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Everything posted by SilverWolf
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Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
SilverWolf replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just heard a distant rumble, sounds a fair few miles away from me -
Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
SilverWolf replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Not heard anything here… Edit: faint rumble in the distance -
Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
SilverWolf replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Chucking it down in Stroud… some poor person has left a sunroof partly open in their car, but I’ve no idea who’s it is! -
Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023
SilverWolf replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Hi, question for the far more knowledgable than me…. Where I am looks like some heavy showers in bound in the next hour or so (not storms at present). If these come through quickly and the sun comes after , what affect may this have on potential storms later? Would wet ground followed by heat/sun increase the chances? -
Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards
SilverWolf replied to Cambrian's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Saturated soil is a mainly a problem if it’s mainly clay over rock/brash, as it can literally slide, but I would say at the moment soil isn’t particularly saturated, especially compared to end winter 19/20. The worst soil for wind for trees in leaf or not is very dry soil, as tree roots loose their ‘grip’. -
I agree with that. I remember snow in April in the early 80’s in Gloucestershire a few times. But that ‘normal’ really ended in the mid 80’s. There’s been far more snowless winters since then, let alone March. But I think people are comparing this March to 2018 only, which was exceptional and rare regardless of the decade..
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As someone who lives in the south, I saw falling snow on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The garden I was working in on Friday had 2 inches of snow on it until lunchtime. Sure, it wasn’t sub zero all week, and I wasn’t snowed in, but this hasn’t been a ‘normal’ March here. Not 2018 either, of course, but not normal for the last 30 years. Just an observation from someone who’s also worked outside for the last 15 years.
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I would say def worth discussion - especially given the lack of named storms this winter! But I can’t do the technical stuff, so over to others for that…
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
SilverWolf replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That sounds like a great idea… can a normal model discussion run as well? Maybe a bit more restrictive what’s posted on that, with both running at the same time? -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
SilverWolf replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
^ Maybe even later tonight for the south? Or just wishful thinking…showing some sleet/snow over higher ground of Devon at the moment. -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
SilverWolf replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Kind of like today… a few days back is was looking at being mild right up through England today after snow event.. was snowing here in Glos at 8am, and was on the ground where I was working til 12 o’clock.. The little system that came out of Ireland earlier today has only just clipped Cornwall and kept it cold. All up for grabs I reckon! -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
SilverWolf replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s an interesting picture where it’s at… precip showing sleet/snow a long way north, but also a long way south west too.. -
My extremely rose tinted look at much later tonight and early (perhaps with a dose of IMBY). The low pressure is further south than predicted right now. It’s showing sleet/snow (admittedly high ground) in SW Ireland, and as the crow flies about 50 miles NW of me currently. Every time we get a heavy shower here the temp drops rapidly (it’s all rain atm), and does recover a bit after - beet scientific observation from ‘stepping outside’. IF the low sinks south east as it passes much later tonight, temp will prob drop sharply and quickly. Could be snow, at least over high ground, but not exclusively. My realistic take is that the temp drop will happen, but there may not be much precip left in the system - so perhaps a dusting over higher ground first thing tomorrow. See what occurs!
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
SilverWolf replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just looked at the radar - very different to that BBC graphic! The precip is a bit fragmented, but it shows sleet and snow in SW Ireland currently (sure, prob high ground..). Also snow in mid Wales.