Costa Del Fal

Really getting going down south now. Would hope some activity gets going a little further west to offset the nne track these storms will probably take. Some good convective skies now too.

Seems like things are kicking off nicely now. Though for here I'd rather things happened a bit further west to offset the slight nne tracks of these showers.

Indeed the record is 23.9c I believe. Very small of chance of beating it but very respectable with 22-23c lows.

No sun tomorrow? Geez thanks for bringing a depressing edge to e thread. :(Much better prospects for thundery potential tonight and in the morning. Kicking off as expected to the south now over Wiltshire and Dorset! looks like the cap may have just been a little stronger than expected. Some interesting cloud formations now too here. And 30c reached again. 5th or 6th time of this spell I think!

Indeed, well conditions are ripe, we have huge Cape and even a convergence line but nothing. Not much else to add really. However focus is more from now onwards however until about 10pm id say.

NAE 12Z seems to shift things East/Delay events. At this rate Ill see nothing as ill be in Wales from tomorrow afternoon!

Indeed, all models seem to have downgraded just shortly before what seemed was a chance. Tonight and tomorrow morning however are looking much more larger scale so confident there will be some activity tonight in the Midlands. This afternoon wont happen. No convection whatsoever. Just 30c and sunny now!

Where is this bang I was promised? 29c now though. In all seriousness its much quieter than I expected. Might have to just rely on tonight here.

Yep 29c now. Hot and humid and very sticky. Very little convection however. Could be a lot of convective energy going to waste. Still lots of time left but expected more by now.

Erm, no it isn't!!! It's Most defo West Midlands region.Still far too much hazy high cloud muck here. Not confident at all right now.

Paul Sherman offering a ray of hope: "Finally getting clues on where the Convergence Zone is for today and where the expected Storms should fire, looks to be setting up from Western Parts of Suffolk and Cambs border across to Worcestershire and SE Wales area. Would say anywhere North and North East of These areas have a pretty decent chance of a Surface Based Storm this afternoon, ascent could come from additional trigger over the Chilterns or Cotswolds for example. Midlands looks perfectly placed " ------------ And indeed some convection getting going in S Wales now!

Got to love the hole of nothing appearing over the West Midlands again. Beginning to feel chances are slowly slipping away from us as winds are a little too SSW'ly than I thought and this stupid cloud hanging around. Still down to nowcasting but not quite as upbeat as last night.

Very warm now. Humid too at 23c. Hazy sun still. Annoyed at how stubborn the cloud is here in the west today when further East its broken up! What sense is there in that! Expecting 29-31c IF the sun comes out properly today otherwise 26-27c.

Sun breaking through now. 21c too!

Well the humidity is there. On sat24 it looks like the cloud will clear soon and much quicker than yesterday.

MONDAY: Cloudy but some sunny spells for Kernow. Cloudy start then Sunny for Channel Islands with thunderstorms likely evening and overnight. 19-26c Cornwall's Forecast: http://www.cciweathe...wall/4573724902 Channel Islands Forecast: http://www.cciweathe...ands/4573977985 182 Followers @kernowweather including Edward Sault & BBC Channel Islands!

Take it your thinking very similar for the W Midlands conurbation? Again looks good for surface based action late afternoon/evening then an MCS overnight/Tues Morning.

Thanks Bish! Yes hopefully I made sense there. I dont know the ins and out of all the parameters but I hope I have an intermediate understanding of the key variables and factors at play. Unfortunately it looks like tonight may remain mostly quiet. Already has gone quiet on the S coast. Though I did only have tonight at a medium risk. Still could re develop. Main focus around 6pm-9am Monday evening and Tues Morning. Worth noting, surface convergence could help initiate storms tomorrow evening. GFS looks good to have this convergence around the W Midlands region in the evening. NMM rather similar, maybe slightly further E.

My musings for the West Midlands region: Its about the instability in the upper atmosphere. We now have a plume destabilising and its usually down the spine of that plume which have the best chances. With upper winds being S or SSE this is PERFECT for the West Midlands. Very 28th July 2008 esque. Elevated storms mean what happens at the surface is of little regard really. That ever advancing plume North may be enough to sustain the storms for a while. Tonight id say a 40-60% chance of an elevated thunderstorm affecting Gloucester, Worcester, Bromsgrove, Kidderminster, West Midlands and maybe into Southern Staffs. Being elevated, dont expect much Thunder but lots of beautiful lightning possible and some rain. Storms may become more surface based as daybreak occurs. Then tomorrow afternoon upper winds remain very similar so expect more of the same however now more surfaced based until overnight so more chances of severe weather. Some models hinting at more activity tomorrow night. From Tuesday midday, risks transfer to the East. So a good 3 or so chances here guys!

Its about the instability in the upper atmosphere. We now have a plume destabilising and its usually down the spine of that plume which have the best chances. With upper winds being S or SSE this is PERFECT for the West Midlands. Very 28th July 2008 esque. Elevated storms mean what happens at the surface is of little regard really. That ever advancing plume North may be enough to sustain the storms for a while. Tonight id say a 40-60% chance of an elevated thunderstorm affecting Gloucester, Worcester, Bromsgrove, Kidderminster, West Midlands and maybe into Southern Staffs. Being elevated, dont expect much Thunder but lots of beautiful lightning possible and some rain. Storms may become more surface based as daybreak occurs. Then tomorrow afternoon upper winds remain very similar so expect more of the same however now more surfaced based until overnight so more chances of severe weather. Some models hinting at more activity tomorrow night. From Tuesday midday, risks transfer to the East. So a good 3 or so chances here guys!

Good chance if this hitting here tonight. And with tomorrow evening and Tuesday morning at chance here, I'd say this area has one if the best multiple chances!!!

Yep quite likely to hit us. They are elevated probably too so won't die out fast. Tomorrow morning and evening hold good chances for us.And just because it isn't very warm at the surface doesn't mean storms can't happen. The upper air is becoming very unstable now and will transfer to the ground tomorrow too hence becoming very humid.

Sunny now. Risk of storms around 4-7am, 5-10pm tomorrow and Tuesday morning!!!

Ugh don't like the look for tomorrow. Suggests everything being east and north if here. Not what was forecast before.

Are you blind to tomorrow's potential?Meanwhile if the met office predict 29-30c here tomorrow I'm thinking 31-33c possible!