kumquat

Looking picturesque on the sat images. Image: Sat24.com

I saw snow lying on the grass last night and I saw it falling through the cold air. That's no mean feat for the SW. Let's pluck up the courage and see this through until winter's end. A beast of cold air to our North @144 ECM As the vortex migrates so we will get another chance.

looks like a trough formed in a line between Liverpool and Reading. Snapshot time: 04:15

absolutely chucking down with snow!! radar snapshot: temp: 1.3C DP: -0.5C

Interesting warm anomaly over G but it's small, dense, and tightly packed. All surrounding areas can swamp it by orders of magnitude, but we all know they won't.

CC but doesn't that show us a bit too far out of the pattern? Weakish low height anomalies in the middle Med puts us pretty much where we are now. I'd like more of a smiley mouth and a flat nose.

Well you're in Barnsley so a better chance than a lot of us. Probably tonight you'll get 0.125cm Edit: massive blob in North Sea = 1cm by m0rn

I sympathise. There's just no precip about for us in the west. Also, I bet your ground temps (progged 0 - 1) are being modified by a degree or 2 by the urban heat effect.

Not seeing much noticeable change in the moon tonight. It is shrouded in fast-moving clouds, though... and beautiful. Maybe some flutters tomoz early morn if that stuff NE of The Wash makes it......

Not convinced by the Jetstream pushing across us so forcefully 120 – 192. Nor am I buying the stagnancy of the Greeny surface High from T60+ I feel Low heights will vacate that area towards Siberia much more quickly than progged. It’s like a log-jam area that the models cannot get a handle on yet.

All three big guns looking to build heights NW at 144. Hope we will see this trend develop over next couple of days: UKMO ECM GFS I'm still holding out for some late Feb snow.

Not been able to view the models in any detail over the last couple of days because I've been enjoying myself too much at Center Parcs (longleat) serious windchill when Friday's little low ripped through. I was a little concerned at a quick flick-through yesterday that things were getting downgraded but a good sift through the 3 big guns and their ensembles (where available) have been a nice read this evening. Very optimistic still for a cold turn post Wednesday next week. UKMO @ 6 Days ECM @ 6 Days GFS (18z) @ 6 days - same timeframe - didn't see the 12z Encouraging to see the Scandi High rebuilding (possible retrogression to GH) even if it does appear to sink a little after its first incarnation. GFS 18z - 10 Days I've skimmed many a comment about cold and dry and the nuances between SE and Easterly airflow but HEY! This is so much better than the usual Zonal. We have a real chance here over the next few weeks of seeing something special, I'm reminded of Steve Murr's 3 cycles. Tonight's runs show we are in the game for all of them. We might fail the first hurdle but we're in for the next and the next. It's a good place to be for the snow-starved UK.

Thing is it puts it 9 days into the future. As many who watch this thread will attest to, there's nothing realistic out there.

You would hope so Crewe but (and I hate invoking it) Occam's razor says it will pass as it has in the past.

I think we're all in agreement (and so are the models) that we'll be sat in a col (anywhere from 96 - 144, depending on which model output you look at) It's a crossroads moment, literally. We'll go cold easterly (pretty nailed on, but snowy or long-lasted ? who knows) We'd all like there to be shorter term synoptics or upgrades that bring us the white nectar. (could definitely still happen. Even today there was possibility of sleety snow on the wraparound of the tight low that whipped through) In Center Parks Longleat so felt the chafing cold of that one with wet skin out of the warm water.) But more likely we're looking at a quick cold shot and further possibilities down the line. If any part of the UK gets a smashing snow event into next Thursday and the few days beyond, I'll be chuffed. Still the models put -10 and below 850s If they don't - then still don't despair. It could still be coming.

His profile says he was on the site 5 hours ago, so hopefully nothing amiss. (Possibly the thought of impending cold has kept him away? )

See you in 10 days

Armageddon from the North?

Interesting that the models think it's all East to West around Valentine's Day. I love you all.

18z takes WAA cross-polar flow. Less Scandi blocking and more Svalbard High. Could be some fun and games. We are all dreaming, after all.

One heck of a block looking to dominate to the East. The outcome for us could be anything. Wet, windy and mild. Cold, dry. Snowy. Who knows?

According to Wikipedia (so make of that as you will): "The FIM is being developed as a candidate to eventually supplant the Global Forecast System" https://fim.noaa.gov/

Hey Zephyr Had a great view of Jupiter the other night with my Celestron SE4. Could make out coloured bands and the moons were bright. That was just using the 25mm Plossl eyepiece. Hope to get some more magnification for it soon. Happy stargazing! p.s I don't think the moon rises for us now until about 3am pps what is your 130p? A Skywatcher Dobsonian?

So nice to see the sun here for a couple of days and the last 2 nights have been awesome for astronomy. I need a dew shield for my scope! Freezing cold and sunny is fantastic in my book. Noticed the pond where I work is looking really low for this time of year. I've got a feeling something might be around the corner in terms of the white stuff over the next week. If you notice the "other" side of the NH is getting zonal. We are in the buckling belt. The thing is, it could go many ways. But we are still in the game.