johnholmes

yep thanks you the one not that it gives any hope to cold lovers in my view. A year or two ago IF it climbed through the average and stayed some way above it then I reckoned on a 'cold' spell being highly probable anywhere from 15-25 days later! I got at least 3 maybe 4 where it worked well but 2 or 3 where it did not. ah well!

man ythanks phil that is what I wanted

to me that Met 6-15 day outlook is spot on!

thank you for your reply but no, it is the one I've got a photo shot of from anomaly charts several years ago but I cannot find it on the web. Very simplified type but it suited my approach?

a request folks? Has anyone got the link to the 30mb pole temperatures currently, I used to have it but cannot find it now? thanks not this one by the way http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/ this one

not bad at height around the Jungfrau area, Eengen, Murren, Grindewald as the videos show, snow lying okay down to about 4600ft (Lauberhorn finish area) http://panocam.skiline.cc/maennlichen/en-GB

ditto, along with agreeing with what Paul has posted. I will be more convicned though when all 3 of the anomaly charts show agreement of any marked change. The comment Paul makes about most the the northern hemosphere being not far from a westerly, this at 500mb, is very true. If you want a straw to clutch at then look at the ECMWF-GFS 500mb anomaly this morning. For once they look fairly similar and for the first time since they predicted the last colder spell, they both show a north of west flow into the UK. Not major but it is there, the second day for EC but the first for GFS. So far NOAA at either 6-10 or 8-15 shows nothing like this. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Beyond 15 days=20 December I do not pretend to know or be able to forecast so far ahead. One thing to watch for as you eagerly scan each output, and as Paul says at F1 then see how similar each run is to its last one (same time) is that the changes are consistent so 360h today shows the same at 336h the next day and so on.

Cloudy with the odd spot of very slight rain in the strong breeze, gusting 55 mph at the airport, a low of 12.1C, over 12C higher than the average daytime maximum!

John Holmes sees it in the 500mb anomaly charts" I wonder who suggested that?

dry and looking pretty much a clear sky after rain last evening, 7.2mm yesterday, a low of 6.2C, 8.4C now

I saw the first indication some 6 days out but not before. I find it rare that their 8-15 pickes up anything before the 6-10 does and then very often it follows suite. There have been exceptions but not many in all the years I have been watching. Odd really. In this instance the very first suggestion was, without trawling back through the charts, was either the Thursday or Friday before the event developed. If you like I can link you to the whole November data I saved, 19 pages long!

will this link do mucka requ 3 dec 15.doc no idea where a chart for March came from!

The cold snap about two weeks ago was not supposed to happen because of the background signals. I'm not saying some big freeze will just appear but that it would be wrong to rule out some colder snaps. Not sure where you get that idea from Nick, the anomaly charts showed this likely to happen at least 6 days prior to it occurring. They also, to my eyes, suggested countrywide cold for 3-5 days. So not a bad predict really. Perhaps you still disagree, I can post the relevant charts to illustrate my post if you wish?

8.4Cmy lowest this morning, not as mild as some recent mornings, now on 8.6C, already 2-3C higher than the average maximum, cloudy but dry after 3.8mm overnight.

I will say one thing for you Fred, your optimism is consistent. Sadly that is not something GFS which you quote has been. Not once this week, until the 00z this morning, using the 00Z and 12Z runs has it shown the pattern you show. Correct me if I am wrong please. Initially a few days ago you were showing a chart for Saturday 12 December now it is Sunday 13 December. One run Fred out of 7, not a very good record. Most of us would like you to be right but your optimism is fine but misplaced in my view. Using those unpopular, with some, anomaly charts I use, see link below, other than the possibility of a 36-48 hour burst behind an active surface system I cannot see anything wintry in the next two weeks? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Of course it is ‘possible’ that the fairly small +ve 500mb anomaly that is edged out from north America ‘may’ change things but it is about a 25% probability I would suggest at the moment. Obviously I watch these anomaly charts closely every day and rest assured if they seem to be moving to what you are suggesting then I will make a post saying that. The MJO seems to have ‘gone off on one’ as you might say but all predictions in the GFS suite suggest it having little impact on northern hemisphere weather at the moment. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml For the time being cold lovers continue to search for what they hope for but what most indicators suggest is not going to appear this side of Christmas in anything other than fairly fleeting form.

Unusually I am showing all the post. Qu=WHY when you link to the information do you have repeat it yourself. Do you think we are not capable of clicking on the link and reading what UK Met actually poste?

Anyway the 500mb EC this morning but not GFS shows an interesting idea. IF it is correct is it the first indication of some kind of block developing way west, and possibly from the area Nick mentions, link below I hope! http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Dry, clear with no cloud, looks like no wind and the current low is 9.2C, some 6.5C above the 19 year average for here!

Time will tell Steve, however at 10 days NOAA give two bites of the cherry so to speak, 6-10 and 8-14, neither have any signal, however slight, at least to my eyes, of any suggestion YET, of the change you mention. Six days from now who knows, so by 7 December they should, if it is going to occur, be showing something? By then assuming that to be correct then both main models should be showing something similar as well and consistently.

for those looking for hope re cold then look away now as the NOAA anomaly hold out no hope in the 6-15 day time period! http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Only just on the new set up rain at first soon cleared to dry but lot of cloud, has now turned much milder, 12c from the early hours of 1c

Little to show yet on anomaly charts of any marked change in next two weeks

grief lad do you ever stop moaning.