johnholmes

Well with the rain after 2000 last evening and today a total of 25.6mm and muggy most of the day with a max of 20.4C

Tropical Storms/Hurricanes that get into he N Atlantic have enormous amounts of heat and moisture in them. Far more than the usual N Atlantic weather systems. This makes the hugely complex meteorology even more complex and difficult to handle. So this one is little different, if at all, from similar disturbances than get caught up in the Atlantic weather patterns.

The answer is almost certainly no. The upper pattern and the sequence of development of the two systems is quite different.

Interesting in both the short term and longer as to the actual surface chart be it ex hurricane or longer term. The link below shows NOAA idea on its track, seems a touch further south than earlier predictions http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025053.shtml?5-daynl#contents UK Met Fax chart link below http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 was issues last evening so maybe it is a shade further north than NOAA are suggesting? As to longer term then ECMWF-GFS remain at loggerheads as to the upper pattern pos 6 days with EC nearer to the NOAA 6-10 version, links below http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php NOAA has been pretty consistent in its suggestion of upper air pattern evolving so I would stick with it and EC rather than GFS. However, as always when ex hurricanes are involved in the initial stages of the model run then care needs to be exercised in just how the pattern will end up. The idea of +ve heights and possibly 500mb ridging NE of the UK does seem a reasonable pattern. This would allow the remnants of the ex storm to move either north to the west of the UK or into Biscay. So interesting model watching at various time scales.

Still a few spots of rain at times after a wet end to the evening and overnight,11.8mm, and very mild, the 'low' is 15.0 which is the average maximum for October.

Cloudy but dry at the moment, a low of 6.0 now up to 11.0

How about we get back to discussing what the title says please folks?

mushy is it possible for you NOT to want the last word about your and other folks interpretations please?

NOAA anomaly charts are pretty consistent and sequential in their upper air ideas but the ECMWF-GFS are less so. I suspect that the ex hurricane is the cause. I would go with the NOAA versions but with less confidence than usual until Joaquin is out of the way. links below http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Dry, fairly cloudy but some gaps in the Sc allowing sun out at times, no fog (in spite of Met O warning), no wind and a low of 8.4C, currently 11.2C

No fog but overcast, looking at the Davis the cloud came in about 0100 or so, a low of 5.7C then

The fog cleared much quicker, with the sun from a hazy sky rather than sky obscured as in previous days, so ble sky by about 0930.

dry but damp with the 6th day of morning fog, a low of 4.9C

Cantley September 2015 A month with few days of rain but just a touch above average total; totally dry for last 10 days. Mean T above average as was maximum. Last 4 morning’s thick fog, quite unusual for that consecutive number in any month Mean=13.6 (13.0) Avge Max=19.2 (17. Highest daytime=10th with 23.6 and coldest=14th with 14.8 Avge Min=8.1 (8.2) Coldest night=26th with 4.7 and warmest=12th with 12.8 Just 6 days with any rain at all, 7 with 0.2 mm or more and 6 with 1.0 mm or more. The wettest day was 15th with 7.8 mm. No thunder or frost hail or snow but 6 days with fog at 0900 clock time

The suggested track of the hurricane into the N Atlantic is interesting, if only to see how differently the 2 main models deal with it. Not looked at UK Met to see where it has it at 120 and 144.

sadly no reply from the long range folk

anybody watched this-wow-takes 20-25 minutes but inside the space station https://www.youtube.com/embed/doN4t5NKW-k

I gave the link to the series of charts in my post aboveMPG? Not sure that is as definite as you seem to suggest though? deleted as its last year! turned out about correct as well

The last issue of UK Met model output available to us is below http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob I have seen somewhere what may be there interpretation of this in their briefing to major users of their seasonal forecasts, not sure where that is on the forum?

Now 6 consecutive mornings with thick fog and a low of 7.2C I cannot ever remember 6 mornings with fog every morning either here or as a kid way before the clean air act.

For what it is worth below is my assessment this morning after going over several times the anomaly outputs for the past 3 days. Hard to see which is consistent in similar way to noaa with its change from ridging to troughing In a way ec is more like noaa but by any means in every way=jury out really, suspect most likely is ridginge/ne of uk and troughing to w with a s of w flow much as noaa but no marked concensus at the moment. The comments refer to post day 5-6 I suspect some of the upper air differences in the anomaly charts may well be due to Joaquin. GFS makes less of it than ECMWF in the latter stafes of the 00z run. e all know just how difficult any model of any type finds it in trying to get an accurate idea on what it will do in the North Atlantic. The latest NOAA advisory, see link below, shows it on Sunday off the east coast of America. So it is in the North Atlantic area by then.The GFS jetstream forecast shows the jet rather fragmented at that time but forcing the extHurricane/Tropical Storm to remain south. The ECMWF charts seem to push it on a more northerly track across the Atlantic. Fascinating to see what actually happens. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contents

Thick fog with sky obscured, about 150m visibility, a low of 6.3C. This is the fourth morning on the trot with fog, must be something of a record in any month for here?

using the anomaly charts there seems little doubt that troughing will become the main feature in the 6+ day outlook. Again it looks, in spite of day to day variations between one another and themselves, that ECMWF-GFS has led the way for the change before NOAA. To me this is really interesting as over 5 years, prior to this last year, that was a very very rare event. This must be the 4th or 5th time this has happened in the past 12 months. Of course it has still not happened but it looks a 70+% bet this evening. At least the flow is from south of west (at 500mb) although with a height of about 564DM and from the Gt Lakes area and further back from eastern Russia don't expect a heat wave. It also look fairly changeable or even unsettled with a fairly brisk 500mb flow and the trough pretty close to the UK. To me the flow does not suggest any very deep lows developing close to the uk. However, keep an eye on NOAA Hurricane outputs, just one getting into the Atlantic and the models do their equivalent of 'toys out of prams'.

actually see the sun now through the fog, the low was 6.3C

Sky obscured and dense fog again this is the 3rd consecutive day with fog.