing for this autumn... So here is what the CFS V2 is showing for September... As we can see, its showing an area of high pressure stretching from Greenland, over Iceland, and down over the UK, if this is true (remember this is a long range model) then this would probably be fetching the winds in from the east/north east, which ties in with the drier than average rain fall chart... But remember the peak of the heat will hopefully be over, so hence not than much of a warmer than average temperature anomaly. Right... October... As we can see, there is an area of high pressure just to the north of us here in the UK... At this time of year I think this could fetch us those misty foggy day days, along with some beautiful sunny days as well... Hopefully to get those autumn colours to there absolute best. And November... Yet again, high pressure is right over the to of us here in the UK!! So I'd say lots of potentially frost and foggy days here. I know it says warmer than average... But with high pressure sat right over us, it would soon cool off at night... I just hope that we're not staring down the barrel of a gloomfest with this chart... Fog is atmospheric... Dull slate grey skies? No thank you.

Evening @MP-R Thank you. I remember 2004 - 2006 very well, I remember watching on the web everyone else getting the storms, and thinking 'What's happened?' It was such a relief when that storm in 2007 came along to break the drought. Yes!! The 3rd and 4th of July 2001, what a fantastic time for storms that was... I hope we see something like that again

Evening @Dami I totally agree, autumn is the best time of year for me as well You'd love it around here, being with horses, you tend to live in boots... As the horses tend to plodge the ground up... Plus its always nice to walk through the fallen leaves. And swerving swiftly back on topic... After I've had me tea, I'll have a look at what the CFS and the Canadian Cansips models are showing for this coming autumn.

Whilst walking down to say good morning to the 'orses, I saw my first Lord and Ladies plant of the season today, with big green juicy berries on it... Always a good harbinger of the season to come.