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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Widespread very cold air by Monday afternoon. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's coming but slower on the 06Z. There are -6 uppers on the east coast at noon Sunday where there was -14 uppers on the previous run. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Early days on the 06Z, but looks like the cold may be moving westward a little slower. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Potentially. The coldest upper air in the south may end up being a degree or two less cold than 1991 but the overall area of very cold air looks like it will be larger than 1991. It's far too early to predict snowfall amounts though. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
1991 versus 2018(?) -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-13 uppers on a 50 member ensemble mean at 168 hours points to a high level of confidence that this is really going to happen. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Oh my god!! -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Did anyone spot the channel low at 192 on the ECM? -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
At way out at 177 hours, on the southeast coast, the warmest GEFS 850mb temperature is -11.3. All other 19 members plus the op and control are colder than that, most significantly colder. Absolutely bonkers. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Windchill as low as -18 -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You have to go back to 1991 to find comparable cold to that which is shown on the 18Z. There has never been something like this in the Internet era or era of modern computer models. The 18Z GFS gets to within about 1 degree of that event. 1991: 18Z GFS -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Incredible! -16 reaching Wales. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-16 now reaching the coast... And pushing in! Coldest run yet from the GFS. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Absolutely perfect. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Regards timing, we will likely see a merging of the GFS and ECM options. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
My goodness, look to our north. I would love to see a 264 chart... -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Excellent 216. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM moving in the right direction now, though still slower than the GFS. Would like to see one more adjustment further north but I'm certainly not going to complain about this. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12Z ECM & 12Z GFS looking quite similar at T96 -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Listed on Meteociel via the Tableaux GEFS. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
-18.8 on the southeast coast. 8/20 members get down to -16 or below. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It really is incredible to see a GEFS mean chart like this at T180 -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS hi-res ends with probably the biggest snow event/blizzard for Ireland in a generation. Purely fantasy island stuff of course. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What a chart. Could be a major snowstorm or a snow to rain event, especially in the south. -
Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
radiohead replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Windchill.....