Cleeve Hill

When we lived in Antigua in 2017. Hurricane Irma passed us by 35 Miles. Barbuda was devastated. The Islands of St Maarten, BVI, USVI & Turks took the biggest hit. IRMA was a CAT 5++ with sustained winds of 180 MPH although a small centre. I haven't checked in the last few hours but IDA looks like it will be similar to IRMA and Katrina from 16 years ago. A disaster is in the making, sadly.

There are the Cheviot Hills and Northumberland National Park. A very unspoilt part of the UK. The Northumberland Coast Path was very popular last week. Also great place for bird life for those interested in that. Also good rail network.

Just back from a week on the Northumberland coast. I’ve been fortunate enough to see a lot of beaches in my time but you’d find is difficult to beat those Northumberland beaches. This is the view to Farne Islands from Bamburgh. Last weeks weather was fab. No rain, lots of sun and around 18c I reckon. Northumberland is so unspoilt, it’s a real gem for a staycation

Still 20,000 people displaced from their homes. The Caribbean knows Volcano's well. There's been Montserrat which still smoking 24 years after the eruption and St. Lucia has alot of activity by the Pitons.

UKMO is already a world leading forecaster. I recall in 2017 UKMO was the best performing model during the Atlantic Hurricane season. I was living and working in Antigua at the time and the forecast for Harvey, Irma and Maria was very good.

Lucky you. It’s been cloudy all day keen wind and 11.7c as of now. I reckon the trees are about 10 - 14 days behind on last year.

I took from the Met Office website and then posted it in here. Ties in with @tight isobar post.

Met Office is saying the same Friday 26 Feb - Friday 12 Mar Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to expand westwards leading to an increased chance of snow showers redeveloping in the east, for conditions in the north to become generally quite settled and for unsettled weather in the south, with disruptive snow possible. A similar picture continues into March, though milder conditions in the west look more likely to spread northwards. Disruptive snow possible in the South. That's worth staying tuned in for.

Just had a snow and ice warning for tonight on my met office app. 5cm

Just had a met office snow and ice warning appear on my met office app for tonight. Seems to cover a lot of the midlands

YES, these are classic charts for the South West. I remember seeing these in the 80's I reckon. Snow drifts would last for weeks !!

Nick - Who's on the panel ? Hope there's room for John Kettley, & Michael Fish.

For us living in the UK you really have to look at these charts long and hard, because we never see charts with such a long Easterly feed. It’s a sight for our very sore eyes. Enjoy the ride over the next few days

Cheltenham races cancelled again for tomorrrow. That follows the Jan 1st cancellation. Odd really because I dont think its been that wet. Tewkesbury for example has no major flooding this winter. Really hard to call rain or snow tomorrow. Its feel spring like outside right now so am thinking rain more that snow, but the Cotswolds at typically 200m could be the sweet spot.

Yep, I'm just up the M5 from you and its been pretty cold to me. The top of Cleeve Hill held snow for a week and as you say we've had 3 snow events. No big blizzard but its been OK

Love your updates Phil. Voice of reason and perspective.

70% of the time SSW's provide colder weather for the UK. This one is an on-going event no signs of a return to the usual westerly regime. If you look at Scandinavia & Europe there's been a lot of cold and BIG snowfalls across the Alps. It that exclusively down to the SSW, probably not and its only now the effects of the SSW are being seen at the surface.

The CET as of 15th Jan is 2.3C, that's 1.2c below the average. Thats says it all guys. We've seen blocked synoptics now for 3 weeks with snow for many. Just look as some of the snowfall totals in Scotland compared to recent years. Even in the Cotswolds there have been 3 separate snow events since Christmas. Winter is truly here and the remainder of January holds alot of interest for below average temps. February of course is the coldest month statistically so lots to look forward to with severely weakened Trop Vortex. Dont be disheartened by charts at 240 as we should know by now, these rarely verify.

Met Office just issued a snow and ice warning for parts of the south west for tomorrow.

Love your input Tamara. Don’t be a stranger - looking forward to your next instalment.

If the Atlantic high can stay put then it is only northern Scotland that sees a westerly flow. The rest of us will under calm conditions and hopefully some winter sun and frosty nights. That’s ok in my book for now.

Some lying snow in Bishops Cleeve but now all gone, but Cleeve Hill 300 metres asl had 5 cm and holding on well.

Yep, there is nothing in the whole ECM12z that makes me think this slight warm up is a pre-cursor to the atlantic driven weather of recent winters. This Autumn and early winter is old school with Fog and Frost and isn't is great not to have gales force winds we have become so accustomed too. It all looks different this year and great to see the polar vortex all over the place.

Country file forecast pretty keen on snow for the Welsh mountains - snowdown and mid wales Black mountains. I slight eastward movement and the Clint Hills, Malverns and Cotswolds could see some early winter snow.

This goes back along way. I can remember skiing in St. Anton probably 1980 and so this goes back a long time. I'll say 1964. Nice little game Carinth on this cold foggy day.