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Posts posted by Costa Del Fal
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Pictures Tony! :lol:
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Same, just falling snow would be a change and yes, this band will arrive here when temps are dropping anyway and sounds likel they are dropping under the band anyway.
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Snow seems to be falling quite readily in Wales now. Only concern is hoping that the ppn can maintain intensity over here.
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Tony in the Welsh thread is reporting sleet nearly at wet snow now at just 126m ASL.
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A decent chance currently of a few wintry showers or a little back edge wintriness on Christmas Eve.
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Mr Benn you really shouldn't worry. I don't think tonight will be too troublesome if at all. Latest models remain similar to last night. Mix of rain sleet and snow with an emphasis on sleet and snow above about 150m in the Black Country, Malvern, Clent, Shropshire and staffordshire hills I'd say.
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Indeed as I described earlier, visibility was so bad for a time it may as well have been Dense Fog out there. Amazing it really was for a brief time.
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PS on topic E4, re tomorrow's trough in afternoon we are running with notion of E4 timing being circa 2-3hrs fast... hence slower progression eastwards preferred; e.g. across Cotswolds around 17-18z.
Possibly better for increasing snow chances then as by then temperatures should be a little lower than the days peak, not that they will be very high anyway?
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does leicester have a chance. And what time does it shlw the snow arriving?
Yep a fairly good chance right now but band probably thinning by the time it reaches the East Mids but maybe an hour or a bit more of some ppn likely. Fairly wet any snow. Maybe a slushy slight covering at best there.
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18z NAE is very good bringing the West Midlands into the heart of tomorrows ppn.
C'mon Conor you still get a decent shout on that run and it will shift a bit more. Given todays runs the best of it is going to be somewhere in the Midlands. No recent runs are giving SW England a chance so we can probably rule them out.
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Squall just passed through here. Not very windy but some of the craziest rain Ive ever seen. Very brief but mad. I would descrive it as ROG, Rain and visibility so bad it gave Fog like conditions. Possibly was a little Hail mixed in too. Short but sweet.
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Lights just flickered here a bit too. Rare that happens here!
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Lights just flickered here a bit. Quite rare that happens here!
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lol I think Gavin has some sort of fetish thing going on for charts showing high pressure.
You know that huge area of squally rain we were posting about earlier? I think it's safe to say it has arrived in Solihull right now
Bish
Im all for high pressure in Spring and Summer but we did a bit of excitement so now is good. Dont want damage etc though. Sadly Gavin is abusing the like system like no other and just liking posts only which conform to his agenda. Sadly it borders on trolling even if he doesnt mean too imo.
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AARRGGHHH did you have to Bish? :lol:
And then Gavin goes and posts a boring chart on the Mod thread of high pressure incoming again at the end of the ECM.
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12z EURO4 takes tomorrows precip right through us. Perhaps a little more marginal. Still think Black Country and Birmingham and surrounding higher areas doing OK. Still expect little if any settling snow but any falling snow would be appreciated to see!
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Getting pretty gusty now. Pretty mean looking Radar.
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Latest 12z NAE has snow for Wales and the West Midlands only tomorrow now. No more further North now please!
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3 Years today also since that epic snowstorm on Saturday 18th, around 25cm of snow here that day and meltdown on the roads. What a day!
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Yep the 06z Euro4 model and the NAE going for snow over the Central and Southern Midlands tomorrow. Probably will be very marginal. Black Country and Birmingham areas probably have a better chance due to some extra altitude.
Settling minimal if any. Hope I see something Or I may never see any this Winter otherwise!
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Tomorrow evening doesnt look too bad anymore. Wind gusts have been downgraded from 60 to about 45mph now. Wish everything would stop downgrading, even any chance of a little wintriness near Christmas is fast vanishing.
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Showery Christmas day according to the ECM, temperatures cool but not overly cold. Boxing day looks like being something truly awful though.
Wasnt it yesterday that the Vortex was forecast to be pushing East by Boxing day. Seems to be being pushed back?
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Hope the GFS 12z isnt correct. Will be pretty bland after this week and Boring.
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A poor lower resolution GFS with the PV reforming into one blob to the north. It's imperative with this set up that you get that lobe of higher pressure into the Arctic to stop that from happening like the ECM at T240hrs. If you don't have that lifting out of low heights into Greenland then you lose some of the forcing to edge the jet further south.
In the higher resolution we see a deepening low running east/ne from the base of the trough, always a possibility with this set up, there could be some wet snow on the northern flank of that as it runs into the North Sea if it verifies.
FI is seriously windy however. Very deep low after very deep low. Now I know the GFS likes to go a bit crazy but these are some of the most unsettled charts I have seen in a long time. Very unstable. Could be one of the wettest and windiest Christmas for some time.
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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13 16z----->
in Regional
Posted
Currently 5.6c here and 2.7c DP but this will begin to drop now.
Cheer up Summer of 95, In what is an otherwise pretty bad pattern for coldies, were doing a damn sight better than most of the country will achieve.