johnholmes

I wonder if anyone is interested in the here and now? An interesting few hours as the low over Eire tracks towards the N Sea. Just what will be the exact track-where will get the worst of the rain-which high ground will get snow-will it lie? All these and folk seem obsessed with day x-y-z. Nothing wrong with that but some lucky ones will see snow today over northern England. I think the track of the low, judging from the latest data I can get hold of, suggests it wil exit somewhere between Bridlington and Newcastle into the N Sea. Another 2-3 hours and that widish idea should be able to refine somewhat. As to the longer term, no matter which model you use, the end result will be the same, no major upper air pattern change for at least two weeks. So much of the same with perhaps a tendency to edge the overall temperature down a bit. As to a white Xmas well timing will be crucial for any short burst of Pm air to that. Not impossible for some, but, on current evidence, more likely the further north one lives and the higher up as well. anomaly charts below httphttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html for immediate watching a link to the weather chart for today http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0&lang=en&map=UK on my pc this morning it is a bit slow to load.

dry, cloudy and just starting to rain with a low of 3.5C, now on 4.9C

Not got time to look carefully at the whole set of GFS charts but I assume the upper air pattern is the governing factor so presumably that has little flow in it?

thanks for the link I will watch it later. So I do not yet know if he is talking upper air or surface features. The link I give shows as it almost always does that ECMWF consistently outscores GFS at days 5 and 6, and also out at day 10. Mind you neither is reliable at that time frame judging from the statistics I watched from Gibby over the 10 months January to October. This is why, however much some folk disagree, I use the anomaly charts after day 6 to give a more reliable idea of what the upper air pattern is likely to be. They do need careful use mind you. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

Why would it be wrong? The upper air pattern GFS predicts seems to support what it is doing. Of course that may be wrong but it fits the 12z output but how consistent is that with the 12z yesterday or say the ECMWF at the same period? I ask because I have not yet had time to do a comparison.

?? I never suggested otherwise and most of my post was discussing meteorology about the weekend?

I love this from our professionals for 2 days ahead and you lot are worryning about the run up to Christmas! This development is associated with a high degree of uncertainty, especially regarding the track and timing of the depression, and this alert will be kept under review. They are talking of the track the low MAY take Saturday this link shows where their current thinking is http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72 sure is an interesting time for model watching in the nearer time frames. One can only hope it stays south of mid Lancashire, several thousand folk will feel the same. It is hard to comprehend the awful situation so many of them will be in for many months to come. Looking at the 06Z GFS and they take it well north over the area that least needs it, so hopefully the idea from UK Met for further south turns out to be correct. Even by this time tomorrow I suspect there will still be uncertainty.

well what a change at 0700 the lowest was another double digit value at 10.8C, dry and cloudy. It started raining soon after and the temperature started to fall, still raining as I type and the temperature is now down to 8.2C; 1.4mm so far

Not often but you can get rain up to 2000m at times, this is a situation that rarely lasts for more than a few hours when it occurs, so the actual zero C level also needs to be looked at when checking model outputs.

just seen your post above Paul, will try that next time-thanks

hi Paul Just mentioned in the model thread an odd thing. I tried to reply to a post from Cloud 10 but it would not let me quote his latest, referring me back to an earlier post of his I had replied to? I got round it by deleting the quote in the reply area then making my post? cheers John

trying to reply to Cloud 10 but a post I replied to hours ago keeps cropping up! Anyway GFS has been pretty consistent since the 12Z run on Monday for the 00 and 12z runs since and the 06Z also this morning for the pattern to expect on Saturday. The UK Met Fax chart also looks pretty similar.

If there had been a fhon effect that could certainly strip a lot of snow in a short time. But no idea if that is what happened.

lovely shot there

bring back the pre model era, listening with hope and anticipation every day to the Radio 4 1255 or 1755 regional forecast!

