SilverWolf

^ ^ Great explanations for my question, thanks. Kinda explains why it’s so relatively quiet on here too! As much as I understand what’s been said, it’s still kinda disappointing (so far). Maybe it’s just a badly recalled memory from my childhood 35 years ago, but it did seem like every spell like this went proper bang toward the end,, especially with humidity like this… maybe it still will! Edit: In that memory, perhaps half of those events were not even hinted at on the (BBC) weather back in the 80’s… it’s amazing the advances in prediction since then, and the opportunity to explore potentials on this site. I’m even more fascinated and engaged with weather than I was as a kid… but! I do sometimes miss that joy of waking up to a crazy storm in the middle of the night, or 8 inches of snow in the morning that was ‘unlikely’, or I simply missed the tv weather forecast… But now have the V4 Radar! Mixed blessings…

Could you explain what trigger is needed? I’ve heard this loads before, but would like it explained… is it a cooler air mass coming in or something different? TIA

Is frustrating… right now, where I am, (from what I’ve learnt on here) CAPE is good, lifted index is good, heat is high, humidity high etc.. what is needed that is missing?

Looking at the various maps posted today, plus the Met Office warning, seems that storms could happen pretty much anywhere in South/Central England and more northern Wales tomorrow… as others have said I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some dramatic storms similar to Northern Ireland yesterday, but I’d only trust the radar through the day tomorrow as to where they will be… I also think some may pop up outside the warning area (which may well expand or move by morning). Have to say not felt humidity like this for some years - the last time I did has the most amazing lightning storm I’ve ever seen, but that was imported from France.. See what occurs!

Wow what a week! Spent Mon/Tues hedgecutting all day, Weds cutting down a meadow until it was nearly dark, and the rest of the week strimming and lawn mowing. I have to say the heat this week has been unbearable compared to all 3 heatwaves last year. Had to stop at lunchtime today, the humidity today is a killer, actually felt unsafe to carry on… If I don’t get at least an hour of decent thunder/lightning between now and Tuesday I’ll be mortified… it’s the most primed it’s felt for years. Going to drink yet another couple of pints of water - I am definitely having a bloody beer this evening.. Stay cool everyone!

On the MOD thread, it was posted that 30c was reached at Staverton Airport - not surprised! Had a tough one hedgecutting all day in a south facing garden in Tetbury today, with little shade. Was not expecting it to be this hot today… much more reminiscent of last summer! Glad the UV has dropped.

Can well believe that! Been hedgecutting all day in Tetbury, not that far from Staverton as the crow flies, and it was the hottest day I’ve worked since late June by a long way.. not scientific, but the models showing highest temps today and for a few days after at least may well be spot on. I was not expecting to be quite as hot as it was today having read this thread and seen some forecasts the last few days…

Camping near Woolacombe - lovely day today! Feeling v lucky looking at the radar…

Maybe so, but I had 6 inches of snow in my garden last December for over a week, after 3 bouts of very hot weather in the summer….who knows what’s next for us in 6 months time.

Brilliant thank you… I did ask in the last proper stormy spell, but posts were coming thick and fast, and it got buried! Great explanation.

Hi, can someone briefly explain the ‘numbers’ on the V4 radar for Convective Inhibition (currently -40 where I am) and Lifted Index (currently 1). And what the best combination is for storms forming? Thanks… CAPE is creeping up, and we’ve had full sun for an hour or so.

