johnholmes

hi Chris I don't think that the signal out to 14 December on the NOAA anomalies shows anything that would 'allow' if that is the correct term, for a long cold spell. They don't really look conducive to more than any 24-48 cold burst behind one of the active surface weather systems. I only quoted the MJO output as it can give a lead when nothing else is doing that. I honestly do not know what may happen beyond 14 December from the data I regularly use. Another 4-5 days and the anomaly charts SHOULD give some view one way or the other out into that time scale. of course they may be wrong but I would be reluctant to support any long term change if none of them show some kind of hint at the very least.

thanks Fred but is it not possible to give links or show the actual chart you feel is representative of your views as routine. It would sure help me to understand what you mean-please? The other comment I would make and will perhaps get howled down is this. Currently the GFS is not consistent that deep cold will flood south from about 14 December. Not surprising really considering how far away that is. No data from ECMWF goes that far out. What other help can we get for data around 14 December. You guessed it, the anomaly charts. So let us have a look, NEAFS goes well beyond that date so what is it suggesting? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&map=1&runpara= looking at the output T+300 and it has a slight indication of a pattern at 500mb than could give a 500mb flow from a point north of west. But to me it is only, at the moment, a slight hint, nothing like the full blow deep cold suggested by GFS. The only other help might be the NOAA 8-14, link below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php That shows no suggestion, and does not over the last couple of runs of the 500mb flow setting up to give a cold north of west flow into the UK. How about the MJO, GFS version? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml It is too close to the origin to be of any predictive use so no help there. To me, yet, not enough solid and consistent prediction for any major change in the current flow pattern, south of and north of. Put another way a continuation of the unsettled, at times rather wet and windy, with temporary incursions of cold Polar air, more especially for the northern part, principally Scotland and occasionally N Ireland and the more northern parts of northern England at times. Won't be popular I know but to those new to watching the model thread it is as objective as I can be. I suppose one could say a north to south split with colder interludes more likely, at least with snow which is what most are searching for, in the north.

it might help Fred if you for once actually posted charts to illustrate your views.

Cloudy with some light rain now and then, a low of 3.2C mow on 5.0C

I posted this in another thread but it may be of interest here This is available on BBC News http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-34908482 I can add my own little bit of evidence, not of the Rhone glacier which is on the other side of where I ski, but on my side into the Lauterbrunnen valley is it also noticeable. I have visited the Jungfrau region for over 40 years and on this side of the mountain the glacier has retreated by a noticeable amount in that time. Where there was ice 10-20 years agi now there is just the gravel/dirt left behind with small Alpine flowers growing in the mid to late summer months. For whatever reason this glacier has retreated. Oddly enough when in New Zealand about 10 years ago one of those we visited had increased by a small distance.

dry at the moment but mostly cloudy, a low of 6.3C, slight rain or shower around 0300=0.4mm

the latest shows its position for 18z http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

There is the slightest and I mean slightest hint of this in the NOAA suite of anomaly charts!

More straw clutching for deep long lasting cold, rather than enjoying the models in the near time frame with wind, rain, snow, frost all likely in a good part of the UK. ah well, it takes all sorts. Just to cheer those cold seekers up-the anomaly charts show no sign of anything more significant than the next 24-96 hours showing on the synoptic models. That will take us into the end of the 2nd week in December. I'll get my coat!

Spots of rain here after an almost classic warm front cloud pattern, Ci-Cs-As (type 1) -Type 2 with Sc moving in beneath it. T=6.5C

Yes, it does make me long for the days gone by when I could ski morning and afternoon. Now some very gentle skiing straddling the lunch break, maybe 3 hours in total. Still it is wonderful to be able to do that in such fabulous scenery. 30 years on and the area still seems as magical as the first visit. Not long to go now. Enjoy your skiing and scenery, I do envy you living there.

