Cleeve Hill

The last Cat 4 to hit Antigua was Lenny in 1995 causing EC $315M damage.

In Antigua, so far we've had some showers from the outer rain bands, but right now it is sunny and the usual 33c. Businesses are largely closed and the roads quiet for a working Tuesday. queues at the cash points (in the event of the electric dropping out). Antigua is 17.07 degrees north and Irma has dropped from 16.7 to 16.6 overnight and if it starts to move WNW which if forecast this would be a direct hit. Still Cat 4 but we can see it becoming Cat 5 soon. We are hoping it will turn sooner rather than later and miss to the North. The Hurricane force winds are only 45 miles from the centre with strongest winds in its North side, so we could get lucky but then again......

It's now a CAT 3 and once it's over warmer waters this is forecast to become a larger 4 or 5 storm. It's been over SST of 27c the last 2 days. 28c is the point of refuelling.

Here in Antigua supermarkets were so busy yesterday and extra water bottles batteries etc on sale. Petrol stations also very busy (not just fuel but people filling containers of diesel for generators). The first thing to go here will be electricity so quite a lot of locals will have generators. Government has the utility company working 24 hours lopping trees over power lines (something they should do all year round , not 72 hours before a storm) , but that's Antigua for you. the storm is looking more likely to effect us now than a couple of days ago and the longer it takes the south of west direction the greater the risk for the northern leeward islands, Antigua, st Kitts in the main. We all want the storm to start the recurve sooner rather than later. if it does hit I fear for the local people, many of whom live in wooden homes that are not secured to the land, often just built on concrete blocks. Many properties are uninsured. There is a lot of poverty here and the economy could not withstand this. The island is dependent upon tourism with the main season running Nov - April so there is little money around at present and any significant damage now would impact on the 17/18 season. Anyway fingers crossed it turns north soon. Hurricane shutters going up today !

The Antigua view on Irma is that this will be a hurricane by Friday. It already looks an impressive storm over a wide area. IT looks like it will track West with a touch of north about it and then steer very much west, as the Azores high drifts south west keeping the storm from re curving. It is forecast to be 170 mile north east of Antigua Wednesday but that's such a long way off to be taken too literally. It's going to be a n interesting watch and I sense this will be a major hurricane with the U.S very much in line. Hopefully it will stay clear of our region and where we write property and marine insurance.

Gert is now a Cat 2. Its intensifying as it leaves the warmer waters. SST must still be 80f but quite unusual to be so far north and still have its tropical characteristics.

An update from me in Antigua. There was a tropical wave that came through on 7th Aug, which had minimal effects here but in the BVI (less than 1 hour flight) it brought flash floods and destruction in Road Town. The terrain in the BVI is v hilly to "run off" is the problem there. Insurers had loss adjusters and claims teams on the ground. My point being you dont need a TS or Hurricane to cause an "event". The next 2 weeks looks interesting. There are the two systems on the map and another about to come off the african coast. Its looking a lively season. There have only been 3 years where the G named storm was before 13th Aug.

So, the Atlantic now has our attention down here in the tropics. Its all eyes towards Africa. This latest wave seems to have some legs in it so we will be watching that closely over the next few days. For us in the Insurance industry this will be the topic of conversation over the next week or so.

It took a while but first named Atlantic storm is on the map, TS Don. ESE of Barbados, its way south and likely to stay south with the track being West. This storm developed very quickly. Some strengthening expect but unlikely to become a Hurricance. it is fairly common for named storms to take stay south in the early part of the season, so nothing unusual there. We have stopped writing new property insurance busieness in Grenada, st Lucia, Barbados and St. Vincent until storm passes. The talk on Twitter now (Philip Klotzbach) is that the season shows more signs of active usual activity.

Nothing came of 94L not even and rainy weekend, here in Antigua. In fact cloudless skies this afternoon and 34c !! 94L might however reappear later this week around the Bahamas. Onto the next one.

First decent tropical wave of the season now offshore from west africa. From NHC ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa yesterday extends from 13N20W to 04N20W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is embedded in a deep moisture surge and inverted 700 mb trough. An area of numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 15W and 25W.

Living and working for a leading insurer based in Antigua for the next 3 years. Only a few weeks to go before it's all eyes west Africa coast for those first tropical waves. It's all the talk in the office, plus earthquakes!

Great input this year, catacol.!

A bit disappointing. A dusting on the tops of the Cotswolds and now skies have cleared and temp dropped to 1c.

Temp here 6.0c Dew Point 2.8c

Parts of the Cotswolds are over 200 meters (Cleeve hill is over 300) so pretty confident we will see some decent snow this afternoon.

So, 10 days on from 30th December = 9th Jan. and a scandi high favoured. Seems like a great shout GP.

If all goes to plan the Brecon Beacons should see snow - right height, right location. I live just north of Cheltenham and quite often Cotwolds (Cleeve Hill) and Malverns can be clear but look across to the black mountains they are often white.

To my eyes we are about to see a significant change in Synoptics so far seen this winter. The blocking highs of December are moving and for the first time we can look north west for our weather and with this originating from Greenland directions it will be a very raw and seasonal mix of all sorts, which has to include snow. Both GFS and ECM are now showing this change for next week and I wouldn't look beyond 192 as that rarely varifies. So a long awaited change on its way and it's a wintry one !

Thanks. Certainly did a better job copying across that I did.

RE the link don't think that is displaying properly. Basis Joe is saying big flip for Western Europe with Eurasia vortex setting up in Scandinavia in first week of January. Big chill coming. We shall see

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/812405629465882625/photo/1 something for discussion. Happy Christmas all

Thats true.

Yes, the model output is dire for those of use wanting the cold weather. Looking the present and forward modelling and Fergies comments maybe it was a front loaded winter afterall. The end of Nov and early Dec are perhaps as good as it gets. So close to something akin to 2009 / 2010.

Brilliant Jo. A wonderful place. I think net weather should charter a plane for the poor suffering snow starved fanatics on here. I can think of a few takers straight away: steve M, frosty, north west snow, Feb 1991 to name just a few.