johnholmes

9.8C here and the cloud has gone with almost completely blue skies, but I have no idea how long this may last!

many thanks for that info Nick, have you any idea what is the problem with the site I use?

does anyone have an alternative site for the ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly charts please, the one I normally use seems not be sending any out?

dry and mostly cloudy no rain overnight, a low just after midnight of 5.4C, same as previous night, now 6.6C

not totally supported by NOAA or EC-GFS anomaly charts Gibby, nor really from Met 6-15 day outlooks, link below to that http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast links to the anomaly charts are in my earlier post if anyone wishes to check this=post 687

Not sure which anomaly charts you refer to above Fred. Certainly not the ones I use. Indeed their time scale is, at most, 15 days with NOAA. Not sure what any others show as I have never done as much checking on them as I did a few years ago with NOAA along with EC-GFS?

I'll try again after nearly 10 minutes setting up a post, it disappeared as I tried to type a link ECMWF! back in a bit Trying again Using the 3 anomaly sets of charts I use then they do not suugest any lasting deep cold nor do they suggest a very mild long spell of weather. With a broadly westerly flow at 500mb, switching between about 300 and 250 degrees then occasional Pm and Tm air seems the weather pattern for about 2 weeks or so. Nor does the MJO (GFS version) suggest anything might change with orbits ending almost at the origin. Synoptic charts, naturally enough, given what is suggested above are and will continue to switch from cold looking to mild looking. What they do show is that surface features will move quickly across the Atlantic bringing their switches from Pm to Tm air, pretty much on a NW-N/SW-S split. Hills of Scotland being the most likely to have snow cover at times. If one looks at the overall pattern predicted on the UK Met Fax charts it gives as good an idea as we are likely to get from free data as to what to expect. Links, trying again ECMWF-GFS, note not able to get the 00z version I usually input so this is the 12z from last night http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php MJO (GFS version) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml NAEFS http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara= http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm and of course the various synoptic model outputs for comparison from the post above by Fergie from Met Office briefings it seems they suggest much as I've posted and indeed they seem to have nothing beyond 2 weeks to mark any major change. This should not be surprising given the overall upper pattern and ENSO outputs along with their monthly charts they issue which are along similar lines. So to those wanting sub zero values for days on end and deep snow=sorry, not yet on the menu sheet.

Cloudy but dry, no rainfall measured since late last evening, cloud=StSc complete cover, the low at midnight was 5.4C now on 7.2C

dry and mostly cloudy after an air frost earlier, a low of -0.6C, currently 0.9C with white frost on some roofs and cars

I suspect that is because the anomaly charts are mean charts and given what they are showing, the average of a touch north of west in the 6-15 day period, then there will be occasions when Tm air comes in just as behind major surface lows a more Am type airflow. What the indication is, to me, there will be no major cold spell, say more than 2-3 days nor any marked mild spell again more than 48 hours. I may be wrong of course! The overall average to me looks like about average temperatures to a touch below normal over the 15 day period.

yes a daily job clearing the points on all sections of the Jungfrau area rail network. You need to look out for the two snow blowing beasts they kleep in the sheds at Kleinne. 15cm on the Lauberhorn area and 10cm in the village this morning. With the upper flow proedicted to be a westerly turning NW'ly at times at least there should be no major thaw above about 5000ft for most of the Alps. 53 days to the start of the Lauberhorn races and the finish for all 3 disciplines looks almost complete. Shame there is no web cam of the 'mini village' they build below the Hunchkpopf jump. some may like to turn on the video on the right hand side of the link below, Swiss advert but some good ski shots and something I have never seen before (IF it is real) is the sight of the display team flying with the Swiss National through the Jungfrau region! http://www.lauberhorn.ch/en/Livecam

just me being officious mate-sorry, comes from 38 years of being in the game!

sorry to be pedantic PM, a lwo of -2.1C=air frost and ground frost?

The anomaly charts suggest the next 10 days or so will see predominantly Pm type air with only very brief incursions of Tm air. It is possible that Scotland will stay in Pm type air through that period. It could also be very windy at times with quite deep lows.

Sorry PW the anomaly charts I use, ECMWF-GFS and NOAA did predict a week ahead this cold spell. I can if you and others wish make up a pdf (if I can remember how to do it) and show the succession of charts that caused me to post around that time showing the flow changing to north of west with lowering heights occurring indicating a colder spell was very likely. I never attempt to predict more than about 2 weeks or so ahead as NOA charts only go out to 15 days. Rather than clutter up the thread I am happy to chat via pm or posting with a pdf allows folk to not have to read it. Just drop a line in here or pm me please. John

Quite a cold snap if my Min this morning is anything to go by, at -3.3C it is lower than all this year since 1 night in January at -3.4C and lower than any in 2014. What a change from last Sunday with a 'low' of 14.2C!

Clouded over with sheet of Sc after an air frost that lasted from 2100 last evening to 0430 this morning, a low of -3.3C with only 1 night last January at -3.4C colder.Nothing lower either in the whole of 2014!

oh dear another sad day for you, tut, Ci spoiling the fun

lovely sunny cold day with a breeze, coldest Max since 11/02/15 at 4.7C and coldest night since 18/03/15 with 0.8C and first ground frost since 2 May 2015.

thanks Julian

Same place as always. fair enough Julian but why not put your town in your avatar, it does make for more interesting reading when we do that please?

The station area where trains go up to the Jungraujoch or back down to Wengen or Grindelwald, height 6700ft http://www.bahnhof-scheidegg.ch/default.asp?itemid=107〈=e done that above Kichberg MANY years ago with the main railway line at the bottom!

Which forecast are you quoting or making up!? I saw nothing that suggested your area would have snow other than a few flakes!

The anomaly charts do not suggest any deep cold but with a flow n of west, just, then it is not going to be mild overall, unsettled also with the strength of the predicted flow at 500mb. Link below to ECMWF-GFS both of which are not totally unlike NOAA last evening but have a stronger flow and the trough into Europe is much more marked. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html not a bad outlook 6-10 days for the Alps ski resorts.

5cm at Wengen and 10cm at 7000ft, more predicted way down into the valley If you are snow starved then this link may give you a lift. http://www.lauberhorn.ch/en/?langId=2 even Derbyshire web cams with a fair number showing snow down to about 8-900ft http://www.derbyshireheritage.co.uk/Menu/webcams/camlist.php or the ski spots in Scotland seems not to be working this morning-sorry