A much nicer day in your area Paul than the Jungfrau, all pisted and made ready, tables, chairs out at the restaurants yesterday, today=snow and fog on the mountain. http://www.bahnhof-scheidegg.ch/default.asp?itemid=107〈=e All the details and photos/videos on this link for the area http://www.jungfrau.ch/tourismus/reiseinfos/webcams/webcams/ Must be windy on the Murren-Shilthorn side as the cable car and funicular are not operating

about 2-3/8 Ci otherwise clear with a touch of ground frost; lowest so far is 2.4C

fairly cloudy, dry with a low of 7.9C, currently 10.5C so seeming mild

The data you have there and the result is quite interesting. It is not that far from either the lrf done by Ed and Tony or the base line model outputs from UK Met? We will see on 1 March 2016. Personally I have never really rated analogue methods but maybe I should take them more seriously.

thanks Jo for a fascinating look into the ladies dress problems let alone getting the words out right in the time slot, probably reduced just as you start to speak. I remember Barbara Edwards soon came to hate being on tv for the rotten messages about her appearance she used to get.

Interesting inputs from Fergie. In the time scale I try to forecast for the anomaly charts are somewhat mixed, The ECMWF-GFS version, back again this morning, show two differing ideas, one with a flattish westerly flow the other with one south of west with a marked trough into the far west of Europe. NOAA 6-10 last evening was a bit more like GFS. Overall the outputs over the last few days do seem to suggest that the flow is tending to be a shade south of west not the shade north of west of a few days ago. The NOAA 8-15 also supports this idea. With the relatively strong flow at 500mb across the Atlantic into the UK it does suggest some deepish surface lows at times which seems likely to lead to quite large variations in surface temperatures ahead of and behind these systems. No sign on these charts, yet, of any marked change in pattern. links below sorry the EC-GFS will not open again= I will copy the image I got earlier and post it shortly NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

posted in the other thread but copied into here, Wow, I have so far only scanned the main text but read the summary. What a huge amount of work has gone into this and the many factors so well illustrated and explained. As to the forecast, it all reads coherently and looks consistent and sensible. The wash up in March will be interesting to see how not only the Net Wx forecast panned out but also the others shown in the text. Thank you very much both of you, now to read it fully, well recommended from me anyway folks.

Wow, I have so far only scanned the main text but read the summary. What a huge amount of work has gone into this and the many factors so well illustrated and explained. As to the forecast, it all reads coherently and looks consistent and sensible. The wash up in March will be interesting to see how not only the Net Wx forecast panned out but also the others shown in the text. Thank you very much both of you, now to read it fully, well recommended from me anyway folks.

Lowest ended up at 3.1C 40 minutes ago

a lot of blue/clear sky with a low of 3.7C so far

On Saturday, November 28, 2015 the winter sports season begins in Grindelwald , Wengen and Mürren . In recent days, new snow is about half a meter like just issued with 40cm at height and 30cm in Wengen Not sure but think this is a week earlier than last year. So many other centres should be open this weekend. I assume for the weekend only until further into December, snow permitting!

We obviously see things differently with regard to anomaly charts. That is if you are referring specifically to those you see me use. Over 7-8 years I have found them correct 70% of the time at 6-12 days, my interpretation of that period from the 6-10 and 8-15 day outputs, largely from NOAA but also using the ECMWF-GFS (they seem to have disappeared in the format I like just recently), and that includes a prediction of changing the wavelength of the main trough-ridge pattern to give quite different weather to what is occurring at day 0. Also it applies to those occasions when they show no change in the upper air pattern is the most likely outlook. I do almost always post after looking at other available data in that time scale, other anomaly 500mb charts, synoptic models, MJO etc. Folk can judge whether my predictions based on them is as I suggest above or not. Certainly they are not infallible and neither am I. Too many years experience of having egg on face for that during 30+ years in the trade. But I do disagree with some of your comments in your post about how useful they are. Still it would be a dull old Net Wx if we all agreed. providing we discuss and at times disagree politely with one another then other ideas are how we individually and science as a whole moves forward.

hi Z A nice idea, I like it, you have said clearly what you are basing your forecasts on so hopefully you will not get too many moaning you are cherry picking or whatever else. thank you.

9.8C here and the cloud has gone with almost completely blue skies, but I have no idea how long this may last!