clark3r
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs has loads more warmth, lots more beach weather, high 20s next weekend, then bank holiday weekend we may hit 30 again long way off but summer continues maybe a drop of rain next few days, maybe some thunderstorms for storm lovers, back down to low 20s for a couple of days keeps everyone happy -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Have to admit rainfall is looking minimal in south east in the outlook, many places could stay dry, hints of another heatwave on the gfs FI -
24.5 at 10.30 at night sitting in garden having a beer its about 23.8 now at 23.15 lovely sitting outside with a beer, but god knows how hot it is going to be in the bedroom, this summer for me since I’ve been alive has got to go as one of the best, 2003 was about in parr, but we have still got a few weeks left and i am confident heat will return before summer is out
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think a lot of pleasant summer weather on offer after this heatwave, I would prob give it a high chance of another heatwave before mid September but not as hot as what we have seen -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Monday is still looking hot for most of the south east 30 to 32, still very warm Tuesday 28 but back down to average by Wednesday -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Have to disagree with you, there is not cross model agreement for a breakdown late Sunday it is very uncertain at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Possible new trend this morning, temps stay in the 30s up to Thursday next week, Friday still high 20s, ECM showed this last night. More runs needed -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs max starting from wednesday 32, 34,35,36,35,31 + once again some very warm uncomfortable nights, another 2 day plume for south east England the following weekend making this a summer to remember -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Isn’t the raw temp on the ecm norm 2/3 degrees out? Meaning 36 over the weekend is quite possible -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The gfs has been quite persistent in keeping the heat until Monday, and mid 30s in the south at the weekend, wonder if the ECM will side with gfs this eve, wonder if ukm will extend the heat tomorrow, or vise verser the ecm follows ukm tonight and gfs follows suit tomorrow. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It looks confident up to Saturday it will be hot even very hot, Sunday still looks very hot on gfs even Monday, but would like to see how runs go later to confirm Sunday, both bbc and meto are currently showing more cloudy slightly less hot Sunday so let’s see who’s right in next couple of days -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I don’t call this a fairly swift breakdown to the heat, it already starts today and on gfs lasts until end of Monday, even after that it remains warm to very warm, 6/7 day heatwave that is not a swift breakdown and is not set in stone yet but is very unusual for uk. -
Why no weather heatwave alert for this up coming heat wave? From midweek it looks to hit above 32 until at least Sunday/Monday, it’s not until the early hours where temps may drop to the high teens so if we are lucky. Would think a warning will go out today or tomorrow at the latest, then it will be media hype
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Personal feeling is that there maybe some cracking storms come September/October when the cooler air clashes with the heat from the continent -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So very hot gfs this morning, at least 3 days mid 30s possibly 37 Saturday, heat breaks down early Tuesday with quite a dramatic plunge in temps the in FI the heat is back for the following weekend next weekend mid 30s perfect for a trip to the beach, will be packed -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
BBC and Met apps updated temps for London for 35 Friday and Saturday they are following ECM -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Got a feeling the 06z or 12z is going to be even hotter than this mornings run!!!!! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs has 8 days over 30c from Tuesday