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Costa Del Fal

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Everything posted by Costa Del Fal

  1. Costa Del Fal
    New cells South of Worcester now heading for here but have little confidence. Despite some of the best juice being here it still isnt enough. However if this was E of Bham it would be an MCS by now...
  2. Costa Del Fal
    Oh dear, and to think Kent was supposed to miss out. Everything has ended up way East than forecast again. Id say about a 20% chance here now.
  3. Costa Del Fal
    Looks like Kent will get a storm soon. And they were at a lower risk than us for this evening!!!! Night all.
  4. Costa Del Fal
    Are you seeing these flashes to your south, towards my way?
  5. Costa Del Fal
    zzzzz Bust here im sure of it now.
  6. Costa Del Fal
    Cant see where its coming from tbh. Earlier in the day it looked great for an MCS to track our way but slowly through the day it looks like the E mids as per usual. But ive enjoyed the heat and at least I got to hear a little thunder this evening.
  7. Costa Del Fal
    Same feeling here now. Everything just seems to have magically shifted East tonight. Even southerly winds shortly arriving replacing the SW/SSW ones wont be enough. Leicestershire to Lincs in the ripe zone again.
  8. Costa Del Fal
    Grr looks like everything will be East of Birmingham tonight now. Same old same old. Looked promising for us too until this evening. Dont know why the cells are rapidly dying as soon as they form. Such a juicy atmosphere up there gone to waste over this way today.
  9. Costa Del Fal
    Latest storms down south have faded again. Models seem to be firming up on tonights/tomorrow mornings stuff being East of Birmingham too. Same old same old.
  10. Costa Del Fal
    Over the next couple of hours, storms should begin to travel in a more Northerly direction than NE therefore I disagree with some forecasts about an overnight MCS focusing on just the E Midlands unless it stays well formed over that way. W areas likely to be hit too.
  11. Costa Del Fal
    Looks to be kicking off again in Wiltshire and environs. Also good interest approaching Devon.
  12. Costa Del Fal
    All seems to be dying away again. Would have expected more given the energy about and nocturnal cooling. Heard some nice thunder at least.
  13. Costa Del Fal
    Havent heard any thunder in the last 5-10mins though.
  14. Costa Del Fal
    Thunder here in last 20 mins or so from the Worcester cell. Deep, distant rumbles.
  15. Costa Del Fal
    Deep distant rumbles of thunder in the last 20mins or so here.
  16. Costa Del Fal
    Woop cells towards Gloucester now!
  17. Costa Del Fal
    Ugh feels like im walking into glue outside. Feels very heavy and thick.
  18. Costa Del Fal
    Of course there was times which flipped to an extent but by far the majority of runs favoured a settled and hot July and thats what weve had! You need to consistently view the runs in order to gauge a trend. I believe the CFS did rather well over the winter and for June. Of course being a long range model it wont be perfect but ive been very impressed for this month!
  19. Costa Del Fal
    If you look for the trends the CFS has been excellent. It predicted this fantastic July a long way out!
  20. Costa Del Fal
    Greatest chance after midnight when upper winds turn southerly rather than sw as they are now so anything that develops around Dorset etc will head to the West Midlands. This applies throughout tomorrow morning too. Until then expect very little unless something develops sw of us.Very oppressive here now as humidity is shooting through the roof and still 28c!!!
  21. Costa Del Fal
    Humidity is shooting through the roof now. Extremely oppressive. I'm sweating just sitting outside!!!! Still near 28c or so. Upper winds will turn more southerly after midnight so storms will drift more to us in the w mids.
  22. Costa Del Fal
    Hmm we need something to develop in se Wales to affect here. A little doubtful on that. May need to wait till upper winds are more southerly rather than ssw/sw like now.
  23. Costa Del Fal
    Yeah everything is pushing more NE than I thought it would but overnight the movement should become more northerly. Meanwhile the latest image from here.... (Sorry image is not straight!)
  24. Costa Del Fal
    I know you don't like storms but I have to be honest and you are in one of the most likely places to see a storm - even more sol than me right now!
  25. Costa Del Fal
    Fwiw recent CFS runs seem to have dropped the horrible looking August for something more mixed with occasional Azores ringing though not as significant as we have seen recently.
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