Sure I’ve told this story somewhere here before..Best ‘unexpected’ storm (pre internet!) was in Glastonbury, think it was late summer ‘99. Was at the top of Glastonbury Tor watching the sun go down, with perhaps a dozen other people there I didn’t know. A storm broke out towards Bridgwater and rushed over towards the Tor very quickly. Frequent forked lightening, and loud thunder. Within minutes it was all around the hill, lightning was almost blinding, and was going all directions - up/down/sideways. Saw lots of different colours - purple, white, blue and I’m sure one was green, but at its most intense it was hard to differentiate colour. At one point it felt like there was no air when lightning flash and thunder were instantaneous - thunder was so violent it shook my rib cage several times. Some of the people up there were terrified, and we’re about to leave, but I saw a couple of lightning strikes further down the footpath down, and said they may be better off where we were! One woman who was coping better was laughing hysterically and running around. One of the most amazing experiences of my life, it genuinely felt dangerous for probably 15 mins, but truth is I didn’t care! Was epic rain towards the end, but it was a very hot day and was actually welcomed. Whole thing lasted maybe 45 mins. After the walk home, didn’t sleep until early morning after that, and my memory of a lot of that night is very clear nearly 25 years later. Words don’t do it justice.

2007 springs to mind… the flooding in Gloucestershire was so bad that Gloucester city was close to having its power cut as a major electrical substation nearly went underwater. As someone who works outside, even the last 4 weeks haven’t been as bad of a handful of summers in the last 15 years. Maybe that’s just a ‘local’ thing for me…

My daughter did her second induction day at Deer Park yesterday… the drive from Stroud to Cirencester at 3pm was nasty! Yeah not had a full day like that since about the middle of March round here. Had a couple of brief thunderstorms in Stroud today, half a dozen loud booms in both, plus very heavy rain. Looks like possibility of a couple more next few hours, or at least heavy showers, especially now the sun has broken through again. Enjoying the weather today!

How did you come to that conclusion?

Spot who’s never done hard physical work 5 days a week in a heatwave!

Absolutely agree, and I like all sorts of extreme weather… I remember starting a hedge reduction one morning last summer, in a garden with no shade, and it was 36c by 10.30! That was a brutal day, and I’d rather not do that again…

Sorry to hear that! It’s early summer though, plenty of time…

Interesting this last week or so… sure there have been disappointments (myself included today, and 2 days last weekend!), but countywide generally there have been a good moment of storms, some of which locally have been pretty potent… not bad for halfway through June! Bit curious last time we had a run like this, for this long, at this time of year… I remember a late May early June a little bit similar, maybe a little over 15 years ago. But the storms were very short in nature, brief showers really. But booming thunder, good lightning, hail and rainbows! Maybe someone remembers..

No worries, and I get it! For my own sanity I try to ignore risks under 60% (with some radar viewing here and there). If they’re at 60% I do my own head in looking too much and usually end up disappointed. But even 60% isn’t really that high realistically. I used to be involved in risk assessment in support work years ago. I never personally worried about a ‘risk’ that high of random violence! I should remember that in these scenarios….

Hey man, I wasn’t accusing you of ‘toy throwing’ just to be clear… just giving another perspective! I hope you get a cracker of storm in the near future… sometimes I think the ‘magic’ of a storm happening has been diminished somewhat because of all the info we have at hand. That said the best lightning storm I’ve witnessed (2020? ) which happened around midnight, I did stay up for because of the radar! I may have missed most of it otherwise.

To be fair to the forecast (and storms are nearly as hard to forecast as snow) I was in a 60% chance of a storm, poss severe today. I’m having a mild one atm with some thunder. Last Monday was the same forecast. Had severe rain/hail with flash floods, roads had bad problems in the aftermath, many houses were flooded - beforehand there was constant thunder for 30 mins. My daughter witnessed a house being struck by lightning and catching fire (everyone was safe). There are decent storms around (and yeah I guess I’d like those). I’ve seen a picture on this thread showing some pretty bad flooding in a garden, and it’s been mentioned elsewhere as well. So I reckon the ‘risk’ for a large area of England/wales was spot on personally, if I take my own disappointment for today out of the equation… Current radar with lightning.

@MrNooo This is building but barely moving… Stroud postcode. See what happens!

Reason I thought this, had 40 mins of continuous thunder last Monday, with hardly any visible lightning. Very little on radar, but the sky was clearly very electrified.

You’re not wrong! Felt primed all day, feels no different now..seen a couple dozen drops of rain!