johnholmes

Quite a change on the ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly charts this morning and not like the NOAA outputs last evening either. Too early to be confident for cold lovers but they certainly show what they want, see link below. These two, over the past couple of years have on a few occasions been the first to show a pattern change that turned out to be correct. However I would urge caution until they show continuity over at least 2-3 days and that the NOAA outputs also show similar.Nothing on the GFS MJO output suggests that the 500mb pattern is anything other than a short affair IF at all yet. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html the output from NAEFS also supports the above charts http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&map=1&runpara= We will all know by this time next week if the above chart predictions were correct!

Dry but cloudy, a few patches of Sc but much of it is upper layers, a low of 5.3C

10.0C at 1430 now 5.9C after several showers blown through; Td=3.9C, some change over the past couple of days with a max of 18.8C on Tuesday!

re this There is at least at this time however no indicated support for any sustained collapse of the strong Nino till at least later in the winter The latest official update link is below http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

Very little cloud after slight rain overnight, a low so far of 6.9C with Td 2.9C. That is the lowest value of Td in a very long time.

Dry, no cloud, a low of 6.9C

blimey Paul I doubt any of us will READ that thoroughly. I confess to a quick skim and arrive at your conclusions, re marginally useful for Europe for temperatures.

Fairly cloudy and rather breezy with a low of 13.2C so far

Well today is my highest November max since I started 01/01/1997 at 18.8C and the highest in the RAF Finningley data 1943-1995 was 18.5C on 4/11/71, so perhaps the highest in many decades for this area unless someone in this area has a higher max today. Obviously a possibility. Not sure about the minimum value as not had chance to check yet.

Well today is my highest November max since I started 01/01/1997 at 18.8C and the highest in the RAF Finningley data 1943-1995 was 18.5C on 4/11/71, so perhaps the highest in many decades for this area unless someone in this area has a higher max today. Obviously a possibility. Not sure about the minimum value as not had chance to check yet.

18.7C here just now, must look and see what my record is for November, more like late April or even some summer days, breezy but lots of warm sunshine

To me it seems the overall pattern for a couple of weeks is an unsettled westerly over the Atlantic and into Europe. So a mix of Tm and Pm air for most with the Pm air most noticeable and most frequent for more northern parts. If you like a nw-n/se-s split. Possibly some pretty deep lows passing between Iceland and Scotland at times so windy as well in association with them.

dry, breezy with areas of Sc cloud and a ridiculous temperature for this time in November, currently 15.8C and the 'low' is 15.8C! This is almost 3C above the average Min for the summer months!

before too many show 'like' for this post it is NOT anywhere a done deal yet, and I only suggested hours NOT days IF it does happen, and not a major pattern change!

Obviously the weather has not yet read that the month has changed,14.4C max which is about what is supposed to be the afternoon value a month ago. It sure will be a shock to plants and ourselves when we do get a bit below normal!

There are differences between the ECMWF-GFS upper pattern and that of NOAA. This in the ne Canada/Greenland area and further north. It is unclear just yet which pattern will be nearer the mark. It is not often that NOAA is wrong in these pattern changes but we have to wait and see. links below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Wonderful orange sunrise through areas of Sc, dry and a low of 6.5C

don't apologise Paddy, we all have to learn and folk on here will be willing to help you. start with the most simple and gradually work up. Both with observing data and learning how to read the models. Try the Net Wx Guides for help with the models but don't leave. It's a fascinating hobby and almost all on here are 'weather nuts' regards John

The anomaly charts still show a generally westerly 500mb flow out to day 14/15 and perhaps beyond. The 'kink' that ECMWF-GFS showed in the flow yesterday has gone this morning. NOAA has so far not suggested that option. The only possible glimpse of this is the smallish +ve heights shown NE Canada-western Greenland. Nothing substantial enough to really excite any cold watcher. links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php for slightly further ahead the MJO (GFS version) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml actual and predict show nothing more than 1-3. link to probable 500mb pattern for November for those below http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

fairly cloudy, mostly high level Sc and a low of 5.9C

Clearing up nicely with patchy Sc and Ci, very mild at 17.6C and dewpoint still over 14C; more like a warmish rather muggy September day.

Rain started around 0500 moderate/heavy around 0750-0800 (34.6 mm/hr), total so far=9.8 mm, a low before the rain of 9.4C now on 15.3C and dewpoint on 14.5C, each up around 5C since the rain started

I take your point MPG but if we look at the statistics for 10 days, using the data seen when Gibby posts, or available off the NOAA site, then GFS and for that matter ECMWF are little better than a 1 in 3 to 4 chance of being correct. UK Met have a great deal we don’t see as you rightly comment but the input from Ian’s TV discussions with the senior man at Exeter do help throw some light on why they at times make subtle changes to their 6-15 or 16-30 day outlooks. Today is an example, yesterday no mention of any change today, link below http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast But the bit which may interest those wanting cold is ‘..though tending to turn somewhat colder in the north later.’ All we have is the anomaly charts from various sources and looking at what the MJO, AO and NAO suggest. Within some bounds I find this input can be helpful to make me widen my checking of the data we have available to try and arrive at my own balanced view of how things may develop.

cloudy but dry, mild with the low on 12.6C so far

not really what he said, 'less mild, drier, was what I heard, no mention of a northerly unless I missed that? the link see what you believe John Hammond said http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34741548