clark3r
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs has 39/40 Monday, and widely 40/41 Tuesday, massive drop in temp for Wednesday, as for ICON I would not trust -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tight isobar, I give praise to you and your posts, you have called this ages ago, great analysis of models from you -
Work places should be warned so they can make arrangements for employees, surely they will not be expecting people to work normal hours, unless there is air con which my office and house do not have, it is unbearable in the office even when it reaches 28 lol
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs also shows a 20c drop on some parts on Wednesday, and back up to 31 by next Sunday, will be interesting to see if we develop another plume after this heatwave, if right conditions could it be just as hot with a extremely hot Spain -
Unbelievable if this happens how the hell are we going to cope with out air conditioning
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the gfs has now been fixed so you no longer have to add the couple of degrees as it is now quite accurate -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
BBC have Heathrow down for 39 on Tuesday now, met office 38, confidence for record breaking heat increases, still time for changes though, but big increase increases in chance since yesterday -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don’t think many of us will be able to work if this comes in to friction, if no cloud surely 40 will be breached -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We still have time for small tweaks to get the first ever 40 in the uk this heat is looking exceptional -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are we going to continue to see the delaying trend of the plume tonight? Will be interesting to see what happens -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Morning gfs runs show very hot Monday and Tuesday then staying very warm hot for the rest of the week -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So far this evening runs will make it unbearable in the south east from Sunday through to Tuesday, 35 Sunday, 40 Monday and 38 Tuesday, and don’t forget exceptional night time warmth too, interesting few days ahead and no wonder the met office put up their warning today -
Competition: How hot is it going to be?
clark3r replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Thanks 39.7 London Heathrow Monday 18th July 2022 -
Competition: How hot is it going to be?
clark3r replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
42.3 London Heathrow Tuesday 19 July 2022 -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have to agree with you, and good news about another potential plume FI -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don’t know if the gfs is having a wobble But Sunday now shows 33 and Monday 36 getting cooler with each run, 36 is still very hot of course but will need to see what other models are showing but the trend is not as good but could be upgrades of course in the next few runs -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Could this be rivalling 76/77 but hotter only time will tell, let’s see what ECM has to say tonight -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs is being pretty consistent with exteme heat, each run will vary, ukmo now joins in growing confidence that records will be broken 40 degrees charts will be back tomorrow -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If gfs still showing this in a couple of days I think the meto will need to issue weather warnings for a danger to life this is exceptional and in uk will be very uncomfortable -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another thing to mention if these runs were to materialise, I don’t think many people will be sleeping on Sunday/ Monday night as our homes are not designed for this heat, it is normally unbearable at night when it hits 32 in the day, so imagine 40+ -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Speechless with todays charts -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Extreme runs today, fully expecting downgrades in the next few days to the 40+ but surely we may be in for something special, if these continue in next few days there will be growing confidence -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
clark3r replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Arpege goes for 36 on Tuesday