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radiohead

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Everything posted by radiohead

  1. radiohead
    Here comes the battleground
  2. radiohead
    06Z at just 102 hours. -10 uppers spilling further westward and -12 has reached the east already. Upgrade on the 0Z.
  3. radiohead
    Colder air pushing slightly further westwards on the 06Z GFS.
  4. radiohead
    0Z ICON extends the cold right to the end of it's run at 180 and looks like it would keep going if the model went any futher.
  5. radiohead
    And even with the less cold upper air over the south, it's still cold all the way out to 240 at the surface due to the snowfields.
  6. radiohead
    0Z ECM is the snowiest ECM run I have ever seen. Extraordinary totals being shown, which would certainly be even higher locally than shown here. And virutally everyone gets some snow. It really doesn't get much better than this.
  7. radiohead
    For the east coast, the op had milder uppers than the mean all the way out, from day 3 onwards (out to 192 so far). A 0Z GFS upgrade looks very possible.
  8. radiohead
    18Z GEFS mean has 4 degree colder uppers than the 12Z in places at 150. This is the kind of trend we want to see.
  9. radiohead
    18Z GEFS out to 132 is an upgrade on the 12Z. The mean has uppers 2 degrees colder for most places at that stage.
  10. radiohead
    Why worry about a breakdown at 168+ when there are already significant changes on the model at 120. There will be further changes to come. Yes, a breakdown will happen at some stage but there's a good chance it will get delayed or some unforseen changes will crop up in the days ahead. Either way, we will have at least a few days of very cold and snowy weather to enjoy. The para run is already showing other more interesting possibilites than the op... Vs
  11. radiohead
    A significant upgrade on the 18Z GFS at 114 hours. Uppers are a full 6 degrees colder in some places.
  12. radiohead
    Early days, but colder uppers on the 12Z GEM at 96 hours than it's previous run.
  13. radiohead
    Colder air pushed pushed north on the ECM at 168. Definitely a downgrade on previous runs but more changes to come in the next couple of days I would imagine, one way or the other.
  14. radiohead
    06Z GFS P is so much better than the OP. A wide range of solutions on offer!
  15. radiohead
    Those little lows are causing havoc on each run. 06Z GFS is both an upgrade for the north and a downgrade for the south at this point... I feel like we are still days away from knowing what will happen. Far too much uncertainty with these lows. Everything has to fall into place exactly right to get that easterly feed.
  16. radiohead
    Not much support within the GEFS members at 150 for how the 18Z op handles the low.
  17. radiohead
    Depends on who is seeing it though! It delivers very heavy snowfall in strong winds, severe blizzard conditions, for some areas.
  18. radiohead
    Oh my word, that low is deepening.
  19. radiohead
    The fine line between heavy snow and heavy rain! Should turn colder for all later though...
  20. radiohead
    Some significant differences on the 18Z already...some areas in that south that had -8 uppers on the 12Z now have -2 at the same timeframe. A 6 degree difference a bit futher north too. Perhaps just a delay though.
  21. radiohead
    18Z ICON has -10 uppers in Scotland on Saturday morning where the 12Z was struggling to get -4. Just shows how quickly and significantly things can swing one way or the other at under 120 hours.
  22. radiohead
    The east would see plenty of snow showers if the GFS 12Z actually happened, yes.
  23. radiohead
    The control run is the same as the OP, just run at a lower resolution, so you will often only see major changes at an extended range.
  24. radiohead
    12Z GEM
  25. radiohead
    UKMO 144
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