Cleeve Hill

Slightly out of place here but the rainfull radar is quiet cool if you take a look. We have rain moving SW to NE and then behind the front you can seen showers moving NW to SE. You can imagine the front line in between. Signs of the colder weather on its way.

What I like this evening is that all three models are pretty much a likeness at 120 - 168 i.e the reliable time frame. Thats something we dont see much off. On that basis I think we can confidently say we will all be seeing a colder end to November. Once we hit a cold spell you will invariably find it gets extended. I'm enjoying the N Hem profile this autumn with no raging westerlies.

Still very grey and drizzly here. 24.1c

I worked for an Insurance co in Antigua for three years until the end of 2019. I was there for IRMA & MARIA in 2017. As you can imagine Hurricane season was the talk of the office for 5 months, but everyone was only really concerned about the first 3 weeks of September. That is the month for the monster CAT 5++. Tropical Storms or CAT 1 & 2 storms was not a big concern. Sahara Dust always suppressed storms in June & July before the main Cape Verde storms got going. I do worry about the Caribbean. There is a lot of poverty, a lot of uninsured properties and with COVID the tourist industry has taken a BIG hit. If the Islands were to get hit this year there would be unimaginable hardship.

Where do the Dew Points need to be NWS ?

Countryfile forecast highlighting the uncertainty for Thursday with some models showing a system tracking across England generally M4 route. Mix of Snow and Rain if that was to come off. Cotswolds, Chilterns etc.

I saw some stats the other day that say ECM & UKMO at 120 days is circa 95% / 93% accurate but that drop off v quickly to around 50% for anything after 168 +. O really wouldnt be too confident of anything over say 192.

Good to see some changes showing up further down road. There is some talk on twitter of changes to the Strat and MJO. We're already starting to see increased heights forecast which should bring frost and fog and once we get the cold embedded we are in proper winter territory. It is only mid January folks.

The ECM idea of Scandi blocking mid Jan was also something GP hinted at a few weeks ago. There is plenty of Weather Lore about January. Here's a few; A January warm, the Lord have mercy A summerish January, a winterish spring If birds begin to whistle in January, frosts to come

All - Its really not a bad start to Winter. European Alps are looking good for the Xmas period and we dont say that v often. The southerly tracking jet has done the business of the ski industry. Still lots to play for

You can see now why we don't have general elections in December !

A few hours ago John holmes posted about the NOAA NH pressure profile which is probably the most reliable forecasting tool we see. These were showing height rises around Greenland which is good enough for me if we are looking for something colder. Lets not get too bothered by one GFS 06 run

At a height of 330 Metres I reckon the tops of Cleeve Hill could see some of the white stuff tonight/tomorrow.

Here some interesting info for the Coldies. If this comes to fruition then no + NAO and a wintery spell coming.

I'm back in Antigua on Saturday. Was hoping for a quiet season but it's looking the opposite unfortunately. We've already issued a no new business note to all our Caribbean islands. In case you're wondering I work for a Caribbean insurer.

Re Florence it seems the Bermuda / azores high is forecast to intensify. If so then instead of turning NW, Florence is due to stay more westerly and may be impact East coast US in the future. Certainly one to watch. With Florence already at 17 degrees N its v unlikely to effect the Caribbean.

Re Florence, theres now talk of it turning more West in a few days as the bermuda/azores Ridge intensifies moving Florence more towards the US than north Atlantic / UK. Sst's are above average so any tropical system heading into the north Atlantic is likely to have more of an impact

Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic heading your way. That will shake things up.

That should have read are now subsiding - oops.

Things are about to change in the tropical Atlantic. The Sahara dust which seems to have been particularly strong this year is not subsiding and the SST’s are now around average (those cooler SST’s are diminishing). 2 recent August forecasts are now saying an average season (forecasters were talking below average the last couple of months). This is not good news for us in the Caribbean

Here in cheltenham cloudy and breezy around lunchtime. Line of v light showers around 2.00 and then sun comes out, breeze drops and temps up to 28.0

Beryl is such a small storm that it could easily weaken with shear or Sahara dust. It looks like that is what is happening this morning. It's track goes over Dominica which is still recovering from Maria last September.

I'm senior insurance underwriting mgr for a leading property & casualty insurer in the Caribbean. Trust me it's not as boring as it may sound. 3 year contract. After Irma and Maria last year the Caribbean needs a quiet year.

Fortunately its a v small storm, but pretty impressive how quickly it formed. Local forecasters are saying it will fizzle out before leeward islands thanks to Sahara dust.

So from nowhere there are two areas to watch. 1. South of Bermuda which has a 50% chance of development and then a Cape Verde system. Only yesterday this had a 20% chance of developing, today that is now 70%. looks a well organised feature which is due to become a tropical depression before encountering less favourable conditions. Its a bit surprising this one as ocean temps are generally lower this season, but the system is well south where the SST are nearer normal. Hopefully it will just bring lots of rain for the leeward islands to ease the drought here.