The coldest night since 1 December with a low of 2.8C, not much cloud, patchy CuSc Ac and Ci, total about 2/8

But the models know exactly what all the current data is, they then 'simply' use the thermodynamic laws with complex mathematics to work out what the various parameters will be in 1 hour or x100 hours.

does this give the answer re dates etc? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

A Max today of 13.1C the 10th consecutive day in double figures, the overall Max for December is 7.0C

one way of checking how consistent any model is in the far reaches of its run, F1 as it is termed as for you to check each run each day for the same time of issue and see if it shows a similar pattern for the same day say initially at 10 or 12 days ahead. Then see how it compares as you count down the days. Obviously by the time, usually (!), we get to T+48 all the models at any time of issue will be converging on a similar solution, usually (!). It will work at long time scales better than checking each run against the last AT LONG TIME intervals NOT below about 120-144 hours though. Give it a try if you have not before, save each run and compare, this site allows you to do it easily for the current and last run, but not I don't think for anything further back. Try this web site in that case http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&VAR=prec

Grief I make a post based on 500mb anomaly charts and all hell breaks loose. For those not used to my posts in the 6-15 day time frame they give a good indication of MAJOR changes or NO MAJOR change. The do NOT and never have, in my use of them, given any detail in what 500mb charts or surface charts may shows within that 6-15 day time frame in detail, note the word detail. It is rare, less than 30-35% when they show no major change, be that a major difference to current charts or a marked change, that they are wrong. This post perhaps sums up better than I have about them John gave a fair summary of what the anomaly charts show but others have misinterpreted this. It is frustrating because time and again it has been said what anomaly charts are good for and what they are not so good for. They are good for giving an overall indication of the likelihood of a blocking pattern setting up but poor for picking out details within the longwave pattern - especially in a situation as complex as this where there is wide divergence between ensembles and often the Op and control runs are at odds at anything beyond day 5-7. I continue to post that there is little probability of anything more than 24-48 hours of deep cold air penetrating into all parts, into northern most areas more likely than southern areas. I could be wrong, for the majority seeking cold AND snow wherever they live, I hope I am. If I am I will as I always do be on here to hold my hands up and say I was wrong. I doubt I will be far out in the next 2 weeks. Beyond that is not my province to even speculate. I leave that to others. So long as ALL of us feel confident in putting our views in print, preferably with charts to back this up, that others do not mis read or knock the posts then this forum gives everyone the chance to air those views. Simply respect every poster unless they are obviously trying a wind up. If you think they are don't react just press the report button and tell the team who will deal with it. Happy viewing everyone.

Cloudy here with 7/8 CuSc, dry mostly but the odd brief light passing shower. A low of 10.7C so another mild one. My mean for the first 5 days is 10.4C the 19 year average is 4.8C

Sadly for those looking for the elusive cold spell it remains just that, elusive. Nothing in the 6-15 day outputs from whatever source show any consistent indication of the major change needed to give a cold spell. The anomaly charts show the major pattern is a marked trough somewhere west even SW at times of the UK with no indication that this is going to change markedly. What may be of some comfort to those so badly affected by high rainfall totals is that the 500mb flow is showing signs of decreasing. This should have the effect of decreasing the number of deep surface features and the rainfall totals over the 6-15 day period. It terms of any cold then behind each surface feature as the surface and upper flow switches to a more west to NW for a short period then colder air briefly more especially for the northern half. No signal at all so far of any major cold burst. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Fred is it really too much trouble to post a link if you do not want to post a chart to illustrate your point? I think that would satisfy the great majority on here and be helpful for those new to model watching. Not asking much am I?

I truly wonder which part of Aberdeen you live Richard, official figure for Aberdeen today=5h and for 6th, certainly nil for 1, 3 , 4 and 5th Odd so much difference! vile, repulsive are odd words for what is after all just the weather. If you lived in the places so badly affected by flood water I could understand it but to describe it for no sun, and a bit of drizzle. touch OTT perhaps?