johnholmes

Where did I make that suggestion please Mucka? I have posted with a link for folk to look at a series of charts and made a comment from my point of view not posting that there has been, I quote you above?

how about IF it will allow me to show Extra 850 mb Temperatures and isobars (the white lines) folk make up their own minds? I hope this can be allowed please Paul/team, just this once. It might help visitors/new folk see what the latest GFS is suggesting? My own view is that no sooner does it bring in lower 850 temperatures than the next surface system swings in with less cold air. Through most of its run it shows the isobars are from west to south west, rarely north west, so snow prospects away from hills and the far north look slight to me. Probably non existent for any lasting/lying variety, although the Scottish ski resorts should do quite well. no not allowed to run it but try the free version of a similar thing. link below http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Been unable to watch the model drama very well with no web connection for 48 hours. I would be very grateful if one of you bright chappies/chappesses could give me a BRIEF outline of where we are. Reading some comments above it might well help some of our newcomers and visitors as well. Concentrating on the next 120-144 hours really. I can do my own playing beyond that now I can see the anomaly charts, which do look interesting with heights across northern latitudes and troughs south of this going well into Europe, especially with the version from ECMWF-GFS, be interesting to see if NOAA 6-10 trends more this way this evening.

You could be correct ba but it is interesting in the, getting on for 10 years now, I have used these anomaly charts it is only in the last 12 months that I have reservations in always taking NOAA over them in terms of what is being shown.

Rain at times in the early hours but dry by dawn with just enough cloud breaks to the SE to give an orange sunrise for a few minutes, overcast and dry at the moment; the low again in double figures at 12.3C, just ELEVEN C above the average!

Taking a look at how the anomaly charts have been trending over the last 3 days or so. ECMWF-GFS continues to be rather different from the NOAA outputs. They both have very slowly trended to where they are this morning, see link below. That is for the idea of the major trough edging east and extending into Europe. This has the effect of moving the ridge, which has been the focus of attention for several days, further north east. Contour heights have also been lowered over the 3 days to about 546DM in the far south of the UK on the products this morning. They are almost always 6DM or more lower than NOAA even when all 3 are pretty similar in their upper air pattern. Something they are not at the moment. Both EC and GFS are fairly similar further west into and across the North American continent. Indeed they appear pretty similar across the whole chart. The last evening NOAA output for 6-10 days (the equivalent of EC-GFS) did not show anything to copy what EC-GFS have trended to wards. The 8-14 did just about suggest some indication towards the idea, perhaps (?) of the trough beginning to look as if it might extend into Europe. Over the years I have generally sided with the NOAA output but several times in the past 12 months or so the EC-GFS outputs have led NOAA into a change in pattern. Will it be another one-too early to say but interesting even so I think? Links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Happy Christmas to everyone A dry cloudy start (upper cloud) with a low of 2.9C around 0800, started raining (slightly) a few minutes ago

As I posted earlier there is some indication on the EC 500mb anomaly chart of both it and GFS (it was showing this 24 hours ago) of indicating something different; a slight signal and it needs continuing with NOAA on the same train, for it to be really believed. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

There are tentative signs in the anomaly charts, certainly not consistently with one another and nothing that one could post and say, there this is a good signal for a major pattern change. The betting might be on some kind of block developing to the north and more especially to the NE of the UK. Something that the synoptic models have suggested at times. IF this does develop into reality 6 days or more from now, then the effect would be to cause the surface lows to track more ESE rather than the climatological path of between Scotland and Iceland. Also their intensities would be less in general. Nothing to hang any coats on as yet, maybe a 30% probability of this development occurring as the models stand at the moment. links to anomaly charts below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&map=1&runpara= The MJO (GFS) is currently in 5 with a reasonable distance from the origin and is predicted to go to 6/7, fairly reasonable orbit. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml this corresponds as shown below to probable 500mb anomaly heights http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/DecENMJOphase7gt1500mb.gif Not exactly deep cold looking other than the one showing anomalies being +ve to the East suggesting a cold flow from somewhere NE-SE at the surface.

Cloudy, dry now after slight rain earlier in the night, a low of 10.1C, over 8C above the average!

Clear sky with a breeze, a low so far of 7.1C after rain in the early hours

Mild again and dry after rain in the early hours, the low was around 2130 last evening with 7.2C then rising and now on 13.6C

the actual definition of Shannon Entropy is given here, no idea just what the exact meteorological view is! For sure it is like a number of other formula/definitions=quite often wrongly used! https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Shannon_entropy

Will have to be something from 1947 or 1963 when I get a chance to scan things, pc playing up still but will get back

Sky clear and the lowest temperature for just over a week, 5.1C

And in the upper air world what is showing in the 1 to 2 week time frame? NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php ECMWF-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html Some indications showing in the last 2 days or so on all 3 of the slight ridging and +ve heights from Europe into northern Scandinavia. Not really a solid enough signal to me but at least some indication of a 'possible' alteration that 'might' help those of a cold disposition!

Dry and partly cloudy, another double figure low, 10.3C

A maximum of 16.1C the highest since I started recording data in January 1997, the highest at RAF Finningley 1942-1995 was 15.5C on 3 different years.

A maximum of 16.1C the highest since I started recording data in January 1997, the highest at RAF Finningley 1942-1995 was 15.5C on 3 different years.

Temperature is currently 15.3C from 12.4C at midnight, mild hardly describes these values for December, dry and cloudy

Cloudy but with a suggestion of the odd glimpse of blue sky, dry after rain overnight, visibility much much better than at any time yesterday, a low of 10.8C (just 3.8C above the average maximum for December), now on 13.2C

well well, thanks BW, I have said many times on this forum I learn something new, not every day, but over the year. But this is a new one on me.

We appear to have a major model divergence here John. Hi there, hope you are well, good to see you on here. Mind you folk would be expecting you to have waved a magic wand for them! Yes it is going to be interesting to see just what transpires. I only use the GFS output, stops me losing it with too many possibilities. What you show, how often have you seen that much difference?

As you say N, it will be interesting to see what evolves. Looking at the GFS one I use it shows 4 and suggests either into 5 in low orbit or disappearing into the zero area. link below Neither of which is of any comfort to cold lovers, or so it seems to me. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml