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ECM has a broad area of 2-4cm of snow over the Southeast for Monday/Tuesday.

Flooding looks like being the primary concern on the GFS in the short term with bands of heavy rain for Saturday into Sunday morning. Snow for Scotland and NI and then a more wintry mix of showers following on after the deluge and cooler air encroaches.

Never seen so much excitement over charts with uppers that mainly range from -2 to -4....which is pretty much the same as what a lot of us are currently experiencing this evening. Yes the NH pressure pattern looks great but we are really struggling to tap into proper cold air and the result could be a frustrating mix of cold rain, sleet, some wet snow at times and accumulations mainly limited to high ground and in the north. I do hope we see an improvement but I fear a reality check might be on the way for those trying to silence any talk of the disappointing looking uppers...

GEM highlighting the potential for freezing rain at times next week :

This is the best FI run I've seen in recent days. Oh how I wish this was 148 hours and not 348 hours! Beautiful...

Very wintery out to our west/northwest. We have uppers of 0 to -4

So frustrating to see fantastic output like this... With uppers in the range of just -2 to -4 at the same timeframe The positioning of the area of low pressure is so frustrating. The deep cold air is held away to our northwest. If only the low pressure was further southeast...That's what I am hoping to see in future runs.

On the ECM significant snow in parts of Ireland as early as Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By day 10 there's up to 40cm in the north of England.

Uppers not very impressive on the ECM at T216. Ranging from around -2 to -4. But T216 is a long way off...

GFS and ECM actually broadly similar at T192. Good to see at that extended range.

A snow event for many areas starting on the evening of the 26th on the 06Z GFS

Midday Christmas Day. Festive temperatures. A White Christmas for some

My goodness

12Z ARPEGE showing inland gusts up to 120 kph in places this weekend.

On this run it intereacts with another area of low pressure south of Greenland while crossing the Atlantic. Could change again on the next run. That is not close to being resolved yet.

12Z ICON does indeed ramp up the weekend low a few mb deeper (949mb) and as a result there is a little increase in max gusts on this run.

06Z ICON showing widespread inland gusts of 100-120 kph this weekend. Nothing extraordinary for coastal areas but those type of gusts could lead to some power outages and tree limbs down in the usually sheltered inland areas.

Some of the ensemble members are far too extreme looking. But it is worth nothing though that both 18Z GFS and 12Z ECM are both showing a 960mb low crossing Ireland/UK next Wednesday. The position, shape, orientation of the low makes all the difference with regards to where a swathe of severe winds would or wouldn't be. There is a lot still to be nailed down because it will look a bit different on the 0Z runs in the morning I'm sure, but the potential is there for something significant.

18Z GFS has ~130 kph gusts over London.

Extremely strong winds on the 18Z GFS, especially across the SW.

18Z ICON looking stormy on Sunday. 943mb low. Gusts up to 160 kph in parts of Ireland and Scotland. Widespread inland gusts over 100 kph. Blizzards for high ground in Scotland

The low looks quite strong at even 144 hours on the ECM. I would imagine this will end up quite far north as it crosses the Atlantic...

12Z ECM has followed the GEM by producing a deep low at the earlier time of 120 hours. Now to see if it also produces another storm around the 192 mark...

12Z GEM showing very stormy conditions developing earlier than that GFS low we've been looking at. Looks like a small core of 160 kph gusts aimed at Blackpool.

UKMO develops the low just as the GFS drops it...