clark3r
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
06z reverted back to hot, people seem to be writing of summer on the rogue run, gfs keeps hinting at early august heat so I believe this is a trend and is in line with the ukmo outlook, expect this to gain momentum in coming days -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs has been chopping and changing last few days so I would follow ukm and ECM past next weekend it is very uncertain what will happen -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hopefully ECM is on the ball -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quite another potent heatwave showing on 18z up to the mid 30s then plenty more heat until the end of the run, would not be good for the tinder dry south east if this came off -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs still showing 3 days of hot weather end of July low 30s but it is not looking likely that we will see return of very hot weather or extreme heat -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
3 day hot spell keeps showing end of July low 30s -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs charts this morning show above 25c in south east right to the end of the run, Sunday could hit 30 again, the following weekend showing low 30s again, plenty more warmth ahead -
After this heatwave I think expectations to what we class as a heatwave are going to be higher, e.g we used to class 30 degrees as hot for this country, I now believe it will be more like 33 + amazing how global warming has really kicked in, noticeable in last 10 years record breaking highs, snow in winter becoming very rare esp south uk
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs run this eve has plenty of warm days in the next 7 - 10 days, won’t take much to get another plume -
Woke up 05.30 temp was 24.2 looks like today will be historic for those in east
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Watered the garden at 05.30 this morning 21 degrees, looking at gfs it has a high of 35 for me today, around London we could see 38/39 tomorrow it has 40 for my location tomorrow is going to be unbearable if all falls in to place, interesting still stays hot Wednesday and never gets back down to normal values and hints of high 30s again next week
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Is it because low to the sw is going to draw up exceptional hot air again -
I really can’t get over or believe what I am seeing from gfs this eve, 41 degrees widely on Tuesday, Wednesday is hotting up now too, feel sorry for people in London this is going to be unbearable for you, I live on the south coast today has been 25 so we get some escape
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models are reminding me of 2003 when records were broken but even hotter -
I take it the met office and bbc are not following the gfs, for example for the region metoffice give a high of 36 tomorrow, gfs shows 39, and 40 on Tuesday, bbc show hottest day Monday and not as Tuesday, 2nd point i live on the coast which met office and bbc shows 30/31 following gfs this still looks incorrect, I will be very interested to see how this pans out here on the coast
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs has been consistent on last few runs for temps around 40 on Monday and Tuesday, it is looking like Tuesday will be the hotter of the 2 days, plume 3 is on the way next week onwards and looks like mid 30s for days interesting to see how this develops in next few days