johnholmes

hefty showers and a noticeable breeze with sunny spells, the day max of 7.2C is the coldest day here since 20 February!

Dry with a fair amount of cloud and a low of 4.8C, as Pit posts=the lowest for quite a while; in fact a quick scan shows since last month.

this weekend not a good idea with gale force N'ly for a time on Saturday, Sunday might be okay?

dry with fairly small amounts of cloud, trees swaying again, a low of 9.5C, so 4C above the average.

Most of the anomaly charts seem to be quite firm on the idea of a 3 trough 3 ridge northern hemisphere set up. This is often slow to break down, although minor shifts in positions of these major patterns can make quite a difference to surface weather in any location. For instance the UK. Just where will the main ridge-trough axis be say 5 days or more from now. ECMWF-GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php NAEFS http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara= Is the MJO (GFS) any guide for this? Currently in a low orbit showing 2 and predicted to show not much change other than a decreasing orbit value 2 equates in November to http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/NovemberPhase2all500mb.gif and for December to http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/DecENMJOphase2all500mb.gif So the flow of Pm air, sometimes rPM with not much of Tm seems the most likely into December to me?

I wonder where 'up here' is? I have no idea of your nearest town so that comment is not much use to me I am afraid. Please put your nearest town in your avatar ? thank you

Gust to 58mph at the airport late last evening but almost calm here now, 3/4 cover CuSc Ac Ci and a low of 7.4C

this table seems to suggest 19 December? http://www.ukweathercams.co.uk/sunrise_sunset_times_by_month.php?id=13116&ts=1450460504

you have to remember it written for other forecasters to read for guidance on producing their forecasts. A bit like the senior man summary at Exeter which we do not see.

I have to disagree with that. The anomaly charts regularly pick up 6-15 days ahead when a marked change of upper air pattern, a wavelength change is going to occur. This with careful use will indicate both bursts of tropical air in summer and cold air outbreaks in winter. They were slower than usual with this current one but did give perhaps 5 days maybe 7 of the upper air changing direction indicating colder weather developing. see below for NOAA chart issued last Saturday, prior to that ECMWF-GFS had first hinted at this on the Thursday. anomaly chart sat 14 nov for net wx.doc sorry it has copied my whole November anomaly chart file, you will find it for Sat 14 nov if you scroll down

It will probably track out into the N Sea over NE England, north of Newcastle.

dry, mostly cloudy with a low early on of 8.5C

dry and fairly cloudy but some breaks giving a nice orange glow as the sun rises, mild with a low so far of 10.3C. Very slight rain in the early hours=0.2mm

beware of trying to read too much into the NOAA daily assessments. Obviously they are top notch, their equivalent to our senior man at Exeter. But remember what they write is about their neck of the woods as is that from Exeter. Sadly, other than snippets from Fergie we have no access to a similar professional input as they do in America. Watch the long wave patterns for hints of changes downwind into the Atlantic and western Europe/UK. It takes time to be confident in how to use them but it does give a decent insight into what the upper pattern, which is what largely governs the surface patterns evolving, may do in the 5-15 day period.

I've been on this site for 10 years or so. Yet I am still surprised by the amount of personal digs at folk. Heavens above we all came on here, I think, to start with because we love talking about the weather. It would be a deadly dull world if we all liked or disliked exactly the same things, weather or anything else. It IS going to get colder, by next weekend, some folk will see snow falling, some lucky ones (assuming you want this) will see snow lying. How long it will last is not yet clear. So why not enjoy and respect each other for not having the same views?

at 850mb, the surface values will be more relevant I would think for at least 1-3 days due to a surface high? Might be wrong. It probably will mean the end of wintry showers though.

I am not sure what bias is in this context. Is it perhaps the difference NOT of the model to its past but more simply the ACTUAL heights for example as an average in November over x number of years. Not sure what time scale they would use, one sees 61-00 and others? Ideas?

Just goes to show how quickly the weather can change

It is really interesting in some situations to see how much difference between say Pit, myself and PM in rainfall totals, bearing in mind accuracy, exposure etc. Last night very little rain here after 5.0mm during the day and you both show similar totals and it fits in for all 3 of us with the radar suggested totals. The report from TM again reinforces the sharp distinction and possible rain shadow that is quite often a feature of this smallish area. I notice that stations SE and E of here reporting more than myself or one other about 4 miles NE of me. delete that bit, just noticed he shows 18.2mm and we are usually within about 10% of one another!

Latest EC-GFS 500mb output, much as before with the cold look but notice that the upper ridge is being moved east so the deepest cold air is also moved east. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html for comparison the NOAA 6-10 from last night below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php and to see how another 500mb anomaly chart looks the NAEFS output last evening http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&map=1&runpara= So for sure cold is coming but for how long is the question. Who will get snow, etc?

Dry, cloudy and fairly breezy after slight rain overnight. Very mild again, 9C higher than the lowest on Saturday morning; low of 14.2C. This is higher than the average low in any summer month. It sure will be a shock to the system when the cold air gets in!

NOAA has joined ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly charts with, see below, a noticeable ridge for the Greenland area and an equally noticeable trough east of the UK. It is only one output but it is rare for these 3 to be very similar and the pattern they are predicting not to occur. So nextweekend and possibly 3-5 days it would seem for a colder upper flow into the UK. Beyond that and a more westerly looks like being the pattern. That is based on the past 24 hours but it may change. As to how cold, when/where any snow then obviously that comes several days from now with the synoptic models. CAUTION:- Do be aware that predicting anything falling from the sky is very difficult even 12 hours ahead, snow and you need to add about 6 possibly 8 more variables into the mix, obviously one of these is your height above sea level. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

what? Try the front page, watch the regular updates by TV forecasters, go to the Met O web site. What more do you want. Even in the highly charged model thread, forever searching for cold there are charts and comments from folk about the amounts of rain predicted.

Picking up on the last sentence from phil UK Met warning for designated areas, part of their text I am not 100% sure but this amount of rain must be a very rare event even for the areas mentioned? 250 mm is 10 INCHES of rain! This flow is expected to bring a period of heavy and persistent rain, with 50-100 mm of rain falling in many areas. However, as much as 200 to 250 mm may fall across some of the most exposed high ground.

yes the updated 0130 issue has no wording such as greenland suggests. Time again will tell whether the supposed quote is correct or made up!