RhysWales

Welsh for gales........ (It's not.)

It is quiet in here today! Hint of something potentially bringing showers in from the east on Thursday but that's clutching at straws. Looking dry for the next week or so, temperatures gradually returning to normal, maybe spells of cooler conditions the further south you are. Certainly pretty stale, but at least not the washout last year was! After that, my guess by laws of averages is a return to zonal conditions! Could be totally wrong there though. From an IMBY perspective, 3/10 for this winter- it's always been so close but so far. Quite a few "modern cold" spells which have been a couple of degrees below average, but each one being either marginal for snow or too dry. Really frustrating given the lack of snow over the past couple of years, but at least it's not been the blowtorch W/ SW'erlies that we endured for nearly a year. Being a fan of what I feel is more 'interesting' weather (snow, thunderstorms, wind, extreme cold/ warmth) I'll probably be taking a backseat for the rest of the winter I think! Maybe next year will be our year!

Yep, definitely seems to be moving more south than west, SSW at best. It may graze Gloucester but can't see it getting over the border. So close yet so far yet again!

That's disappointing I guess the Irish sea doesn't help you, a bit like how the Bristol channel makes us a bit too marginal as well.

Hope the NE of Wales have got a good covering off that little band/ big shower moving SE. Midlands should take quite a hit I would think- elsewhere SW Wales should do well with showers over night but not sure of the temps that way. Here in the SE showers look to be getting most of their energy sapped by the beacons. Been a really clear and chilly night here with a thick ground frost. Perfect for snow, but not much around!

Friends up the road in Blackwood with a good covering of snow, before the shower dies on the doorstep of Newport. This winter summed up!

My guess: Landfall at Fishguard, SW Wales, exiting at the Liskeard, giving a foot of snow to all of Wales and SW England. You heard it here first.

Seem to keep fizzling out over the valleys too. We had a light shower west of Newport an hour ago but it pretty much died overhead.

All of the south-easterners in the 'polar low' thread are going for an east midlands-south event. Surprise surprise Fingers crossed we get a nice surprise like this afternoon!

Seems like forecasters can't agree with each other- strange situation for tonight then. Expect nothing (like today) and hopefully we'll have a nice surprise!! Some strong groups of showers in NW Wales by the looks of it heading SE- hopefully will continue to pick up! Anyone in the NW let us know what you're getting?

Turned into what looks like graupel now, coming down really strong but a mile to my west it's completely clear. Weird day!

And it's....SNOW!!! First proper flakes for two years! Don't care if it only lasts a minute!

Strange and revealing drive from college in Crosskeys (near Risca) back home to Bassaleg (west Newport.) Started off in Crosskeys as sleet/ snow and three miles down the road in Bassaleg rain/ sleet and car temp had risen 1c. No real change in elevation but obviously a little closer to the coast, with less shelter from hills. Says how marginal things are. Temp has gone down from 6.5c at midday to now 4c though so fingers crossed it still keeps going that way. Hopefully convection will keep happening and pep the precipitation up over the beacons. Probably the other way around though!

You know your luck's down when SW Wales is looking likely for a bit of snow, and being in low lying SE Wales, you haven't seen a flake for over two years. Best of luck to everyone Swansea/ Bangor westwards. All of us in Wales have been snow starved for too long. I may check back in closer to the weekend to look at prospects for early next week, but I'm getting the feeling this cold spell may be a little like the last one- with only bits and pieces to cling on to. Hope I'm wrong!

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=756146651147147 Ian Ferguson's south west BBC forecast. Looks a little better for south Wales into Thursday morning. Fingers crossed- after the past year or two, I'm sure we would take an 'unexceptional' centimeter or two! EDIT: J10 beats me to it

Well certainly if it's snow you're after, this cold snap has certainly been disappointing at low levels. Can't give up for the winter though- there's certainly murmurings of some better set ups for us in Wales come the end of the month. We'll see though. I think the most frustrating part of this snap has been the tendency for a south west wind making things a bit too marginal. We're exposed to it on the south Wales coast and it really did just make it too mild whenever precipitation came our way. I was watching the north west thread on Saturday and the same was the case for them with the north west winds warming things up to much at exposed low elevations. Still, we've had some frosts and some nice sunshine. Certainly an improvement on last winter so far even if not a classic. Fingers crossed us at lower levels get an inch or two before the winter's out (no innuendo intended! )

He'll still say rain Not getting my hopes up whatsoever, everytime I do things get downgraded!

I always encourage people to not take note of the computer generated 5 day forecasts on the BBC/ MO websites, but they've just been update. Light snow for Newport Tuesday? Could it still be a possibility?

Fair enough Just like imagining being buried under a foot of snow even if it isn't going to happen. Good job I'm planning on moving to Canada in the next few years

Any chance of posting some precipitation charts Andy?

Had a couple of incredible hail and thunder showers this afternoon. If only we could build hailmen! Cars struggling to get up the hill right now!

Unless my eyes are deceiving me it looks as though some of the showers in the Irish sea are starting to come together to form more of a band of ppn. Whether it will be snow or not is another matter. Get the feeling there won't be accumulations to lower levels anyway. Time for bed after having a heart attack watching Everton play me thinks. Maybe I'll set an alarm for 3 am-ish just in case though!

Plenty of lightning visible tonight from the craziness in the Bristol channel! Whatever happens you can't deny it isn't interesting weather! Storm last Friday, this tonight, the storm coming up tomorrow night- keeping us on our toes! Honestly feel we're at the start of a pretty good spell of weather! Blob of precipitation off SW Wales coast that looks to have SE Wales' name on it. Fingers crossed the temps continue to drop and the instability and warm water of the channel beefs it up for a bit of thundersnow later this evening!

Looks like quite a big upgrade for lower levels doesn't it J10? As you saw though- all down to nowcasting- even if conditions are good for snow, it means nothing if the showers are a miss! Hoping for some reverse psychology here

It's a whiteout here in Bassaleg! Of hail that is...