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Obscene! A chart worth framing

Set the alarm for the 0Z upgrades!

-14 uppers well inland.

Oh my goodness

This is the eastern limit of the mild air. Never gets further than the southwest tip of Ireland. Midday temps.

What breakdown I think the 0Z runs may even improve further.

Atlantic struggling to get east on the GFS now. Front slowing to a crawl over Ireland. Cold air hanging on.

Looks like slightly better ridging at 96 hours on the GFS. Cold air is slightly further west at 96.

Big changes afoot on the 18Z GEFS. Strong signal for a ridge to develop and deep cold to pool into central Europe. Could we see something like this on the 0Z in the morning....

At 210 the cold air is pushing back into the SE... Someone put on the Rocky theme music.

Look at that cold pool in Eastern Europe Wow.

Ensembles will be interesting! And the 0Z runs....

18Z GFS is a move in the right direction! If we could just get that ridge to develop a bit further west....

On the 12Z ICON, less cold air is pushing in from the southwest about 24 hours earlier than on the 0Z run. Hoping for better from the UKMO and GFS.

Increasing confidence with each run that milder air will push in from the southwest from Thursday. There is still time remaining for that to change, it's still 6 days away and we all know how much the 144 charts can change, but I do think it looks likely at the moment. There seems to be little in terms of blocking to prevent the Atlantic pushing in. Our best hope is for the low pressure to slide south and hopefully we will see hints of that cropping up on the models soon. But whatever happens, at least the cold spell from the weekend to Thursday does look 100% locked in at this change and some places will be seeing signifcant snow.

Thankfully this is 240 hours away and likely to change! It does look increasingly likely that less cold air will begin to move in after 144 hours, but that doesn't mean there won't be further changes on the models before we get there.

Looking back at 2018, this was the GFS snow prediction just before Storm Emma, which actually produced an offical snow depth on the level of up to 69cm in the east of Ireland and drifts of up to 7 meters in places there due to strong winds.

Any breakdown is still 144+ hours away and as such will almost certainly change from what we are seeing now at that timeframe, for better or worse.

-10 uppers reaching the Atlantic, where they are -6 at the same time on the 12Z

-19 windchill?

06Z GEFS 850 mean at 186 hours looks about 4 degrees colder than than the 0Z for most places. More positive signs.

A little later in the run, -14 almost touches the coast.

Just taking a moment to appreciate an amazing EC ensemble mean chart for 144 hours.

06Z GEFS is out to 126 on Meteociel and the cold air is reaching slightly further west than the 0Z at that time.

Yes, the low is weaker and further west than on the 0Z. It's a small secondary low that spins up and crashes in on Thursday, but that will probably be gone on the next run.