Radiating Dendrite

I find it ironic that it is a low over Iberia causing the issues when we have had constant heights there being a pain for the last couple of months. The joys of trying to get snowflake in the UK!

How is it a day behind? We see both runs on the ECM for the recorded time, not from 24 hours ago. It looks to me like the GFS has follwed the ECM from a few days ago, the ECM has jumped and it will take GooFus a while to catch up. I find GFS is good for sniffing out the initial trend and then it drops it only to pick it back up again. It is like a dog: sniff > mmm sniff bottom > sniff bottom > sniff bottom > oh look a stick.....arghhh! > sniff bottom Hopefully we will have some resoltion this evening on the initial low.

Well that is a small improvement to start - I do not think any of the ensemble runs got that cold on the 0z.

One model, not all of them. In all fairness, living in Brighton requires a miracle most of the time to get snow.

Yes, not as cold a set there and a shift in some to a less cold variation on the theme. I would say the 6z is at the top of the pack, not an outlier as it has some support near it. Hopefully just an overeaction to something that will adjust favourably again on the 12z run later.

They do not use a French site. The French site just happens to show the model data (along with all of the other free models used in Europe). Perhaps email the Meto and ask them why they do not host the model on their own site.

No - 1mm = 1cm as a general rule of thumb (though it can vary). Going by your logic, SW Derby had 150mm of rain last weekend lol

Bit pedantic lol It is actually still above average for this time of year. Anyhow, -10c 850s and some instability will certainly do the trick. Some parts of the SE got 30mm of rain from the NY easterly.....it was not torrential, but just didn't stop. 30mm rain = 1ft of snow - think about that for a minute.

I'm signing off for a few days - not sure what I want to witness the toys out of pram carnage in the mod thread.

Do you have stats to back up your FACT?

He is a man looking for perfection. Personally I'm happy with a few wobbly bits if it still delivers the goods

Given that the UKMO usually plays the part of the Grinch in such Synoptic spells, having it so on board is a massive tick. GFS is doing it's usual, underestimating the cold block and hopefully ECM will sneak in the back door whilst nobody is looking trying to maintain is decency (as it has done a few times this winter).

The models don't control the weather, they simply to try to show the most likely outcome.

Looks a little Feb 09 easterly - anyone else agree?

Yes, we could do with the trough a few hundred miles further towards Northern Italy than Iberia to avoid any warmer uppers coming from the SE.

Yes - we get a better draw of air from the NE

Why..... more often than not the ECM has adjusted towards the GFS after going off on one this winter.

I think meh probably sums it up pretty well lol!

Well I think we are in a better place than after the 12z from yesterday. ECM is better, but seems little oomph to lower heights over Europe / Med..... feels like a stuck record.

I would rather take the word of the meto than anyone on here or the free models. They were ridiculed prior to NY when they called a more UK based high....guess what happened! The update was punchy, so MOGREPS must be showing a consistently strong signal along with all the other bit they see that we do not. The ECM has not been great this winter in my opinion, usually playing catch up or overreacting.....a little like GFS of old. It could be right, but I expect a different looking 0z at which point another model will then probably jump ship!

But it is not day 10 - the ECM goes wrong way earlier than that.

I would like more of a NE draw in all honesty. The uppers for the south are still only around -5c at this point. When -8c brought rain at the start of the month, we need more.

Need that another 75 miles south!

Poor? If it leads to the latter frames, I could handle it I think.

Was this in the Daily Dutch, journalist James Von Madden?